Aud/Usd Daily Close Probability (All Days)

Uncategorized
February 29, 2024

AUD/USD: Daily Close Probability (%)

The table below provides a detailed breakdown of the historical closing probability for all trading days on AUD/USD, organized by month and day. The data also includes the number of times each day closed bullish or bearish, validating our analysis and probability figures.

Use these insights to help you time your trades, align your lower timeframe strategies with each days closing odds, and boost your overall success trading AUD/USD.

Dataset Overview

Average Trading Volume: 79753
Start Of Data Range: 09 June 1993
End Of Data Range: 01 January, 2023
Highest Closing Price: 18 August 2011 (1.1018)
Lowest Closing Price: 18 May 2001 (0.4793)
Day With Largest Gain: 13 November 2008 (7.86%)
Day With Largest Loss: 26 November 2008 (-7.59%)
Day With Highest Volume: 24 October 2012 (1153132)
Day With Lowest Volume: 09 January 2018 (4276)

Average Trading Volume: 79753
Start Of Data Range: 09 June 1993
End Of Data Range: 01 January, 2023
Highest Closing Price: 18 August 2011 (1.1018)
Lowest Closing Price: 18 May 2001 (0.4793)
Day With Largest Gain: 13 November 2008 (7.86%)
Day With Largest Loss: 26 November 2008 (-7.59%)
Day With Highest Volume: 24 October 2012 (1153132)
Day With Lowest Volume: 09 January 2018 (4276)

Key Links/Files

0
DON’T FORGET: For a comprehensive understanding of the figures behind our high-probability days, explore our “Occurrences” datasets. We’ve compiled the dates and price information (Open, High, Low, Close) for every bullish and bearish occurrence contributing to a high-probability day, ensuring complete transparency in our analysis and probabilities.

Month	Day	Closed Bullish	Closed Bearish	Total	Bullish Day Probability	Bearish Day Probability
January	1	12	9	21	57.14%	42.86%
January	2	13	8	21	61.90%	38.10%
January	3	11	11	22	50.00%	50.00%
January	4	9	12	21	42.86%	57.14%
January	5	15	7	22	68.18%	31.82%
January	6	14	9	23	60.87%	39.13%
January	7	8	14	22	36.36%	63.64%
January	8	13	8	21	61.90%	38.10%
January	9	11	9	20	55.00%	45.00%
January	10	11	11	22	50.00%	50.00%
January	11	10	13	23	43.48%	56.52%
January	12	17	6	23	73.91%	26.09%
January	13	14	9	23	60.87%	39.13%
January	14	11	11	22	50.00%	50.00%
January	15	8	13	21	38.10%	61.90%
January	16	11	10	21	52.38%	47.62%
January	17	13	9	22	59.09%	40.91%
January	18	11	12	23	47.83%	52.17%
January	19	13	10	23	56.52%	43.48%
January	20	16	7	23	69.57%	30.43%
January	21	12	9	21	57.14%	42.86%
January	22	11	10	21	52.38%	47.62%
January	23	8	12	20	40.00%	60.00%
January	24	10	12	22	45.45%	54.55%
January	25	13	10	23	56.52%	43.48%
January	26	14	8	22	63.64%	36.36%
January	27	6	17	23	26.09%	73.91%
January	28	11	10	21	52.38%	47.62%
January	29	15	5	20	75.00%	25.00%
January	30	10	11	21	47.62%	52.38%
January	31	10	12	22	45.45%	54.55%
Febuary	1	11	12	23	47.83%	52.17%
Febuary	2	15	8	23	65.22%	34.78%
Febuary	3	11	12	23	47.83%	52.17%
Febuary	4	10	12	22	45.45%	54.55%
Febuary	5	9	9	18	50.00%	50.00%
Febuary	6	9	12	21	42.86%	57.14%
Febuary	7	11	10	21	52.38%	47.62%
Febuary	8	12	11	23	52.17%	47.83%
Febuary	9	16	7	23	69.57%	30.43%
Febuary	10	11	11	22	50.00%	50.00%
Febuary	11	10	12	22	45.45%	54.55%
Febuary	12	11	10	21	52.38%	47.62%
Febuary	13	14	7	21	66.67%	33.33%
Febuary	14	10	12	22	45.45%	54.55%
Febuary	15	10	13	23	73.68%	26.32%
Febuary	16	14	9	23	60.87%	39.13%
Febuary	17	7	15	22	31.82%	68.18%
Febuary	18	12	9	21	57.14%	42.86%
Febuary	19	10	11	21	47.62%	52.38%
Febuary	20	12	9	21	57.14%	42.86%
Febuary	21	9	13	22	40.91%	59.09%
Febuary	22	11	12	23	47.83%	52.17%
Febuary	23	13	10	23	56.52%	43.48%
Febuary	24	13	10	23	56.52%	43.48%
Febuary	25	14	8	22	63.64%	36.36%
Febuary	26	4	17	21	19.05%	80.95%
Febuary	27	9	12	21	42.86%	57.14%
Febuary	28	15	7	22	68.18%	31.82%
Febuary	29	3	2	5	60.00%	40.00%
March	1	10	13	23	43.48%	56.52%
March	2	12	10	22	54.55%	45.45%
March	3	13	10	23	56.52%	43.48%
March	4	15	7	22	68.18%	31.82%
March	5	8	12	20	40.00%	60.00%
March	6	9	12	21	42.86%	57.14%
March	7	5	16	21	23.81%	76.19%
March	8	11	12	23	47.83%	52.17%
March	9	13	10	23	56.52%	43.48%
March	10	14	9	23	60.87%	39.13%
March	11	9	13	22	40.91%	59.09%
March	12	7	14	21	33.33%	66.67%
March	13	12	9	21	57.14%	42.86%
March	14	11	11	22	50.00%	50.00%
March	15	17	6	23	73.91%	26.09%
March	16	8	15	23	34.78%	65.22%
March	17	13	10	23	56.52%	43.48%
March	18	11	11	22	50.00%	50.00%
March	19	11	10	21	52.38%	47.62%
March	20	13	7	20	65.00%	35.00%
March	21	14	8	22	63.64%	36.36%
March	22	17	6	23	73.91%	26.09%
March	23	10	12	22	45.45%	54.55%
March	24	10	13	23	43.48%	56.52%
March	25	12	10	22	54.55%	45.45%
March	26	12	9	21	57.14%	42.86%
March	27	11	10	21	52.38%	47.62%
March	28	13	8	21	61.90%	38.10%
March	29	11	12	23	47.83%	52.17%
March	30	9	14	23	39.13%	60.87%
March	31	13	9	22	59.09%	40.91%
April	1	15	6	21	71.43%	28.57%
April	2	8	13	21	38.10%	61.90%
April	3	12	9	21	57.14%	42.86%
April	4	11	11	22	50.00%	50.00%
April	5	16	7	23	69.57%	30.43%
April	6	8	14	22	36.36%	63.64%
April	7	8	15	23	34.78%	65.22%
April	8	10	12	22	45.45%	54.55%
April	9	14	7	21	66.67%	33.33%
April	10	8	13	21	38.10%	61.90%
April	11	12	10	22	54.55%	45.45%
April	12	15	8	23	65.22%	34.78%
April	13	11	11	22	50.00%	50.00%
April	14	10	13	23	43.48%	56.52%
April	15	12	10	22	54.55%	45.45%
April	16	12	9	21	57.14%	42.86%
April	17	4	17	21	19.05%	80.95%
April	18	16	6	22	72.73%	27.27%
April	19	11	11	22	50.00%	50.00%
April	20	13	10	23	56.52%	43.48%
April	21	12	11	23	52.17%	47.83%
April	22	12	10	22	54.55%	45.45%
April	23	11	10	21	52.38%	47.62%
April	24	13	8	21	61.90%	38.10%
April	25	11	11	22	50.00%	50.00%
April	26	8	15	23	34.78%	65.22%
April	27	12	11	23	52.17%	47.83%
April	28	13	10	23	56.52%	43.48%
April	29	9	13	22	40.91%	59.09%
April	30	12	9	21	57.14%	42.86%
May	1	11	9	20	55.00%	45.00%
May	2	9	13	22	40.91%	59.09%
May	3	10	13	23	43.48%	56.52%
May	4	13	10	23	56.52%	43.48%
May	5	10	13	23	43.48%	56.52%
May	6	13	9	22	59.09%	40.91%
May	7	15	5	20	75.00%	25.00%
May	8	10	11	21	47.62%	52.38%
May	9	9	13	22	40.91%	59.09%
May	10	13	9	22	59.09%	40.91%
May	11	8	13	21	38.10%	61.90%
May	12	8	15	23	34.78%	65.22%
May	13	13	9	22	59.09%	40.91%
May	14	12	9	21	57.14%	42.86%
May	15	13	7	20	65.00%	35.00%
May	16	11	10	21	52.38%	47.62%
May	17	14	9	23	60.87%	39.13%
May	18	14	9	23	60.87%	39.13%
May	19	15	8	23	65.22%	34.78%
May	20	11	11	22	50.00%	50.00%
May	21	13	8	21	61.90%	38.10%
May	22	13	7	20	65.00%	35.00%
May	23	13	9	22	59.09%	40.91%
May	24	13	10	23	56.52%	43.48%
May	25	12	11	23	52.17%	47.83%
May	26	9	14	23	39.13%	60.87%
May	27	13	9	22	59.09%	40.91%
May	28	6	15	21	28.57%	71.43%
May	29	15	6	21	71.43%	28.57%
May	30	11	10	21	52.38%	47.62%
May	31	11	12	23	47.83%	52.17%
June	1	14	9	23	60.87%	39.13%
June	2	15	8	23	65.22%	34.78%
June	3	6	15	21	28.57%	71.43%
June	4	14	7	21	66.67%	33.33%
June	5	9	11	20	45.00%	55.00%
June	6	11	11	22	50.00%	50.00%
June	7	14	9	23	60.87%	39.13%
June	8	10	13	23	43.48%	56.52%
June	9	14	10	24	58.33%	41.67%
June	10	11	12	23	47.83%	52.17%
June	11	7	15	22	31.82%	68.18%
June	12	15	7	22	68.18%	31.82%
June	13	10	12	22	45.45%	54.55%
June	14	10	13	23	43.48%	56.52%
June	15	15	9	24	62.50%	37.50%
June	16	10	13	23	43.48%	56.52%
June	17	11	12	23	47.83%	52.17%
June	18	13	9	22	59.09%	40.91%
June	19	11	11	22	50.00%	50.00%
June	20	9	13	22	40.91%	59.09%
June	21	12	11	23	52.17%	47.83%
June	22	10	14	24	41.67%	58.33%
June	23	10	14	24	41.67%	58.33%
June	24	15	8	23	65.22%	34.78%
June	25	15	6	21	71.43%	28.57%
June	26	11	11	22	50.00%	50.00%
June	27	8	13	21	38.10%	61.90%
June	28	14	9	23	60.87%	39.13%
June	29	11	12	23	47.83%	52.17%
June	30	12	12	24	50.00%	50.00%
July	1	14	9	23	60.87%	39.13%
July	2	17	5	22	77.27%	22.73%
July	3	11	10	21	52.38%	47.62%
July	4	12	9	21	57.14%	42.86%
July	5	8	15	23	34.78%	65.22%
July	6	17	7	24	70.83%	29.17%
July	7	16	7	23	69.57%	30.43%
July	8	14	8	22	63.64%	36.36%
July	9	14	8	22	63.64%	36.36%
July	10	12	9	21	57.14%	42.86%
July	11	14	8	22	63.64%	36.36%
July	12	18	5	23	78.26%	21.74%
July	13	16	8	24	66.67%	33.33%
July	14	14	10	24	58.33%	41.67%
July	15	8	15	23	34.78%	65.22%
July	16	15	7	22	68.18%	31.82%
July	17	15	7	22	68.18%	31.82%
July	18	9	12	21	42.86%	57.14%
July	19	9	14	23	39.13%	60.87%
July	20	13	11	24	54.17%	45.83%
July	21	20	4	24	83.33%	16.67%
July	22	13	9	22	59.09%	40.91%
July	23	14	7	21	66.67%	33.33%
July	24	13	9	22	59.09%	40.91%
July	25	12	10	22	54.55%	45.45%
July	26	11	11	22	50.00%	50.00%
July	27	11	12	23	47.83%	52.17%
July	28	11	13	24	45.83%	54.17%
July	29	10	13	23	43.48%	56.52%
July	30	9	13	22	40.91%	59.09%
July	31	8	14	22	36.36%	63.64%
August	1	11	11	22	50.00%	50.00%
August	2	14	9	23	60.87%	39.13%
August	3	14	10	24	58.33%	41.67%
August	4	8	14	22	36.36%	63.64%
August	5	9	14	23	39.13%	60.87%
August	6	14	8	22	63.64%	36.36%
August	7	16	6	22	72.73%	27.27%
August	8	9	12	21	42.86%	57.14%
August	9	8	15	23	34.78%	65.22%
August	10	9	15	24	37.50%	62.50%
August	11	12	12	24	50.00%	50.00%
August	12	15	8	23	65.22%	34.78%
August	13	7	15	22	31.82%	68.18%
August	14	10	11	21	47.62%	52.38%
August	15	12	9	21	57.14%	42.86%
August	16	13	9	22	59.09%	40.91%
August	17	12	11	23	52.17%	47.83%
August	18	10	12	22	45.45%	54.55%
August	19	13	10	23	56.52%	43.48%
August	20	7	15	22	31.82%	68.18%
August	21	10	11	21	47.62%	52.38%
August	22	9	12	21	42.86%	57.14%
August	23	13	8	21	61.90%	38.10%
August	24	15	8	23	65.22%	34.78%
August	25	9	14	23	39.13%	60.87%
August	26	10	13	23	43.48%	56.52%
August	27	16	6	22	72.73%	27.27%
August	28	12	9	21	57.14%	42.86%
August	29	14	7	21	66.67%	33.33%
August	30	5	17	22	22.73%	77.27%
August	31	12	10	22	54.55%	45.45%
September	1	8	14	22	36.36%	63.64%
September	2	13	10	23	56.52%	43.48%
September	3	7	14	21	33.33%	66.67%
September	4	11	10	21	52.38%	47.62%
September	5	9	12	21	42.86%	57.14%
September	6	10	12	22	45.45%	54.55%
September	7	6	17	23	26.09%	73.91%
September	8	13	10	23	56.52%	43.48%
September	9	12	11	23	52.17%	47.83%
September	10	9	13	22	40.91%	59.09%
September	11	13	8	21	61.90%	38.10%
September	12	12	9	21	57.14%	42.86%
September	13	9	12	21	42.86%	57.14%
September	14	14	9	23	60.87%	39.13%
September	15	12	11	23	52.17%	47.83%
September	16	13	10	23	56.52%	43.48%
September	17	12	10	22	54.55%	45.45%
September	18	11	9	20	55.00%	45.00%
September	19	11	10	21	52.38%	47.62%
September	20	12	10	22	54.55%	45.45%
September	21	12	11	23	52.17%	47.83%
September	22	9	14	23	39.13%	60.87%
September	23	12	9	21	57.14%	42.86%
September	24	9	13	22	40.91%	59.09%
September	25	6	15	21	28.57%	71.43%
September	26	11	10	21	52.38%	47.62%
September	27	15	7	22	68.18%	31.82%
September	28	12	11	23	52.17%	47.83%
September	29	10	13	23	43.48%	56.52%
September	30	18	5	23	78.26%	21.74%
October	1	14	8	22	63.64%	36.36%
October	2	7	14	21	33.33%	66.67%
October	3	10	11	21	47.62%	52.38%
October	4	11	11	22	50.00%	50.00%
October	5	11	12	23	47.83%	52.17%
October	6	14	9	23	60.87%	39.13%
October	7	13	10	23	56.52%	43.48%
October	8	7	15	22	31.82%	68.18%
October	9	14	7	21	66.67%	33.33%
October	10	9	12	21	42.86%	57.14%
October	11	13	9	22	59.09%	40.91%
October	12	14	9	23	60.87%	39.13%
October	13	14	9	23	60.87%	39.13%
October	14	11	12	23	47.83%	52.17%
October	15	7	14	21	33.33%	66.67%
October	16	10	11	21	47.62%	52.38%
October	17	9	12	21	42.86%	57.14%
October	18	11	11	22	50.00%	50.00%
October	19	15	8	23	65.22%	34.78%
October	20	13	9	22	59.09%	40.91%
October	21	13	10	23	56.52%	43.48%
October	22	14	8	22	63.64%	36.36%
October	23	12	8	20	60.00%	40.00%
October	24	11	10	21	52.38%	47.62%
October	25	9	12	21	42.86%	57.14%
October	26	14	5	19	73.68%	26.32%
October	27	17	6	23	73.91%	26.09%
October	28	11	10	21	52.38%	47.62%
October	29	10	12	22	45.45%	54.55%
October	30	9	12	21	42.86%	57.14%
October	31	11	10	21	52.38%	47.62%
November	1	10	12	22	45.45%	54.55%
November	2	7	16	23	30.43%	69.57%
November	3	13	10	23	56.52%	43.48%
November	4	12	10	22	54.55%	45.45%
November	5	14	8	22	63.64%	36.36%
November	6	12	8	20	60.00%	40.00%
November	7	12	9	21	57.14%	42.86%
November	8	10	11	21	47.62%	52.38%
November	9	12	11	23	52.17%	47.83%
November	10	11	12	23	47.83%	52.17%
November	11	14	9	23	60.87%	39.13%
November	12	9	13	22	40.91%	59.09%
November	13	12	9	21	57.14%	42.86%
November	14	10	11	21	47.62%	52.38%
November	15	14	8	22	63.64%	36.36%
November	16	10	13	23	43.48%	56.52%
November	17	9	12	21	42.86%	57.14%
November	18	8	15	23	34.78%	65.22%
November	19	9	13	22	40.91%	59.09%
November	20	9	10	19	47.37%	52.63%
November	21	13	8	21	61.90%	38.10%
November	22	15	7	22	68.18%	31.82%
November	23	12	11	23	52.17%	47.83%
November	24	16	6	22	72.73%	27.27%
November	25	13	10	23	56.52%	43.48%
November	26	11	10	21	52.38%	47.62%
November	27	12	8	20	60.00%	40.00%
November	28	7	13	20	35.00%	65.00%
November	29	13	9	22	59.09%	40.91%
November	30	15	8	23	65.22%	34.78%
December	1	11	10	21	52.38%	47.62%
December	2	12	10	22	54.55%	45.45%
December	3	14	8	22	63.64%	36.36%
December	4	9	11	20	45.00%	55.00%
December	5	11	10	21	52.38%	47.62%
December	6	12	10	22	54.55%	45.45%
December	7	11	10	21	52.38%	47.62%
December	8	6	17	23	26.09%	73.91%
December	9	10	13	23	43.48%	56.52%
December	10	12	10	22	54.55%	45.45%
December	11	13	8	21	61.90%	38.10%
December	12	10	11	21	47.62%	52.38%
December	13	14	8	22	63.64%	36.36%
December	14	7	16	23	30.43%	69.57%
December	15	8	15	23	34.78%	65.22%
December	16	10	12	22	45.45%	54.55%
December	17	8	14	22	36.36%	63.64%
December	18	14	7	21	66.67%	33.33%
December	19	12	9	21	57.14%	42.86%
December	20	11	11	22	50.00%	50.00%
December	21	15	8	23	65.22%	34.78%
December	22	10	13	23	43.48%	56.52%
December	23	8	15	23	34.78%	65.22%
December	24	10	12	22	45.45%	54.55%
December	25	16	5	21	76.19%	23.81%
December	26	9	12	21	42.86%	57.14%
December	27	14	8	22	63.64%	36.36%
December	28	11	12	23	47.83%	52.17%
December	29	10	13	23	43.48%	56.52%
December	30	11	12	23	47.83%	52.17%
December	31	12	10	22	54.55%	45.45%
Month	Day	Closed Bullish	Closed Bearish	Total	Bullish Day Probability	Bearish Day Probability

0
QUICK TIP: Use the filters above or the search bar at the top to quickly locate and sort the probabilities associated with specific months and days. This allows you to easily find the data you need for making informed decisions.

FAQ: Your Top Questions Answered!

Find answers to your top questions about our AUD/USD dataset below. Need more in-depth help about the charts and datasets presented? Contact us directly – we’re always happy to support your trading journey!

“Occurrences” or “Events” simply mean the number of times a specific pattern or event happened in our historical price data.

Examples:

Consecutive Days: If you see “545 occurrences for three consecutive bullish days,” it means we found 545 instances where the price went up for three days in a row, then went down on the fourth day.

Specific Patterns: If a candlestick pattern, like a “pin bar,” has 720 occurrences, it means that pattern showed up 720 times in our data.

Why it Matters:

The more occurrences we see (the larger the sample size), the more reliable the associated probabilities and insights are, as we have more data to base our conclusions on.

The probability percentages tell you how likely a specific outcome is according to how often it happened in the past.

Think of it like flipping a coin:

If Monday holds a 76% probability of closing bullish, that means the market should close bullish roughly 76 times out of every 100 Mondays, based on historical data. Just like a coin has a 50/50 chance of landing heads or tails, these probabilities help you “weigh” the odds for different market scenarios.

A higher percentage means a greater chance of that particular event happening again.

Our current analysis primarily focuses on the daily timeframe, with each data point representing a single trading day. However, we’re continuously expanding our research and are excited to soon offer insights from shorter timeframes, such as 1-hour and 5-minute charts.

Expect even more granular data and potential trading opportunities.

Stay tuned for updates!

Our foundational data is sourced from Barchart Premium, a recognized industry leader in market information, ensuring the accuracy and reliability of our analysis.

We then apply rigorous internal quality checks to further validate our findings.

You’ll often notice high occurrence counts for high-probability events in our analysis. This is a testament to the extensive amount of price data we process, underscoring the robustness and reliability of our statistical insights.

Rest assured: Our data-driven conclusions are always backed by thorough analysis.

We update our analysis at the beginning of each year to ensure you’re always working with the most relevant market data.

While you might notice frequent updates for high-probability events, adjustments to probabilities require more time. This is because we rely on a substantial sample size to ensure any changes are statistically significant and not just random fluctuations.

Our goal is to provide trustworthy insights that give you a true edge. Sometimes, that means waiting for enough new data to make meaningful updates to those core probabilities.

Screenshot and copy/paste functions are disabled to protect our proprietary data and analysis, which are a core part of the value we provide to our members.

Unauthorized sharing of our probability insights undermines the exclusivity of our service.
We take protecting our intellectual property seriously. Attempts to circumvent these restrictions will result in immediate account termination.

We appreciate your cooperation in helping us maintain a fair service for our community.

Get ready for a weekly dose of trading insights!

We’re constantly expanding our arsenal of game-changing charts, datasets, and probability figures to enhance your trading. Stay tuned for exciting updates that will revolutionize your analysis and decision-making.

The charts and datasets you see now are just the beginning of what we plan to offer.

Here’s a sneak peek of what’s coming soon:

Scalping & Intraday Strategies:
High-probability setups and market events revealed on the 1-hour and 5-minute charts, allowing you to further capitalize on short-term moves.

Pin Bar Mastery:
Dive into pin bar probabilities, understanding how time of day, wick size, and market conditions impact success rates.

Profit From Extreames:

Strategies tailored around unique events like new 30-day highs/lows, increasing your chances of catching significant moves.

We’re committed to providing the most comprehensive probability-based FX analysis suite.

Stay tuned for updates!