USD/JPY Bearish
Range Distribution
Comprehensive analysis of how far USD/JPY trades below the daily open on bearish sessions. Based on 5,418 bearish days spanning 24 years.
Open–Low Range (Bearish Days)
| Range (Pips) | Days | % of Total | Distribution | Rolling % |
|---|
Rolling % = cumulative probability of reaching that pip bucket on a bearish day.
Open–Low Cumulative Distribution
Range Distribution Histogram
400–500 pip range dominates at 12.42% — key downside target zone for short entries.
Key Trading Insights (Bearish Edge)
300–600 pips = 34.10%
Core downside cluster: nearly 1 in 3 bearish days drop 300–600 pips. Ideal for primary TP zone.
56.4% >500 pips
Half of bearish days extend beyond 500 pips; statistically sound stop-placement level for shorts.
2.75% >1500 pips
Rare but explosive moves: leave a runner with trailing stop to capture extreme sell-offs.
1100 pips covers 90.5%
Targets beyond 1100 pips become statistically rare – great for high-probability exits.
Take-Profit Application (Open – Low)
Realistic downside targets for short positions based on 24 years of bearish data.
450–550 pips
Mid-range cluster (300–600) offers highest probability for initial profit target.
800 pips covers ~75%
Nearly 75% of bearish lows complete within 800 pips. Robust for scaling out.
Capture >1500 pips moves
Let a small runner ride with trailing stop: 2.75% of days exceed 1500 pips – outsized reward.
Explore Our USD/JPY Datasets
Dive deeper into specific aspects of USD/JPY price action.
Bearish Day Open – Close Range Frequency
How far from the daily open price closes on bearish days — range percentile distributions.
Bearish Day Open – High Range Frequency
How far price pushes above the daily open before reversing on bearish days — rejection percentile distributions.
Consecutive Lower Low Streaks
Frequency and success rate of consecutive daily lower lows forming across tracked history.
USD/CAD Bearish Open – Low Range
Compare bearish open-low extension distributions on USD/CAD — a highly correlated USD pair.
USD/CHF Bearish Open – Low Range
Compare bearish open-low extension distributions on USD/CHF — the direct EUR strength cross.
USD/JPY Data Hub
The full USD/JPY dataset library — streaks, ranges, calendars, and key statistics in one place.