EUR/USD Bearish
Net Range Distribution
Comprehensive analysis of how far EUR/USD trades below the daily open on bearish sessions. Based on 3,146 bearish days over 24 years of price history — net movement (open → close).
Open–Close Range Distribution (Bearish Days)
| Range (Pips) | Days | % of Total | Distribution | Rolling % |
|---|
Rolling % = cumulative probability of closing at least that far below open on a bearish day.
Open-Close Cumulative Probability
Open-Close Range Distribution Histogram
100–200 pip range dominates at 13.80% — primary profit zone for short positions. 400–500 pips marks median threshold.
Key Trading Insights
100–200 Pips | 13.80%
The single largest bucket — ideal profit target for intraday shorts. Followed closely by 10–100 pip moves.
400+ Pips | 50.45%
Exactly half of bearish days close 400 pips or more below open — statistical expected profit zone for swing trades.
900 Pips | 82.6%
Over 82% of bearish moves are ≤900 pips. Scale out aggressively within this zone to lock gains.
4.74% >1500 Pips
Rare but massive: 1 in 21 bearish days yields 1500+ pip net gains. Let a runner ride for these outliers.
Trading Application · Open → Close Net Movement
Use net daily ranges to set high-probability end-of-day targets and manage risk on bearish setups.
400–500 pips (median threshold)
50% of bearish days exceed this move — ideal take-profit for systematic shorts.
800–900 pips
Captures 82%+ of all bearish moves. Scale 70–80% of position here, let remainder ride.
Hold 10–20% for >1500 pips
4.74% of days deliver monster moves — small runner captures outlier gains without overexposing.
Explore Our EUR/USD Datasets
Dive deeper into specific aspects of EUR/USD price action.
Bearish Day Open – Low Range Frequency
Distribution of how far price falls from the daily open to the session low on bearish days.
Bearish Day Open – High Range Frequency
How far price pushes above the daily open before reversing on bearish days — rejection percentile distributions.
Consecutive Lower Low Streaks
Frequency and success rate of consecutive daily lower lows forming across tracked history.
EUR/JPY Bearish Open – Close Range
Compare bearish open-close range distributions on EUR/JPY — a highly correlated USD pair.
EUR/GBP Bearish Open – Close Range
Compare bearish open-close range distributions on EUR/GBP — the direct EUR strength cross.
EUR/USD Data Hub
The full EUR/USD dataset library — streaks, ranges, calendars, and key statistics in one place.