USD/CAD Bearish Day · Open–High Range Statistics

USD/CAD Bearish
Open–High Distribution

Comprehensive analysis of how far USD/CAD rallies above the daily open on bearish sessions. Based on 5,567 bearish days across 24 years.

Updated 07 Nov 2025 n = 5,567 24yr dataset
Sample
5,567
Bearish days analyzed
Peak Zone
26.32%
10–100 pip range · most common
Avg High Range
196.8
Average open → high pips
Cumulative
92.5%
Highs within 500 pips of open
Raw Data

Open–High Range Distribution

Range (Pips)Days% of TotalDistributionRolling %

Rolling % = cumulative probability of high forming within that pip range on a bearish day.

Probability Curve

Cumulative Distribution (Open–High)

78.6% of bearish days: high within 300 pips
92.5% of bearish days: high within 500 pips
Frequency Chart

Open–High Distribution Histogram

5,567 bearish sessions

10–100 pip range dominates at 26.32% — extremely tight counter-rallies on bearish days.

Observations

Key Trading Insights

Tight Retracements

64% within 200 pips

Over 64% of bearish days see the high within 200 pips — USD/CAD shorts rarely rally far.

Stop Coverage

92.5% < 500 pips

A stop-loss beyond 500 pips covers 92.5% of all counter-moves. Ideal for swing shorts.

Peak Density

10–100 & 100–200 pips

Dominant buckets at ~26% and 25% respectively — prime zone for stop placement.

75% Threshold

300 pips covers 78.6%

Place stops above 300 pips to cover 78.6% of highs; only 21% extend further.

Strategy Framework

Trading Stop-Loss Application (Open–High)

On bearish USD/CAD days, the extremely tight Open-High range allows for very aggressive stop placement.

Ultra-tight stops

120 pips above entry

Covers ~64% of bearish days; ideal for high-probability mean reversion.

Standard stop

520 pips for 92.5% coverage

Captures nearly all counter-rallies while maintaining risk efficiency.

Aggressive trailing

Trail after 300 pips

Only 21% go beyond 300 pips — tighten stops to lock gains on extended moves.

Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Combine with technical/fundamental analysis.WTI correlation: −0.71 (strong)
Raw Dataset

Explore the Underlying Data

Rows
—
Total rows in file
Columns
—
Data columns detected
Sheets
—
Sheets in workbook
Preview
100
Rows shown (free tier)

Loading dataset…

Fetching workbook.

Pro Access

Unlock the Full Dataset

SFD Pro Dataset Access
Complete dataset · Percentile tables · CSV export
Full dataset — every trading day since 2000
Percentile distribution: 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, 95th, 99th
Volatility regime breakdown (low/med/high volatility periods)
Reversal / pattern analysis by streak length
One-click CSV export for backtesting and statistical modeling
Learn More
Free vs Pro
Feature Free Pro
Row limit100All rows
Percentile tables✗✓
Volatility breakdown✗✓
Pattern analysis✗✓
CSV export✗✓
Data Library

Explore Our USD/CAD Datasets

Dive deeper into specific aspects of USD/CAD price action.

Free

Bearish Day Open – Close Range Frequency

How far from the daily open price closes on bearish days — range percentile distributions.

All bearish daily closes View →
Free

Bearish Day Open – Low Range Frequency

Distribution of how far price falls from the daily open to the session low on bearish days.

Daily candles analysed View →
Free

Consecutive Lower Low Streaks

Frequency and success rate of consecutive daily lower lows forming across tracked history.

Daily candles analysed View →
Related Pair

USD/CHF Bearish Open – High Range

Compare bearish open-high rejection distributions on USD/CHF — a highly correlated USD pair.

Daily candles analysed View →
Related Pair

USD/JPY Bearish Open – High Range

Compare bearish open-high rejection distributions on USD/JPY — the direct EUR strength cross.

Daily candles analysed View →
Data Hub

USD/CAD Data Hub

The full USD/CAD dataset library — streaks, ranges, calendars, and key statistics in one place.

All USD/CAD datasets View All →
Tip: Layer multiple datasets for edge — e.g., combine Consecutive Higher High Streaks with Bullish Close Probability Calendar. Upgrade to Pro · unlock all datasets →