Bullish Day Open — Low Statistics

EUR/JPY Range
Distribution

Comprehensive analysis of how far price moves from the open on bullish days in EUR/JPY. Based on 2,966 bullish sessions spanning 24 years.

Updated 31 Mar 2026 · 13:22 n = 2,966 24yr dataset
Sample
2,966
Total Bullish Days
Peak Zone
20.47%
10–100 pip range · highest density
Avg Range
336.5
Average open → low pips
Cumulative
71.1%
Lows within 400 pips of open
Raw Data

Open–Low Range Distribution

Range (Pips)Days% of TotalDistributionRolling %

Rolling % = cumulative probability of reaching at least that pip bucket on a bullish day.

Probability Curve

Cumulative Distribution

71.1% of bullish days: low within 400 pips
89.2% of bullish days: low within 600 pips
Frequency Chart

Range Distribution Histogram

2,966 bullish sessions

10–100 pip range dominates at 20.47% — ideal zone for tight stop placement below the open.

Observations

Key Trading Insights

Controlled Dips

71% Within 400 Pips

Strong yen support zone. Majority of pullbacks remain shallow, favoring long entries on moderation.

Peak Density

20.47%: 10–100 Pips

Highest concentration — ideal tight stop zone for active traders. Most bullish days barely retrace before rallying.

79% Within 500 Pips

Risk-On Confidence

4 out of 5 bullish days stay under 500 pips. Manageable risk for swing strategies and trend followers.

Rare Crashes

2.33% Over 1500 Pips

Tail risk remains low. Use dynamic stops — extreme dips are isolated to macro shocks (BOJ/ECB surprises).

Strategy Framework

Trading Application

Protect longs. Pullbacks are generally shallow — align risk parameters with historical density.

Stop Placement

120–200 pips below open

Matches 10–200 pip high-density cluster. Balances statistical probability and risk efficiency.

Trail Under 400 Pips

Breakout confirmation

71% of lows are ≤400 pips. Once price extends beyond, tighten stops to lock profits before rare deep dips.

Avoid Wide Stops

59% recover fast

Overly wide stops (>500 pips) degrade R/R; use mean-reversion entries around 300–400 pip dips on confirmed setups.

Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Watch USD/JPY correlation & BOJ interventions. USD/JPY correlation: −0.71 (significant)
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