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DID YOU KNOW: GBP/USD Has A 77% Chance Of Closing Bearish On April 27th?

What Does The Data Show?

The table shows April 27th has closed bullish 21 times out of 28 weekday appearances since the beginning of our 39 year GBP/USD dataset (1984 - 2023). This translates to a 77.78% probability of GBP/USD closing bullish on April 27th every year on the daily timeframe! We've identified 2000+ similar days with odds exceeding 64% of closing bullish/bearish every year - including candlestick data for all days e.g., April 27th 1992, 1993, 1994, etc..

What Does The Data Show?
What Does The Data Show?

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Here's A Sneak Peak!

Analysis of EUR/USD reveals a limited capacity for sustained bullish momentum.    Extended streaks beyond four days are infrequent, comprising only 6.33% of all bullish streaks between 1999 to 2023. Single bullish days followed by a bearish day appeared 855 times, representing 51.04% of all observable bullish streak occurrences!

EUR/USD holds an 87.94% probability of reversing after 3+ consecutive bullish days. Monitor lower timeframes for bearish reversal signals (e.g., pin bar, bearish engulfing) at key levels to confirm the reversal and time your short entries.

EUR/USD shows a 50/50 chance of a reversal or continuation the day following a bullish close between 0.0% and 1.4%. Days exceeding 1.4% gains are exceptionally rare (only 116 instances in 24 years), challenging the notion large daily increases are commonplace, and hinting at caution when trading after such moves.

Don't assume significant bullish days guarantee further upside. Analysis shows a 50/50 chance of reversal or continuation after moves between 0.0% - 1.4%. Days exceeding +2% hold a slightly higher chance (55.88%) of closing bullish the following day, but require further testing and research.

The table above shows the probabilities of EUR/USD exceeding the lowest price recorded each bullish weekday (Low) by the end of the same week, based on that day's percentage increase in value.

Use these probabilities to optimize stop-loss and take-profit levels.

EUR/USD struggles to maintain extended bearish runs – a fact our data reinforces.   Analysis reveals 892 single day streaks, where a bearish day was immediately followed by a bullish reversal. Extended declines are rare, with streaks exceeding four consecutive bearish days accounting for a tiny 4.89% of all streak instances - only one 10-day bearish streak appeared in our entire dataset!

Contrary to popular belief, extended bearish streaks are uncommon and often lead to reversals. Don't fall for the momentum fallacy! Instead, use our probability tables to pinpoint high-probability bullish entries after 3+ bearish days.

After a bearish close between -0.0% and -1.4%, short-term direction becomes unpredictable, with an almost equal chance of a single candle reversal or continuation the next day. Daily declines exceeding -1.4% are highly rare (only 128 occurrences).

Don't assume a significant bearish day automatically translates to continued downside momentum. Analysis reveals a roughly 50/50 chance of reversal or continuation after moves between -0.0% and -1.4%, with only minor variations in the probabilities.

The table above shows the probabilities of EUR/USD exceeding the highest price recorded on each bearish weekday (High) by the end of the same week, based on that day's percentage decrease in value.

Use these probabilities to optimize stop-loss and take-profit levels.

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Our data-driven approach outperforms and improves most technical analysis strategies, removing any emotion from the decsion making process. Make informed decisions using facts and probabilities, not hunches or gut feelings.

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2081 High-Probability Days (+64% Odds) For Trading

Discover 2081+ days with bullish & bearish closing odds exceeding 64% every year. Our data-driven strategies and techniques can power your trading all year-round.

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Become a member to unlock complete access to our library of advanced charts, data-driven strategies, and probability insights for 22 popular currency pairs.

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  • Daily Closing Odds Probability (All Days)
  • 2081 Days With +64% Closing Probability
  • OHLC Data For All Historical +64% Days
  • Daily Bullish Streaks Frequency Graph
  • Daily Bearish Streaks Frequency Graph
  • Probability Data For Consecutive Days
  • Bullish Day Rise % Probability
  • Bearish Day Fall % Probability
  • Probability Data For Daily % Rises & Falls

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Here's a sneak peak at the data, graphs and analysis coming soon!

  • Daily Probability Breakdown (Mon to Fri)
  • Bullish Day Odds (If Prior Day Bullish)
  • Bearish Day Odds (If Prior Day Bearish)
  • 1-Hour Datasets & Analysis (Coming Soon!)
  • Strategies For Unique Market Events
  • High Prob Days Daily Bias Strategy
  • Daily High/Low Range Probability Scale
  • 1-Hour High/Low Break Probabiliity
  • More Tools/Charts/Insights

FAQ: Your Questions Answered!

Find answers to your top questions about our site and data below. Need more in-depth help about the charts and datasets presented? Contact us directly we're always happy to support your trading journey!

There’s no need for prior trading experience or extensive knowledge — only basic proficiency in placing trades and setting stop-loss orders. Implementing our strategies doesn’t necessitate the use of charts. All trading activities are conducted on the daily timeframe, with trades being closed at the end of each trading day. While future strategies may explore 1-hour and 15-minute timeframes, these aren't prerequisites for executing our daily strategies.

We supply data for 20 currency pairs, encompassing all major and minor currencies. Stay tuned as we broaden our market coverage to incorporate valuable commodities like gold, silver, and oil. Additionally, data from prominent global indices, including but not limited to the FTSE 100, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and DAX 100, will be integrated into our offerings.

The probability statistics tell you how likely a specific outcome is based on how often it's happened in the past.

Think of it like flipping a coin:

If our data shows a 76% probability of price closing bullish after five bullish days in a row, it's like saying that out of 100 similar situations, the price went up 76 times. Just like a coin has a 50/50 chance of landing heads or tails, these probabilities help you "weigh" the odds for different market scenarios.

Essentially, a higher percentage means there's a greater historical likelihood of that particular event happening again.

Currently, our charts and data focus on the daily timeframe unless otherwise noted. Each data point (occurrence) represents a single trading day. We're actively working to expand our analysis and will offer insights from shorter timeframes, including the 1-hour and 5-minute charts, in the near future.

We source our foundational data from Barchart Premium, a trusted and widely-used industry leader in market information. This, combined with our rigorous internal quality checks, ensures the accuracy of our analysis. We analyze massive amounts of price data, so you often see high occurrence counts for high-probability events – this underscores the statistical reliability and robustness of our insights.

We update our analysis at the beginning of each year to ensure you're always working with the most relevant market data. While you might see a high number of occurrences for those daily high-probability events, updating our core probabilities takes longer. This is because we need a large sample size to make sure the changes you're seeing are statistically reliable, not just random fluctuations.

Our goal is to provide trustworthy insights that give you a true edge. Sometimes, that means waiting for enough new data to make meaningful updates to those core probabilities.

Screenshot and copy/paste functions are disabled on our website. This is to protect our proprietary data and analysis, which are a core part of the value we provide to our members.

Unauthorized sharing of our insights undermines the exclusivity of our service. We take protecting our intellectual property seriously. Attempts to circumvent these restrictions will result in immediate account termination. We appreciate your cooperation in helping us maintain a fair and valuable service for our community.

Get ready for a major expansion of our datasets! The charts and datasets you see now are just the beginning of what we plan to offer in the near future.

Here's a quick taster:

Scalping & Intraday Strategies: High-probability setups revealed on the 1-hour and 5-minute charts, empowering you to capitalize on short-term moves.

Diversify Your Portfolio: Data-driven analysis for commodities and major indices, opening up new markets and trading opportunities.

Master Specific Setups: Pin bar probabilities dissected: time of day, market conditions, and how they impact your success rate.

News Trading Made Easier: Pre- and post-release analysis, helping you anticipate big moves and potential reversals around key economic events.

Profit From Extremes: Strategies tailored to unique events like new 30-day highs/lows, increasing your chances of catching significant moves.

We're committed to empowering your trading with the most comprehensive probability-based analysis suite.

Stay tuned for updates!

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