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Back To AUD/USD Datasets
Open — Low Statistics · Bullish Day Analysis

AUD/USD Range
Shallow Pullback Profile

Comprehensive analysis of how far AUD/USD trades below the daily open on bullish sessions. Based on 4,204 bullish days spanning 24 years of price history.

Updated 30 Mar 2026 n = 4,204 24yr dataset
View Range Probabilities Explore Trading Insights Open Source Data
Sample
4,204
Bullish days analysed
Peak Zone
31.33%
10–100 pip range · most common
Avg Range
176.0
Average open → low pips
Cumulative
89.6%
Lows within 400 pips of open
Raw Data

Open–Low Range Distribution

Range (Pips)Days% of TotalDistributionRolling %

Rolling % = cumulative probability of reaching that pip depth on a bullish day.

Probability Curve

Cumulative Distribution

82.2% of bullish days: low within 300 pips
96.0% of bullish days: low within 600 pips
Frequency Chart

Range Distribution Histogram

4,204 bullish sessions

10–100 pip range dominates at 31.33% — ultra-shallow dips, ideal for precise stop placement.

Observations

Key Trading Insights

Shallow Pullbacks

47% within 100 pips

Strong bullish bias: nearly half of all bullish days see lows within 100 pips of open — ideal for tight entries.

Peak: 10–100 Pips

31.33% density

Highest concentration zone — the most common dip zone. Stop placement just below this offers high probability.

90% Within 400 Pips

Tight risk management

Only 10% exceed 400 pips. Perfect for scaling positions with disciplined trailing stops.

Rare Deep Drops

0.14% over 1500 pips

Extreme tail events are virtually non-existent. The Aussie's commodity-driven behavior keeps dips contained.

Strategy Framework

Trading Application

Minimize risk with tight stops. Pullbacks are shallow — structure stops accordingly.

Stop Placement

100–150 pips below open

Aligns with 10–100 & 100–200 peak zones. Captures 53%+ of natural retracements.

Trail Stops

Trail below 300 pips on momentum

82% of days stay under 300 pips; tighten trailing stops to lock gains before rare extensions.

Avoid Wide Stops

82% recover fast

Majority of dips reverse quickly. Wide stops add unnecessary risk without statistical edge.

Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use with confluence — watch iron ore & RBA. Commodity correlation: +0.71 (iron ore)
Raw Dataset

Explore the Underlying Data

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Total rows in file
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Sheets in workbook
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Workbook Sheets

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Schema · Dashboard Sheet

Column Reference

— columns
Pro Access

Unlock the Full Dataset

SFD Pro Dataset Access
Complete dataset · Percentile tables · CSV export
Full dataset — every trading day since 2000
Percentile distribution: 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, 95th, 99th
Volatility regime breakdown (low/med/high volatility periods)
Reversal / pattern analysis by streak length
One-click CSV export for backtesting and statistical modeling
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Feature Free Pro
Row limit100All rows
Percentile tables✗✓
Volatility breakdown✗✓
Pattern analysis✗✓
CSV export✗✓
Data Library

Explore Our AUD/USD Datasets

Dive deeper into specific aspects of AUD/USD price action.

Free

Bullish Day Open – Close Range Frequency

How far from the daily open price closes on bullish days — range percentile distributions.

All bullish daily closes View →
Free

Bullish Day Open – High Range Frequency

Distribution of how far price travels from the daily open to the session high on bullish days.

Daily candles analysed View →
Free

Consecutive Higher High Streaks

Frequency and success rate of consecutive daily higher highs forming across tracked history.

6,420 days tracked View →
Related Pair

AUD/JPY Bullish Open – Low Range

Compare bullish open-low drawdown distributions on AUD/JPY — a highly correlated USD pair.

Daily candles analysed View →
Related Pair

AUD/CAD Bullish Open – Low Range

Compare bullish open-low drawdown distributions on AUD/CAD — the direct EUR strength cross.

Daily candles analysed View →
Data Hub

AUD/USD Data Hub

The full AUD/USD dataset library — streaks, ranges, calendars, and key statistics in one place.

All AUD/USD datasets View All →
Tip: Layer multiple datasets for edge — e.g., combine Consecutive Higher High Streaks with Bullish Close Probability Calendar. Upgrade to Pro · unlock all datasets →
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© 2026 SmartFinanceData. All data is historical and does not guarantee future performance.