Open — High Statistics · Bearish Day Analysis

USD/CHF Bearish
Open–High Distribution

Comprehensive analysis of how far USD/CHF trades above the daily open on bearish sessions. Based on 5,459 bearish days spanning decades of price history.

Updated 07 Nov 2025 n = 5,459 24yr dataset
Sample
5,459
Bearish days analysed
Peak Zone
21.47%
100–200 pip range · most common
Avg High Range
313.6
Average open → high pips
Cumulative
72.8%
Highs within 400 pips of open
Raw Data

Open–High Range Distribution (Bearish Days)

Range (Pips)Days% of TotalDistributionRolling %

Rolling % = cumulative probability of high forming at/below that range on a bearish day.

Probability Curve

Cumulative Distribution (Open → High)

72.8% of bearish days: high within 400 pips
94.5% of bearish days: high within 800 pips
Frequency Chart

Open-High Range Histogram

5,459 bearish sessions

100–200 pip range dominates at 21.47% — prime zone for stop-loss placement above the open on short entries.

Observations

Key Trading Insights

Peak Retracement Zone

100–200 Pips · 21.47%

Highest density bucket — counter-moves are often contained. Ideal for placing initial stops above this zone.

70% Stop Coverage

Beyond 400 Pips = 72.8%

A stop-loss placed 400 pips above the open covers nearly 3 in 4 bearish days — robust risk management baseline.

80% Threshold

500 Pips = 80.38%

High is within 500 pips on 80% of bearish days — conservative stop offers high historical coverage.

Certainty Zone

900+ Pips = 94.5%

Stops beyond 900 pips historically survive 94.5% of all bearish day counter-moves; extreme safety net.

Strategy Framework

Stop-Loss Application (Open – High)

On bearish USD/CHF days, the high distribution helps set effective stop-loss levels for short trades.

Conservative Stop

520 pips above entry

Covers ~85% of historical counter-moves. Balances safety and capital efficiency.

Mid-Stop

320 pips above entry

Aligns with end of 200–300 pip bucket — 61% historical coverage, tighter risk.

Aggressive Trail

Trail after 700 pips

Only 10% of bearish days exceed 700 pips — lock in profits once extended.

Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Combine with technical/fundamental analysis. SNB policy & risk sentiment drivers
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Full dataset — every trading day since 2000
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