BEARISH DAY ANALYSIS · OPEN–HIGH STATISTICS

AUD/NZD Bearish Momentum
Open–High Range

Comprehensive analysis of how far AUD/NZD trades above the daily open on bearish sessions. Based on 2,644 bearish days spanning 24 years of price history.

Updated 8 Apr 2026 n = 2,644 24yr dataset
Bearish Sample
2,644
Bearish days analysed
Peak Zone
28.37%
100–200 pip range · most common
Avg High Range
234.1
Average open → high pips
High Confidence
73.76%
Highs within 300 pips of open
Raw Data

Open–High Range Distribution

Range (Pips)Days% of TotalDistributionRolling %

Rolling % = cumulative probability of reaching at least that pip bucket on a bearish day.

Probability Curve

Cumulative Distribution

73.8% of bearish days: highs within 300 pips of open
Only 14.3% rally beyond 300 pips — limited retracement risk
Frequency Chart

Range Distribution Histogram

2,644 bearish sessions

100–200 pip range leads at 28.37% — prime zone for bearish continuation entries and stop placement.

Observations

Key Trading Insights

Highest Probability Stop

73.8% within 300 pips

A stop loss beyond 350–400 pips above entry offers high historical security for short trades.

Peak Rally Zone

100–200 pips (28.37%)

Highest density of bearish day highs, ideal for limit orders or partial take-profit.

Deep Rally Rare

14.3% exceed 300 pips

Deep retracements against bearish trend are uncommon; hold with confidence.

Immediate Momentum

6.5% high within 10 pips

Initial strong selling can produce immediate high — ideal for early entries.

Strategy Framework

Trading Stop-Loss Application (Open–High)

On bearish AUD/NZD days, the Open-High range informs optimal stop-loss placement for short entries, accounting for the typical initial retracement.

Stop Placement

350–400 pips above entry

73.76% historical confidence within 300 pips → high security zone.

Confirmation Zone

100–300 pip range

Nearly half of all bearish rallies terminate here — ideal for add-ons.

Breakout Awareness

Initial 10-pip move

6.47% chance high is immediate; use tight entry triggers.

Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Combine with technical/fundamental analysis. AUD/NZD correlation: RBA–RBNZ policy divergence, cross-commodity flows.
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