Open — High Statistics · Bullish Day Analysis

AUD/NZD Bullish
Upside Range

Precision analysis of net bullish movement: how far price closes above the open on up days. Based on 3,032 bullish sessions spanning 24 years.

Updated 17 Apr 2026 n = 3,032 24yr dataset
Sample
3,032
Bullish days analysed
Peak Zone
13.46%
400–500 pip high range · most dense
Avg High Range
690.1
Average open → high pips (bullish)
Cumulative Edge
90.9%
High ≥ 400 pips from open
Raw Data

Open–High Bullish Distribution

Range (Pips)Days% of TotalDistributionRolling %

Rolling % = cumulative probability of reaching at least that high range on a bullish day.

Cumulative Probability

Upside Reach Curve

61.1% of bullish days: high ≥ 600 pips above open
90.9% exceed 400 pips — strong follow-through
Frequency Chart

High Range Distribution Histogram

3,032 bullish sessions

Peak density at 400–500 pips (13.46%) — prime zone for scaling into long positions.

Observations

Key Trading Insights

Peak Zone

13.46% in 400–500 Pips

Most common net bullish daily move. Ideal for first profit target after breakout.

Majority Extend

61.1% > 600 Pips

Over three-fifths of bullish days hit 600+ pips higher — strong momentum persistence.

Large Moves

~6.7% > 1500 Pips

Nearly 1 in 15 bullish days sees extreme upside, let runners breathe beyond 1000 pips.

Shallow High Rare

Only 0.59% < 100 Pips

Bullish days almost always follow through — avoid fading early strength.

Strategy Framework

Trading Profit Target Application

Open–High range defines net daily movement. Use these probabilities to set high-conviction take-profit levels for long setups.

Profit Target 1

400–600 pips

33% probability → scale partial long position.

Trail & Hold

Beyond 1000 pips

~20% chance to exceed 1000 pips → tighten trailing stops.

Scaling Strategy

Take profit at 400, 700, 1100 pips

Align with high-density clusters.

Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Combine with technical/fundamental analysis. AUD/NZD correlation: commodity prices, RBNZ–RBA divergence, dairy/agriculture.
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Complete dataset · Percentile tables · CSV export
Full dataset — every trading day since 2000
Percentile distribution: 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, 95th, 99th
Volatility regime breakdown (low/med/high volatility periods)
Reversal / pattern analysis by streak length
One-click CSV export for backtesting and statistical modeling
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