Open — Close Statistics · Bullish Day Analysis

GBP/AUD Bullish
Upside Drift Range

Precision analysis of net bullish movement: how far price closes above the open on up days. Based on 2,990 bullish sessions spanning 24 years.

Updated 17 Apr 2026 n = 2,990 24yr dataset
Sample
2,990
Bullish days analysed
Peak Zone
7.89%
100–200 pip close range · highest density
Avg Close Range
853.5
Average open → close pips (bullish)
Extreme Edge
22.94%
Close ≥ 1500 pips from open
Raw Data

Open–Close Bullish Distribution

Range (Pips)Days% of TotalDistributionRolling %

Rolling % = cumulative probability of closing at least that pip range higher on a bullish day.

Cumulative Probability

Upside Close Curve

77.06% of bullish days: close ≥ 1400 pips above open
22.94% exceed 1500 pips — extreme follow-through
Frequency Chart

Close Range Distribution Histogram

2,990 bullish sessions

Peak density at 100–200 pips (7.89%) — sweet spot for scaling into long positions.

Observations

Key Trading Insights

Massive Drift

22.94% > 1500 Pips

Nearly 1 in 4 bullish days closes over 1500 pips — trend king! Let runners ride.

Balanced Closes

100–600 pips — healthy

Consistent accumulation zone; scale partial profits without leaving too early.

77% Above 1400

Insane follow-through

More than three quarters exceed 1400 pips — strong momentum persistence.

Peak: 100-200

7.89% — common close

Highest density zone, ideal for first profit target after breakout confirmation.

Strategy Framework

Trading Profit Target Application

Open–Close range defines net daily movement. Use these probabilities to set high-conviction take-profit levels for long setups.

Take profits every 600 pips

Scale at 600, 1200, 1800

Align with distribution density — bank gains systematically.

Trail above 1200 pips

Let winners breathe

77% chance to exceed 1400 → use trailing stops beyond 1200.

Hold for 2000+

Commodity weakness

Extreme drift occurs during risk-off / iron ore declines → hold partial position.

Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Combine with technical/fundamental analysis. GBP/AUD correlation: Iron ore, risk sentiment, BoE vs RBA policy divergence.
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Full dataset — every trading day since 2000
Percentile distribution: 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, 95th, 99th
Volatility regime breakdown (low/med/high volatility periods)
Reversal / pattern analysis by streak length
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Tip: Layer multiple datasets for edge — e.g., combine Consecutive Higher High Streaks with Bullish Close Probability Calendar. Upgrade to Pro · unlock all datasets →