Consecutive Day Analysis · 1,324 Bearish Data Points

AUD/NZD Consecutive
Bearish Day Statistics

Advanced AUD/NZD bearish consecutive streak study revealing how extended bearish momentum affects continuation probabilities, trend acceleration, and short-term relief rally risk.

Updated Apr 3, 2026 n = 1,324 bearish Daily TF
Sample
1,324
Total bearish data points
Base Rate
48.45%
Single day bearish probability
Reversal Signal
87.60%
Reversal probability after 3 bearish days
Streak Analysis

Consecutive Day Probabilities

Bearish Continuation

Streak Breakdown

1,324 obs.
StreakOccurrencesContinue %Reversal %
1 Day62548.45%51.55%
2 Day33225.74%74.26%
3 Day Signal16012.40%87.60%
4 Day957.36%92.64%
5 Day453.49%96.51%
6 Day171.32%98.68%
7 Day120.93%99.07%
8 Day10.08%99.92%
9 Day10.08%99.92%
10 Day10.08%99.92%
11 Day10.08%99.92%

Maximum observed streak: 11 consecutive bearish days.

Frequency

Bearish Streak Distribution

Occurrences

Frequency of each consecutive bearish day streak length. Most streaks end within 2 days.

Mean-Reversion

Reversal Probability by Streak

Reversal %

Likelihood of trend reversal increases sharply with streak length. After 3 days, odds exceed 87%.

Visual Breakdown

Continuation vs Reversal at Each Streak

Range Behaviour

Volatility Insights: Daily Price Range

Key Metrics

Range Stats

78.4
Avg Daily Range (pips)
Wednesday
Most Volatile Day
98.7
Avg Range After 3-Day Streak

After 3 consecutive bearish days, average daily range expands by +25.9% vs baseline.

Intraday Volatility

Avg Daily Range by Day of Week

Pip Range

Wednesday historically delivers the widest intraday ranges — key for targeting larger directional moves.

Raw Dataset

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Complete dataset · Percentile tables · CSV export
Full dataset — every trading day since 2000
Percentile distribution: 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, 95th, 99th
Volatility regime breakdown (low/med/high volatility periods)
Reversal / pattern analysis by streak length
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Observations

Key Trading Insights

Insight 1

Single Day Downside is Mildly Bearish

After one bearish day, only 48.45% continue — showing no strong momentum. Slight downside bias.

Insight 2

Two-Day Declines Fade Quickly

After 2 bearish days, only 25.74% continue — 74.26% reverse. Downside momentum evaporates fast.

Insight 3 · Key Signal

Three Days = High Reversal Signal

After 3 bearish days, 87.60% reverse. Only 12.40% continue — strong mean-reversion trigger for long entries.

Insight 4

Extended Bearish Streaks Extremely Rare

Only 7.36% of streaks exceed 4 days. Beyond 5 days, reversal odds exceed 96%. Max observed: 11 days.

Potential Trading Application

AUD/NZD struggles to maintain extended bearish runs — a fact our data reinforces. Our analysis reveals 625 single day streaks, where a bearish day was immediately followed by a bullish reversal. Extended declines are rare, with streaks exceeding four consecutive bearish days accounting for 7.36% of all streak instances. Consider:

Scaling into longs after 3+ consecutive red days
Covering shorts and taking profits after 2–3 down days
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Combine with technical/fundamental analysis.
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Data Hub

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The full AUD/NZD dataset library — streaks, ranges, calendars, and key statistics in one place.

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Tip: Layer multiple datasets for edge — e.g., combine Consecutive Higher High Streaks with Bullish Close Probability Calendar. Upgrade to Pro · unlock all datasets →