AUD/JPY: Essential Charts/Figures

Explore AUD/JPY with our suite of interactive charts and user-friendly drop-down menus. Our data provides key insights on notable price behaviors observed from August 27th, 2001 to January 1st, 2023. Our analysis reveals hidden patterns, price behaviors, and trading opportunities, offering a complete overview of AUD/JPY’s market dynamics.

• 
  Average Trading Volume: 140296
• 
  Start Of Data Range: 27 August 2001
• 
  End Of Data Range: 01 January, 2023
• 
  Highest Closing Price: 31 October 2007 (107.81)
• 
  Lowest Closing Price: 27 October 2008 (55.856)
• 
  Day With Largest Gain: 28 October 2008 (11.16%)
• 
  Day With Largest Loss: 24 October 2008 (-11.10%)
• 
  Week With Largest Gain: 13 October 2008 (5.84%)
• 
  Week With Largest Loss: 13 October 2008 (5.84%)
• 
  Day With Highest Volume: 18 October 2012 (1488946)
• 
  Day With Lowest Volume: 01 January 2018 (6159)

• 
  Mean: 0.010%
• 
  Median: 0.038%
• 
  Mode: 0.000%
• 
  Standard Error: 0.012%
• 
  Standard Deviation: 0.93%
• 
  Sample Variance: 0.009%
• 
  Kurtosis: 17.34
• 
  Skewness: -0.38
• 
  Range: 22.222%
• 
  Minimum Price Change: -9.943%
• 
  Maximum Price Change: 12.279%

• 
  Daily Close Bullish Probability: 52.3% (2985/5708 Days)
• 
  Daily Close Bearish Probability: 47.8% (2729/5708 Days)

Bullish Days

• 
  Daily Lower Low Probability: 24.16% (740/3063 Days)
• 
  Daily Higher Low Probability: 74.99% (2297/3063 Days)
• 
  Daily Lower High Probability: 30.23% (926/3063 Days)
• 
  Daily Higher High Probability: 69.51% (2129/3063 Days)

Bearish Days

• 
  Daily Lower Low Probability: 66.35% (1844/2645 Days)
• 
  Daily Higher Low Probability: 33.31% (880/2645 Days)
• 
  Daily Lower High Probability: 67.64% (1911/2645 Days)
• 
  Daily Higher High Probability: 31.49% (833/2645 Days)

• 
  Total Bullish Days In Dataset: 3063/5708
• 
  Total Bearish Days In Dataset: 2645/5708

Dataset Totals

• 
  Number Of Bullish Weeks: 674 (674/1230)
• 
  Number Of Bearish Weeks: 556 (556/1230)
• 
  Number Of Bullish Months: 154 (154/284)
• 
  Number Of Bearish Months: 130 (130/284)

Dataset Totals

• 
  Total Number Of Days: 5708
• 
  Total Number Of Weeks: 1230
• 
  Total Number Of Months: 284
• 
  Total Number Of Years: 22

DATASET 1: Weekday High/Low Break Probability

The tables below present the probabilities of EUR/USD exceeding the highest or lowest prices recorded each weekday by the end of the same week, based on that day’s percentage increase or decrease in value. Use these probabilities when optimizing stop-loss and take-profit levels – Ready to learn our actionable strategies and in-depth breakdowns?

DATA KEY: 1st Number (e.g., 203/258) = Number Of Failed High/Low Breaks.
DATA KEY: 2nd Number (e.g., 203/258) = Number Of Weekday Occurrences.

Example: EUR/AUD Bearish Thursday High (384/564)

To verify our probability, divide the number of failed high breaks (384) by the number of bearish Thursday’s (564), then multiply by 100.

Calculation: (384/564) * 100 = 68.09% – MATCH!

Probability Of Price Breaking Bearish Weekday High (Any %)

Analysis reveals the chance of price breaking a weekday high decreases if the day closes bearish by any percentage.

• 
  Monday: 37.33% Probability (193/517)
• 
  Tuesday: 47.39% Probability (245/517)
• 
  Wednesday: 58.79% Probability (301/512)
• 
  Thursday: 74.07% Probability (400/540)
• 
  Friday: 100% Probability (Weekend)

Probability Of Price Breaking Bearish Weekday High (>0.5% Decline)

Analysis reveals the chance of price breaking a weekday high decreases further if the day closes bearish by more than -0.5%.

• 
  Monday: 51.30% Probability (99/193)
• 
  Tuesday: 58.97% Probability (138/234)
• 
  Wednesday: 75.00% Probability (180/240)
• 
  Thursday: 87.15% Probability (217/245)
• 
  Friday: 100% Probability (Weekend)

Probability Of Price Breaking Bearish Weekday High (>0.8% Decline)

Analysis reveals the chance of price breaking a weekday high decreases further if the day closes bearish by more than -0.8%.

• 
  Monday: 50.43% Probability (58/115)
• 
  Tuesday: 62.18% Probability (97/156)
• 
  Wednesday: 82.43% Probability (122/148)
• 
  Thursday: 92.67% Probability (139/150)
• 
  Friday: 100% Probability (Weekend)

Probability Of Price Breaking Bullish Weekday Low (Any % Rise)

Analysis reveals the chance of price breaking a weekday low decreases if the day closes bullish by any percentage.

• 
  Monday: 43.43% Probability (217/624)
• 
  Tuesday: 52.40% Probability (328/626)
• 
  Wednesday: 59.09% Probability (372/630)
• 
  Thursday: 74.83% Probability (449/600)
• 
  Friday: 100% Probability (Weekend)

Probability Of Price Breaking
Bullish Weekday Low (>0.5% Rise)

Analysis reveals the chance of price breaking a weekday low decreases further if the day closes bullish by more than 0.5%.

• 
  Monday: 53.33% Probability (136/255)
• 
  Tuesday: 62.91% Probability (173/275)
• 
  Wednesday: 73.85% Probability (209/283)
• 
  Thursday: 83.83% Probability (223/266)
• 
  Friday: 100% Probability (Weekend)

Probability Of Price Breaking Bullish Weekday Low (>0.8% Rise)

Analysis reveals the chance of price breaking a weekday low decreases further if the day closes bullish by more than 0.8%.

• 
  Monday: 57.24% Probability (83/145)
• 
  Tuesday: 71.25% Probability (114/160)
• 
  Wednesday: 76.25% Probability (122/160)
• 
  Thursday: 86.71% Probability (124/143)
• 
  Friday: 100% Probability (Weekend)

Explore Our Charts & Probability Insights

Check our selection of interactive charts, each revealing unique price dynamics within AUD/JPY. Use our accompanying probability tables to reveal the historical odds of bullish/bearish days following specific chart events.

Combine these insights to pinpoint hidden opportunities, make more informed decisions, and ultimately develop a truly data-driven approach to trading AUD/JPY!

Bullish/Bearish Close Probability

Based on historical data, the table below shows the probability of seeing a bullish day (For %) or bearish day (Against %) following bullish streaks.

DAILY STREAKS CHART: Consecutive Bullish Days Frequency/Length

The “Streaks Chart” visually represents the frequency and duration of consecutive bullish days on AUD/JPY, from 2001 to 2023. Analyze this chart alongside the probability table for information on
market momentum and identify opportunities to fade extended bullish streaks.

Analysis of AUD/JPY reveals a limited capacity for sustained bullish momentum.

Extended streaks beyond four days are infrequent, comprising only 7.03% of all bullish streaks between 2001 and 2023. Single bullish days followed by a bearish day appeared 692 times, representing 48.66% of all observable bullish streak occurrences!

1) If 3+ consecutive bullish days form, there’s a 86.85% chance the next day closes bearish.
2) Fading streaks above 3+ days can provide profitable short-term bear trades.
3) Look for bullish streaks to end (close bearish) around major psychological levels (500, 0000 Prices)
4) Longer bullish streaks hold a higher chance of a bearish close; use this to filter fading opportunities
5) The rarity of longer streaks skews the odds slightly, but they still remain higher than 86.85%.
6) Use streaks to help time when to take profits and anticipate reversals from key POI’s!

Bullish/Bearish Close Probability

Based on historical data, the table below shows the probability of seeing a bearish day (For %) or bullish day (Against %) following bearish streaks.

DAILY STREAKS CHART: Consecutive Bearish Days Frequency/Length

The “Streaks Chart” visually represents the frequency and duration of consecutive bearish days on AUD/JPY, from 2001 to 2023. Analyze this chart alongside the probability table for information
on market momentum and identify opportunities to fade extended bearish streaks.

AUD/JPY struggles to maintain extended bearish runs – a fact our data reinforces.

Our analysis reveals 760 single day streaks, where a bearish day was immediately followed by a bullish reversal. Extended declines are rare, with streaks exceeding four consecutive bearish days accounting for a mere 6.13% of all streak instances – only one 10-day bearish streak appeared in our entire dataset!

1) If 3+ consecutive bearish days form, there’s a 88.31% chance the next day closes bullish.
2) Fading streaks above 3+ days can provide profitable short-term bull trades.
3) Look for bearish streaks to end (close bullish) around major psychological levels (500, 0000 Prices)
4) Longer bearish streaks hold a higher chance of a bullish close; use this to filter fading opportunities
5) The rarity of longer streaks skews the odds slightly, but they remain higher than 88.31%.
6) Use streaks to help time when to take profits and anticipate reversals from key POI’s!

Bullish/Bearish Close Probability

The table below presents the precise probability of seeing a bullish or bearish day after a specific percentage increase (0.0% to 2.0%).

DAILY FREQUENCY CHART: Bullish Percentage Increase Probability

The “Daily Frequency Chart” offers a visual representation of the distribution of percentage increases across bullish trading days on AUD/JPY, from 2001 to 2023. Segmented into 0.2% intervals, the chart allows you to identify the frequency and probability (see table) of specific bullish daily gains.

AUD/JPY shows a 50/50 chance of a reversal or continuation the day following a bullish close between 0.0% and 1.4%.

Days exceeding 1.4% gains are exceptionally rare (only 234 instances in 22 years), challenging the notion large daily increases are commonplace, and hinting at caution when trading after such moves.

Don’t assume significant bullish days guarantee further upside.

Analysis shows a 50/50 chance of reversal or continuation after moves between 0.0% – 1.4%. Days exceeding +2% hold a slightly higher chance (57.66%) of closing bullish the following day, but require further testing and research.

Bullish/Bearish Close Probability

The table below presents the precise probability of seeing a bullish or bearish day after a specific percentage decrease (0.0% to -2.0%).

DAILY FREQUENCY CHART: Bearish Percentage Decrease Probability

The “Daily Frequency Chart” offers a visual representation of the distribution of percentage increases across bearish trading days on AUD/JPY, from 2001 to 2023. Segmented into 0.2% intervals, the chart allows you to identify the frequency and probability (see table) of specific bearish daily gains.

After a bearish close between -0.0% and -1.4%, short-term direction becomes unpredictable, with an almost equal chance of a single candle reversal or continuation the next day.

Daily declines exceeding -1.4% are highly rare (only 288 occurrences), challenging the common assumption large daily moves always lead to sustained price momentum. In fact, days with declines between 1.4% – 1.6% are more likely (69.44%) to be followed by a bearish close the following day.

Don’t assume a significant bearish day automatically translates to continued downside momentum.

Analysis reveals a roughly 50/50 chance of reversal or continuation after moves between -0.0% and -1.4%, with only minor variations in the probabilities.

Bullish/Bearish Close Probability

The table shows the probability of AUD/JPY experiencing a bullish or bearish day following consecutive higher high days.

DAILY STREAKS CHART: Consecutive Higher High Days Frequency

The “Streaks Chart” displays the frequency and duration of seeing consecutive higher high days for AUD/JPY, from 2001 – 2023. Analyzing streaks of lower lows can offer insights into the prevailing market volatility and hint at the potential for a bullish or bearish day following the end of a streak.

Consecutive days with higher highs, regardless of candlestick color, often signal underlying bullish momentum and offer clues into the next day’s price action.

Single-day higher highs are the norm (547 occurrences), reinforcing AUD/JPY’s tendency for choppy price action. However, extended streaks of consecutive higher highs days—whether bullish or bearish—demonstrate the potential for bullish momentum to increase and accumulate, even during down days.

Harness consecutive higher high streaks to strengthen your decisions.

Analyze whether your market opinions align with existing higher high streaks, as these often culminate in a bearish close and can provide data-backed confirmation for any buy trades.

Bullish/Bearish Close Probability

The table shows the probability of AUD/JPY experiencing a bullish or bearish day following consecutive lower low days.

DAILY STREAKS CHART: Consecutive Lower Low Days Frequency

The “Streaks Chart” displays the frequency and duration of seeing consecutive lower low days for AUD/JPY, from 2001 – 2023. Analyzing streaks of lower lows can offer insights into the prevailing market volatility and hint at the potential for a bullish or bearish day following the end of a streak.

Consecutive days of lower daily lows often signal sustained downward momentum and provides clues about the next day’s close.

Single-day lower lows are most common (582 occurrences), reflecting the choppy price action of AUD/JPY. However, extended streaks of consecutive lower lows, regardless of daily trend direction, demonstrate the potential for increasing bearish momentum even during bullish price movements.

Use lower low streaks to enhance your trading decisions. See if your market bias aligns with existing streaks, as these often culminate with a bearish close the next day, offering data-backed confirmation for any sell trades.

FAQ: Your Top Questions Answered!

Find answers to your top questions about our AUD/JPY dataset below. Need more in-depth help about the charts and datasets presented? Contact us directly – we’re always happy to support your trading journey!

What Exactly Does "Occurrences/Events" Mean In Your Data?

“Occurrences” or “Events” simply mean the number of times a specific pattern or event happened in our historical price data.

Examples:

Consecutive Days: If you see “545 occurrences for three consecutive bullish days,” it means we found 545 instances where the price went up for three days in a row, then went down on the fourth day.

Specific Patterns: If a candlestick pattern, like a “pin bar,” has 720 occurrences, it means that pattern showed up 720 times in our data.

Why it Matters:

The more occurrences we see (the larger the sample size), the more reliable the associated probabilities and insights are, as we have more data to base our conclusions on.

How Do I Interpret The Probability Percentages?

The probability percentages tell you how likely a specific outcome is according to how often it happened in the past.

Think of it like flipping a coin:

If Monday holds a 76% probability of closing bullish, that means the market should close bullish roughly 76 times out of every 100 Mondays, based on historical data. Just like a coin has a 50/50 chance of landing heads or tails, these probabilities help you “weigh” the odds for different market scenarios.

A higher percentage means a greater chance of that particular event happening again.

Can I Get This Data For Different Timeframes (1-hour, Daily, Etc.)?

Our current analysis primarily focuses on the daily timeframe, with each data point representing a single trading day. However, we’re continuously expanding our research and are excited to soon offer insights from shorter timeframes, such as 1-hour and 5-minute charts.

Expect even more granular data and potential trading opportunities.

Stay tuned for updates!

How Do You Ensure Your Data Is Accurate And Error-free?

Our foundational data is sourced from Barchart Premium, a recognized industry leader in market information, ensuring the accuracy and reliability of our analysis.

We then apply rigorous internal quality checks to further validate our findings.

You’ll often notice high occurrence counts for high-probability events in our analysis. This is a testament to the extensive amount of price data we process, underscoring the robustness and reliability of our statistical insights.

Rest assured: Our data-driven conclusions are always backed by thorough analysis.

How Frequently Will The Charts & Data Be Updated?

We update our analysis at the beginning of each year to ensure you’re always working with the most relevant market data.

While you might notice frequent updates for high-probability events, adjustments to probabilities require more time. This is because we rely on a substantial sample size to ensure any changes are statistically significant and not just random fluctuations.

Our goal is to provide trustworthy insights that give you a true edge. Sometimes, that means waiting for enough new data to make meaningful updates to those core probabilities.

Can I Use Your Charts And Data In My Own Trading Materials/Blog?

Screenshot and copy/paste functions are disabled to protect our proprietary data and analysis, which are a core part of the value we provide to our members.

Unauthorized sharing of our probability insights undermines the exclusivity of our service.
We take protecting our intellectual property seriously. Attempts to circumvent these restrictions will result in immediate account termination.

We appreciate your cooperation in helping us maintain a fair service for our community.

What Is The Timeline for Adding Additional Charts And Data?

Get ready for a weekly dose of trading insights!

We’re constantly expanding our arsenal of game-changing charts, datasets, and probability figures to enhance your trading. Stay tuned for exciting updates that will revolutionize your analysis and decision-making.

The charts and datasets you see now are just the beginning of what we plan to offer.

Here’s a sneak peek of what’s coming soon:

Scalping & Intraday Strategies:
High-probability setups and market events revealed on the 1-hour and 5-minute charts, allowing you to further capitalize on short-term moves.

Pin Bar Mastery:
Dive into pin bar probabilities, understanding how time of day, wick size, and market conditions impact success rates.

Profit From Extreames:

Strategies tailored around unique events like new 30-day highs/lows, increasing your chances of catching significant moves.

We’re committed to providing the most comprehensive probability-based FX analysis suite.

Stay tuned for updates!