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Back To AUD/USD Datasets
Complete Analysis · 32 Years of Market History

AUD/USD Complete
Statistics & Probabilities

Comprehensive data insights from 8,049 trading days spanning 32 years of market history. Dataset covers 1993–2023 across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes.

Updated 01 Apr 2026 n = 8,049 days 1993–2023
Sample
8,049
Total trading days
Weekly
1,231
Total weeks analysed
Monthly
283
Total months in dataset
Coverage
32
Years of price history
Market Direction

Daily Close Bias

52.2% Bullish
47.8% Bearish
4,204 days 3,845 days
🟢 Bullish Day Structure 4,204 days
Higher High 65.15% 2,739 days
Higher Low 67.25% 2,827 days
Lower High 34.16% 1,436 days
Lower Low 31.68% 1,332 days
🔴 Bearish Day Structure 3,845 days
Lower High 66.87% 2,571 days
Lower Low 64.34% 2,474 days
Higher Low 34.98% 1,345 days
Higher High 31.78% 1,222 days
32-Year Distribution

Bull vs Bear Day Split

Bullish Edge · 8,049 days
🟢 Bullish closes 52.2%
4,204
days out of 8,049
🔴 Bearish closes 47.8%
3,845
days out of 8,049
📅 Monthly bias 51.4% bullish
144 of 283 months closed green. Weekly bias is stronger at 53.1% bullish.
Dataset Overview

Historical Data Range

Start of range
09 Jun 1993
End of range
01 Jan 2023
Highest close
1.1018
18 Aug 2011
Lowest close
0.4793
18 May 2001
Largest gain
+7.86%
13 Nov 2008
Largest loss
−7.59%
26 Nov 2008
Avg daily volume
79,753
Peak volume day
1,153,132
24 Oct 2012
Timeframe Breakdown

Bullish vs Bearish Counts

Bullish edge across all TFs
Bullish Days
4,204
52.2% of days
Bearish Days
3,845
47.8% of days
Bullish Weeks
654
of 1,231 weeks
Bearish Weeks
577
of 1,231 weeks
Bullish Months
144
of 283 months
Bearish Months
139
of 283 months
Statistical Distribution

Volatility Statistics

Daily returns · 8,049 obs.
0.002%
Mean
0.008%
Median
0.58%
Std Dev
0.014%
Std Error
2.14
Kurtosis
−0.25
Skewness
+2.91%
Max Gain
−3.84%
Max Loss
Kurtosis comparison across all pairs
AUD/JPY
13.30 ⚠️
USD/JPY
4.91
AUD/USD
2.14
AUD/USD
1.83

AUD/USD sits between AUD/USD and USD/JPY — moderate tail risk driven by commodity cycle shocks and risk-off episodes. The GFC (Nov 2008) produced both the largest single-day gain (+7.86%) and loss (−7.59%) within just 13 days of each other.

Near-symmetric distribution with mild negative skew (−0.25) and moderate fat tails (kurtosis 2.14). 6.75% total return range — the tightest across all four tracked pairs.

Observations

Key Trading Insights

Clearest Bullish Edge

52.2% bullish — strongest daily bias of all four pairs

AUD/USD has the most pronounced daily bullish tilt in the dataset. The 4.4% gap between bulls and bears is meaningful over 32 years.

Consistent Bull Bias

53.1% weekly · 51.4% monthly closes bullish

Unlike AUD/JPY which flips bearish monthly, the Aussie maintains a bullish lean across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes simultaneously.

Bullish Momentum

65.15% higher highs on up days

On bullish days, 2 in 3 sessions print a higher high. Consistent with AUD/USD, USD/JPY, and AUD/JPY — a universal forex pattern.

Bearish Conviction

64.34% lower lows on down days

Sellers control structure on bearish days — nearly 2 in 3 red closes make lower lows. A near-identical pattern to AUD/JPY.

Tightest Tail Risk

Kurtosis 2.14 — most contained tails

AUD/USD has the lowest kurtosis across all four pairs, meaning extreme daily moves occur less frequently than in AUD/JPY or USD/JPY.

GFC Symmetry

+7.86% and −7.59% within 13 days

The largest single-day gain and loss in the dataset both occurred in November 2008 during the GFC — a rare symmetric crash-and-rally event.

Data Library

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Bullish Streak Probabilities

Continuation and reversal odds after consecutive bullish closes on AUD/USD daily candles.

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Higher High Streak Probabilities

Frequency and reversal probability of consecutive daily higher highs forming on AUD/USD.

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Lower Low Streak Probabilities

Frequency and reversal probability of consecutive daily lower lows forming on AUD/USD.

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Open – Close Range Probabilities

How far from the daily open price closes on bullish and bearish days — range percentile distributions for AUD/USD.

Daily · Data Viewer View →
Data Hub

AUD/USD Data Hub

The full AUD/USD dataset library — streaks, ranges, calendars, and key statistics in one place.

All AUD/USD datasets View All →
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