Open — High Statistics · Bullish Day Analysis

EUR/JPY Range
Bullish Momentum

Comprehensive analysis of how far EUR/JPY rallies above the daily open on bullish sessions. Based on 2,966 bullish days spanning 24 years of price history.

Updated 31 Mar 2026 n = 2,966 24yr dataset
Sample
2,966
Bullish days analysed
Peak Zone
10.15%
400–500 pip range · most common
Avg Range
856.8
Average open → high pips
Explosive Tails
13.96%
>1500 pip rallies · carry trade fuel
Raw Data

Open–High Range Distribution

Range (Pips)Days% of TotalDistributionRolling %

Rolling % = cumulative probability of reaching at least that pip bucket on a bullish day.

Probability Curve

Cumulative Distribution

67.4% of bullish days: high within 1000 pips
13.96% exceed 1500 pips — explosive yen weakness
Frequency Chart

Range Distribution Histogram

2,966 bullish sessions

400–500 pip zone dominates at 10.15% — momentum sweet spot for EUR/JPY breakouts.

Observations

Key Trading Insights

Explosive Rallies

13.96% exceed 1500 pips

Carry trade flows and yen weakness fuel extreme moves — nearly 1 in 7 bullish days see a rally beyond 1500 pips from open.

Peak: 400-500 pips

10.15% momentum zone

Highest single bucket density. Ideal for trailing stops and adding to longs after initial thrust.

86%+ above 1400 pips

Rarely quiet on bullish days

Over 86% of bullish sessions rally beyond 1400 pips — consistent trend days with strong follow-through.

Yen Weakness

50%+ beyond 700 pips

More than half of all bullish days push 700+ pips higher — structural JPY selling pressure.

Strategy Framework

Ride the Yen Weakness

Big moves ahead — let trends run with conviction. Data-backed approach for EUR/JPY breakouts.

Target 800–1200 pips

25%+ hit rate zone

Statistically high-probability extension. Aligns with the 800-1200 pip cumulative density.

Scale out at 1000, 1500+

Lock profits stepwise

Partial exits at key psychological thresholds; let runner capture tail risk above 1500 pips.

Let winners run on risk-on

Carry trade backdrop

High correlation with USD/JPY & risk appetite; avoid premature exits during strong yen selloffs.

Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Watch USD/JPY correlation & BoJ policy. USD/JPY correlation: +0.72 (significant)
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