Open — Low Statistics · Bullish Day Analysis

AUD/NZD Bullish
Downside Range

Precision analysis of bullish day pullbacks: how far price dips below the open on up days. Based on 3,032 bullish sessions spanning 24 years.

Updated 17 Apr 2026 n = 3,032 24yr dataset
Sample
3,032
Bullish days analysed
Peak Zone
24.08%
100–200 pip pullback · most frequent
Avg Low Range
262.9
Average open → low pips (bullish)
Shallow Pullback Edge
87.5%
Low forms within 500 pips from open
Raw Data

Open–Low Bullish Distribution

Range (Pips)Days% of TotalDistributionRolling %

Rolling % = cumulative probability of low being at least that range below open on a bullish day.

Cumulative Probability

Pullback Depth Curve

70.1% of bullish days: low within 300 pips of open
87.5% shallow retrace — tight stop placement zone
Frequency Chart

Low Range Distribution Histogram

3,032 bullish sessions

Peak density at 100–200 pips (24.08%) — optimal zone for limit entries on pullbacks.

Observations

Key Trading Insights

Most Common

24.08% in 100–200 Pips

Most frequent pullback depth — ideal for placing buy limits after a strong open.

70% Within 300 Pips

Shallow Retrace Dominance

Price rarely drops deeper than 300 pips on bullish days — strong buying pressure.

Tight Risk Control

87.5% < 500 Pips

Ideal for stop placement: most lows form within 500 pips from open.

Rare Deep Pullbacks

Only 0.73% >1500 Pips

Extreme dips are uncommon; avoid chasing deep retracements.

Strategy Framework

Trading Profit Target & Stop Application

Open–Low range defines typical pullback depth on bullish days. Use these probabilities to set high-conviction buy limits and stops.

Stop Placement

200–300 pips below open

Covers 70% of bullish pullbacks → high probability stop buffer.

Trail Stops

Below 400 pips after strong move

Only 12% dip beyond 400 pips → trailing below 400 protects profit.

Limit Entry Zones

Buy on dip: 100–200 pips range

Highest density zone → align entries with cluster probability.

Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Combine with technical/fundamental analysis. AUD/NZD correlation: Commodity prices, RBNZ–RBA policy divergence, dairy/iron ore.
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Complete dataset · Percentile tables · CSV export
Full dataset — every trading day since 2000
Percentile distribution: 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, 95th, 99th
Volatility regime breakdown (low/med/high volatility periods)
Reversal / pattern analysis by streak length
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