EUR/CAD · Historical Odds of Breaking Daily Extremes
by Weekday
Data-driven analysis for EUR/CAD: how bearish/bullish session closes affect the probability of failing to break key weekday levels. Thresholds include any %, >0.5%, and >0.8% moves.
Probability of NOT Breaking Weekday High
After a bearish daily close (any decline), the probability that price will fail to break the session's high. Data segmented by decline magnitude.
Any Bearish Close
EUR/CAD: Thursday shows a 71.4% chance of failing to break high after any bearish close.
Bearish >0.5% Decline
Larger declines (>0.5%) boost Thursday no-break probability to 88.6%.
Bearish >0.8% Decline
Steep declines >0.8% yield a 93.5% Thursday no-break-high probability — extremely high conviction for a failed breakout.
Probability of NOT Breaking Weekday Low
After a bullish daily close (any rise), the probability that price will fail to break the session's low. Segmented by rise magnitude.
Any Bullish Close
Bullish close: Thursday no-low-break probability at 68.1%.
Bullish >0.5% Rise
Rallies >0.5% drive Thursday no-low-break probability to 89.0%.
Bullish >0.8% Rise
Strong bullish momentum (>0.8%) pushes Thursday no-low-break to 90.2%.
Thursday "No Break" Probability by Threshold
Thursday shows exceptionally strong failure-to-break tendencies for EUR/CAD. Bearish >0.8% closes lead to a 93.5% probability of not breaking the high — one of the highest signals for a failed breakout across all pairs.
Strategic Insights · EUR/CAD
Thursday Bearish ≥0.8% = 93.5% No High Break
EUR/CAD's highest conviction signal: after a Thursday bearish close exceeding 0.8%, probability of failing to break the weekly high reaches 93.5% — extremely actionable for fading breakouts.
Thursday Bullish >0.8% → 90.2% No Low Break
Strong Thursday rallies (>0.8%) yield a 90.2% chance of failing to break the low. High-probability signal for a failure to push lower.
Friday Closes → 0% No Break (100% Break)
Any Friday close results in a weekend gap that ensures either the high or low is broken by Monday open — critical for swing positioning.
Wednesday Shows Dramatic Jump to 89.5%
Wednesday bearish >0.8% no-break probability jumps to 89.5% — a 33-point increase from any decline (56.7%). Powerful mid-week signal for failed breakouts.
Explore Our EUR/CAD Datasets
Dive deeper into specific aspects of EUR/CAD price action.
Consecutive Higher High Streaks
Frequency and success rate of consecutive daily higher highs forming across tracked history.
Bullish Day Open – High Range
Distribution of how far price travels from the daily open to the session high on bullish days.
Bullish Day Open – Close Range
How far from the daily open price closes on bullish days — range percentile distributions.
Bullish Day Open – Low Range
Drawdown distribution from daily open to session low on bullish days — key for stop placement.
EUR/USD Bullish Streak Probability
Compare bullish streak continuation odds on EUR/USD — the world's most traded pair.
EUR/CAD Data Hub
The full EUR/CAD dataset library — streaks, ranges, calendars, and key statistics in one place.