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Back To AUD/USD Datasets
Bullish Day Open → Close Statistics

AUD/USD Range
Close Distribution

Comprehensive analysis of how far AUD/USD moves from the daily open on bullish sessions. Based on 4,204 bullish days spanning 24 years of price history.

Updated 31 Mar 2026 · 18:49 UTC n = 4,204 24yr dataset
View Range Probabilities Explore Trading Insights Open Source Data
Sample
4,204
Total bullish days analysed
Peak Zone
21.31%
10–100 pip range · most common
Avg Range
344.0
Average open → close pips
Cumulative
58.0%
Closes above 200 pips
Raw Data

Open–Close Range Distribution

Range (Pips)Days% of TotalDistributionRolling %

Rolling % = cumulative probability of closing at least that far above open on bullish days.

Probability Curve

Cumulative Distribution

77.8% of bullish days: close within 500 pips
58% close above 200 pips — strong follow-through
Frequency Chart

Range Distribution Histogram

4,204 bullish sessions

10–100 pip range dominates at 21.31% — tight bullish closes, while 1.45% exceed 1500 pips (explosive outliers).

Observations

Key Trading Insights

Strong Closes

58% above 200 pips

More than half of bullish days close at least 200 pips higher — consistent bullish conviction.

Follow-through

78% above 400 pips

Excellent follow-through: nearly 8 out of 10 bullish sessions close beyond 400 pips, offering strong trend continuation.

Peak Density

21.3% in 10-100 pips

Most common close range, ideal for scaled entries and initial profit targets on intraday bullish momentum.

Explosive Days

1.45% >1500 pips

Rare monster sessions: hold partial positions for macro spikes (RBA, US NFP, commodity surges).

Strategy Framework

Trading Application

Secure profits progressively — follow-through is reliable. Use range distribution to structure exits.

Take profits every 200 pips

Scale out at 200, 400, 600 pips — aligns with distribution clusters (58% >200, 77% >400).

Trail final position above 600

83% of days close under 600 pips; trail stop beyond that to let runners ride outliers.

Hold for 1000+ on news days

On high-impact events (RBA, US CPI), retain a runner — 1.45% of sessions exceed 1500 pips.

Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use with confluence. Iron ore correlation: +0.72 | RBA sensitivity
Raw Dataset

Explore the Underlying Data

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Workbook Sheets

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Schema · Dashboard Sheet

Column Reference

— columns
Pro Access

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Complete dataset · Percentile tables · CSV export
Full dataset — every trading day since 2000
Percentile distribution: 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, 95th, 99th
Volatility regime breakdown (low/med/high volatility periods)
Reversal / pattern analysis by streak length
One-click CSV export for backtesting and statistical modeling
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Percentile tables✗✓
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Data Library

Explore Our AUD/USD Datasets

Dive deeper into specific aspects of AUD/USD price action.

Free

Bullish Day Open – Low Range Frequency

How far price dips below the daily open before recovering on bullish days — drawdown percentile distributions.

All bullish daily closes View →
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Bullish Day Open – High Range Frequency

Distribution of how far price travels from the daily open to the session high on bullish days.

Daily candles analysed View →
Free

Consecutive Higher High Streaks

Frequency and success rate of consecutive daily higher highs forming across tracked history.

6,420 days tracked View →
Related Pair

AUD/JPY Bullish Open – Low Range

Compare bullish open-low drawdown distributions on AUD/JPY — a highly correlated USD pair.

Daily candles analysed View →
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AUD/CAD Bullish Open – Low Range

Compare bullish open-low drawdown distributions on AUD/CAD — the direct EUR strength cross.

Daily candles analysed View →
Data Hub

AUD/USD Data Hub

The full AUD/USD dataset library — streaks, ranges, calendars, and key statistics in one place.

All AUD/USD datasets View All →
Tip: Layer multiple datasets for edge — e.g., combine Consecutive Higher High Streaks with Bullish Close Probability Calendar. Upgrade to Pro · unlock all datasets →
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© 2026 SmartFinanceData. All data is historical and does not guarantee future performance.