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150+ datasets · 25 years of data · 0% AI
Updated Monthly
25+ Years of Data
Zero AI · 100% Manual
Know the probability. Then decide whether to click.
We've manually back-tested 25+ years of price history across 30+ markets — so you know exactly how often a streak reverses, a range extends, or a level holds, before you risk anything on it.
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Ask The Database
Instant Answer
After three bearish days in a row on USD/JPY, what's the probability of a bullish reversal on day four?
74.8%
Sample: 1,200+ streaksConfidence: 95%
Every number manually calculated. No AI, no black boxes.
Datasets
150+
Quantified probability datasets
Data Points
10M+
Historical bars analysed
Markets
30+
Instruments covered
History
25yr
Average dataset depth
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The Problem
Most traders are guessing.
That's why most traders lose.
You watch price action, scroll indicators, follow signals, scroll Twitter — and still click the button without knowing what's statistically likely to happen next. Here's what that looks like in practice:
Without a base rate, gut feel is just gambling with extra steps.
"It looks bullish, I'll long it."
Without a base rate, gut feel is just gambling with extra steps. 70% of "obvious" setups aren't.
"My indicator says buy."
Most indicators are curve-fit on the same 2 years of data. No sample size, no edge, no edge case.
"I'll just reverse my last loss."
Revenge trading without a probabilistic framework turns one bad trade into a blown account.
"I checked the news, it should go up."
Narrative ≠ probability. Markets ignore 90% of news. The data tells you what the other 10% will do.
SmartFinanceData gives you the base rate — the actual historical probability of what happens after every setup you trade. So you're not guessing. You're trading on the same statistical foundation hedge funds use.
Real Data · Real Edge
Probabilities That Change How You Trade
These aren't guesses, signals, or opinions. Every number below is derived from thousands of historical sessions across 25+ years — and you can drill into the full sample, date range, and methodology behind each one.
Free Preview
GBP/USD forms a higher low compared to the previous day 70.00% of the time during bullish days — seen across 4,200+ daily closes and 43 years of data (1983 - 2026).
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📈 EUR/USD only moves 500+ pips above the open on bearish days 21.2% of the time — 92% of bearish days never move 500 pips above the open.
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🛢️ USD/CAD bullish days close 700+ pips above the open 65.9% of the time — likely influenced by its strong negative correlation with Oil.
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USD/JPY reverses after 3 consecutive bearish days 74.8% of the time — one of the most reliable streak-reversal signals in FX.
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🥇 EUR/CAD has maintained a statistically bearish long-term bias, with 52.3% of daily closes finishing bearish versus 47.5% bullish (2001–2026).
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If AUD/USD rises for 3+ consecutive bullish days, the next day holds a 74.4% chance of closing bearish — seen across 1,200+ bullish streaks in 33 years (1993 - 2026).
This is 6 of 500+ documented probabilities.
Every major pair, index, and commodity — fully searchable, fully sourced, no paywall on insight.
Streak Reversal Probabilities — Selected Instruments
Probabilities based on 15–24 years of daily data. Sample sizes ≥ 200 per bucket. Full methodology published for every dataset.
Ask The Database
Type a Question. Get a Backtested Answer.
Every question below is a real record in the database — not a guess, not an opinion. Click through to see the full sample size, methodology and date range behind each number.
e.g. “How often does GBP/USD close bearish after 3 up days?”
500+ records
Live Query
Q
What % of days close bullish vs. bearish for EUR/CAD?
Bullish/bearish bias · 2001–2026 · daily closes
52.3%
Q
How far does EUR/USD move above the open on bearish days?
Range extension · 24yr data · open-to-high
21.2%
Q
How often does GBP/USD form a higher low after a bullish close?
Higher lows / lower highs · 43yr data · 4,200+ closes
70.0%
Q
How far above the open do USD/CAD bullish days close?
Range extension · open-to-close · 700+ pip threshold
65.9%
Q
What are the odds USD/JPY reverses after 3 bearish days?
Streaks & reversals · 3-day bearish streak
74.8%
Q
What are the odds AUD/USD reverses after 3+ bullish days?
Streaks & reversals · 33yr data · 1,200+ streaks
74.4%
Showing 6 of 500+ indexed questions across 30+ instruments
Browse All Datasets
How To Use It
From "Should I take this trade?" to "I know the odds" in 3 steps
SmartFinanceData is built to plug into the way you already trade — not replace your strategy. Here's the actual workflow our top users run every session.
01
Identify the setup
You're looking at a 3-bullish streak on EUR/USD before London open. Note the instrument, the streak, the session, and the day-of-week.
→ Search the database02
Pull the base rate
Open the matching dataset. You'll see the exact historical probability of what happens next, the sample size, and the confidence interval.
→ Compare to your thesis03
Size & execute with edge
If the base rate supports the trade, size accordingly. If it doesn't — skip. Either way, you're no longer clicking on a feeling.
→ Trade with dataReal Example
How a trader used one dataset to skip a bad trade
Walkthrough · USD/JPY
3 bearish days in a row. The market "felt" ready to reverse. The data said otherwise.
A trader came into the London session seeing 3 consecutive bearish closes on USD/JPY. Every charting forum he checked was calling for a long on day 4. The trade "looked" obvious.
Before clicking buy, he opened the USD/JPY bearish streak probability dataset.
1
He found the right dataset in 12 seconds
Filtered the database to "USD/JPY · daily · 3-day bearish streak" — pulled the historical base rate.
2
He saw 74.8% chance of reversal
Across 1,200+ historical streaks since 1983, day 4 closed bullish 74.8% of the time. Strong, repeatable signal.
3
He cross-checked session & day-of-week
Filtered for "London open · Wednesday" and the probability held at 71%. No reason not to take the trade.
+1.4R
Day 4 closed bullish at the London high. The trade worked. More importantly, the next "obvious" setup that the data rejected, he skipped — and saved himself a 2R loss.
Coverage
Every Major Market, Covered
30+ instruments across Forex, Indices, Commodities and Crypto — each one with multiple probability datasets and full historical depth.
Data Library
150+ Probabilistic Datasets
Streak analytics, range distributions, session bias, market structure — the data you actually need to make decisions, organized the way you trade.
Pro tip: Layer multiple datasets to stack your edge — streak reversal + session bias + range stats all pointing the same direction. Confluence is where the real money is.
Unlock all 150+ datasets →
Methodology
How The Data Is Built
Every probability on this site is built the same way: raw data in, statistical processing, documented methodology out. No AI, no black boxes, no shortcuts.
Step 01
Raw OHLC Ingestion
We ingest Daily and 1H OHLC price data across 30+ instruments — going back 25 years on most major/minor pairs. Every bar validated and cleaned before it touches the pipeline.
- 25 years of OHLC price history across majors & minors
- Data normalised to daily and 1H bars
- Outliers, gaps and broker anomalies flagged and removed
Step 02
Statistical Processing
All datasets are manually reviewed and processed through structured Excel-based analysis. Every probability has a valid sample size and statistical foundation behind it — no parameter tuning, no cherry-picking.
- Tested across 25+ years of historical market data
- Complete Excel datasets available for independent review and verification
- Thousands of manually verified data points analysed across multiple market conditions
Step 03
Actionable Insights
Data is segmented by timeframe, day-of-week, streak, volatility regime and market condition. Directly applicable to your trading setup — no PhD required, no translation layer between "data" and "trade."
- Session splits: Asian, London, New York and overlap windows
- Day-of-week and day-of-month breakdowns for calendar edge
- Streaks and volatility context: what follows what, and how often
Zero AI in our analysis. At SmartFinanceData, we take a different approach from the growing wave of AI-generated trading analysis flooding the internet. Every probability, statistical model, ratio, and market insight published on this site is calculated manually using custom-built spreadsheets, structured datasets, and rule-based mathematical analysis — then individually reviewed, validated, and uploaded by hand. We do not use AI-generated predictions, machine learning models, automated sentiment engines, or "black box" systems that produce numbers without transparency. Every figure is derived from real market data, logical statistical processes, and repeatable calculations designed to prioritize accuracy, consistency, and clarity over hype.
Why SmartFinanceData
How this is different from signals, indicators and "AI tools"
We don't tell you when to buy or sell. We give you the historical probability of every setup so you can make better decisions.
Signal services
- Black box — you don't see the math
- Often curve-fit to recent winners
- No sample size, no confidence interval
- Tells you when to click, not why
- Stops working the moment you subscribe
Indicators & EAs
- Static rules, not statistical edge
- No underlying data shown
- Same signal on every pair & timeframe
- You still don't know the base rate
- Backtests you can't reproduce
SmartFinanceData
- Full transparency — every dataset shows the math
- 25+ years of data, manually verified
- Sample size & confidence on every number
- Teaches you why a setup has edge
- Works across regimes, pairs, and timeframes
Pricing
Simple, Transparent Access
One subscription, every dataset, every market. Backed by a 30-day no-questions-asked refund — try the whole platform risk-free.
25+
Years backtested
historical data
historical data
150+
Quantified market
datasets
datasets
30+
Instruments — Forex,
Crypto, Indices
Crypto, Indices
0% AI
All data manually
calculated & verified
calculated & verified
🏷 Billed annually — locks in the lowest per-month rate
⭐ Most Popular
Core
Core Access
All-currency probability data, expanded daily analysis, and the key tools to trade with an edge.
$49.99
/ year
Just $4.17 / month — billed annually
All Currency Datasets — every FX pair covered
150+ Quantified market datasets
25+ years historical backtest data
Expanded Daily Analysis — full session breakdowns
Key Trading Tools & cheatsheets
Strategy Builder & Confluence Scanner
Python scripts & full indicator suite
Best for
Pro
Pro Access
Everything in Core, plus the full quant toolkit — Strategy Builder, Confluence Scanner, Python scripts and every indicator.
$97.99
/ year
Just $8.17 / month — billed annually
Everything in Core, plus:
Strategy Builder Suite
Confluence Scanner
Python trading & analysis scripts
All Indicators & Tools — full library
Cheatsheets — complete set
Best for
🏆 Best Value
Lifetime
Lifetime Access
Everything in Core and Pro, forever — pay once, own it for life. No renewals, no recurring fees, ever.
$199
one-time
Pay once — yours for life
Everything in Core & Pro, including:
Strategy Builder & Confluence Scanner
Python scripts & full indicator suite
Every future dataset & tool — free updates forever
Priority support & early access to new releases
30-day money-back guarantee — try it risk-free
Best for
30-Day Money-Back Guarantee — No Questions Asked
Try Core, Pro, or Lifetime for a full month. If the data doesn't change how you trade, email us and we'll refund every cent. You literally cannot lose.
30-day refund
No questions asked. Full refund if it's not for you.
Cancel anytime
No auto-renew traps. No hidden fees. Ever.
Secure checkout
Payments via Stripe — bank-level encryption.
Real humans
Email support answered by the team that builds the data.
Compare every feature side by side
| Feature | Core | Pro | Lifetime |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Coverage | |||
| Forex instruments | All currency pairs | All currency pairs | All currency pairs |
| Analytics Datasets | |||
| Quantified datasets | 150+ | 150+ | 150+ |
| Historical backtest data | 25+ years | 25+ years | 25+ years |
| Expanded daily analysis | |||
| Session bias (London / NY) | |||
| Market structure datasets | |||
| Tools & Content | |||
| Key trading tools & cheatsheets | |||
| Full MT4/MT5 indicator suite | — | ||
| Python trading & analysis scripts | — | ||
| Strategy Builder Suite | — | ||
| Confluence Scanner | — | ||
| Pricing & Support | |||
| Billing | $49.99 / year | $97.99 / year | $199 one-time |
| Renewals | Annual | Annual | Never |
| Support | Priority email | ||
| Money-back guarantee | 30 days | 30 days | 30 days |
Dataset Types
What's Inside
📊
CoreStreak Analytics
Consecutive bullish/bearish candle probabilities across H1–MN timeframes.
📐
CoreRange Lab
Statistical pip range distributions per session and day of week.
🕐
CoreSession Bias
Asian, London, and NY session directional bias with sweep probabilities.
🧱
ProMarket Structure
Supply & demand zone validation data, LTF-to-HTF break probabilities.
📅
CoreProbability Calendar
Daily updated calendar showing high-probability setups.
📉
ProWick & Sweep Data
Equal highs/lows sweep probabilities, large wick reversal stats.
⚙️
ProStrategy Builder
Build and backtest multi-confluence strategies.
🔬
ProConfluence Scanner
10 pro features: watchlist, alert system, heat map, correlation matrix, trade journal.
Start today · 30-day refund
Edge isn't luck.
It's in the data.
Join hundreds of traders using SmartFinanceData to validate setups, understand session behaviour, and build probabilistic confidence before every trade. 30-day money-back guarantee. Cancel anytime.
30-day refund
Cancel anytime
Secure via Stripe
Instant access
FAQ
Frequently Asked Questions
Everything you need to know before diving into the data. Can't find your answer? Get in touch.
Each dataset analyses thousands of historical price events — streaks, sessions, range breakouts — and returns a percentage probability for what happens next. For example: "After 4 consecutive bearish days, price reverses 74.8% of the time." Every figure has a stated sample size and confidence interval so you can judge statistical reliability yourself.
Most datasets cover 20–25 years of daily OHLC data, typically from 2000 to present. Some instruments with shorter histories (certain crypto pairs, newer indices) have reduced depth, which is always stated on the dataset page. Free-tier users can access a representative sample; Pro unlocks the full history.
Yes — CSV and Excel export is included with Pro and Institutional plans. Each export contains the underlying event log (date, instrument, streak count, outcome, etc.) alongside the summary probability tables, so you can build your own filters and backtests on top of our data.
SmartFinanceData is a standalone analytics platform — it doesn't plug directly into your charting software. However, the probabilities are designed to be applied manually as a pre-trade checklist or decision filter. Pro users can export data to CSV and load it into any tool that accepts flat files.
Core gives you every currency dataset, 150+ quantified datasets, 25+ years of backtested history, expanded daily analysis, and our key trading tools and cheatsheets. Pro includes everything in Core plus the Strategy Builder Suite, Confluence Scanner, Python scripts, and the full indicator library. Lifetime includes everything in Core and Pro for a single one-time payment instead of an annual renewal. See the full comparison table above.
Every probability is derived from a rules-based event scanner applied to historical OHLC data. For example: "After a 3-bullish-streak, what happens on day 4?" — we count every occurrence, record the outcome, and output the percentage. All calculations are automated and reproducible. Full methodology is available on our Methodology page.
Yes — Pro and Lifetime plans include CSV and Excel export for every dataset, containing the underlying event log alongside the summary probability tables. That means you can load the data into your own spreadsheets, scripts, or analysis tools. We don't currently offer a live REST API; if that's something you need, get in touch and let us know.
Our core datasets use daily OHLC bars, which we believe offer the best balance of statistical significance and practical application for swing and position traders. Some datasets include H4 and weekly variants — check individual product pages. Intraday M15 and H1 datasets are currently in beta for select instruments.
Pro and Institutional datasets are updated monthly, with each update adding the prior month's daily bars to the event database and recalculating all probabilities. The live ticker on the homepage shows indicative prices but is not used in any backtested calculations.
No — and we're very clear about this. Historical probabilities describe what has happened across thousands of past instances; they do not guarantee any future outcome. All data should be used as one input among many in a disciplined trading process, never as a standalone signal. Please read our methodology page for full statistical disclosures.
We currently cover 30+ instruments across Forex (major and minor pairs), Equity Indices (S&P 500, NASDAQ, DAX, FTSE), Commodities (Gold, Silver, WTI Crude), and select Crypto pairs (BTC/USD, ETH/USD). The full coverage list is available on the Markets page, and new instruments are added quarterly.
Yes. Core and Pro are billed annually — you can turn off auto-renewal at any time from your account dashboard, and you'll keep access until the end of the current billing year. If you cancel within the first 30 days of any plan, you're covered by our money-back guarantee instead. Lifetime Access is a one-time payment with nothing to renew or cancel.
There's no separate free trial, but every plan — Core, Pro, and Lifetime — is covered by a 30-day, no-questions-asked money-back guarantee. Subscribe, use the full platform, and if it doesn't change how you trade within 30 days, request a full refund. Several free preview insights are also available on this page and across the site with no account required.
Absolutely. Pro and Institutional users can submit instrument requests through the support portal. We evaluate requests based on data availability and demand. Custom event patterns (e.g., specific streak lengths combined with session filters) are available via our Institutional consulting tier.
Every dataset includes the raw sample size and a confidence interval for each probability. We don't hide low-sample events — if an event has occurred fewer than 30 times historically, that's clearly stated. All rules are defined before scanning (no parameter tuning), and our methodology page links to the reproducible code structure.
No. SmartFinanceData provides pure probabilistic data — no buy/sell signals, no trade recommendations, no entry/exit calls. We believe traders should interpret data through their own frameworks and risk parameters. Our role is to supply statistically rigorous historical probabilities, not to tell you when to click the button.
Last thing
Two traders see the same chart.
Only one knows the odds.
The setup that loses 70% of the time — and the setup that wins 70% of the time — look almost identical on a chart. The difference is the data behind it. Try SmartFinanceData for 30 days. If it doesn't change how you trade, we'll refund every cent.
30-day refund
Cancel anytime
Secure via Stripe
Instant access