Open — Close Statistics · Bullish Day Analysis

EUR/USD Range
Bullish Close Drift

Comprehensive analysis of how far price moves from the open on bullish days in EUR/USD. Based on 2,798 bullish sessions.

Last Updated 31 Mar 2026 · 18:09 UTC n = 2,798 24yr dataset
Total Bullish Days
2,798
Bullish closes analysed
Peak Zone
23.12%
1.0–10.0 pip range · most common
Avg Range
31.11
Average open → close pips
Cumulative
73.45%
Closes within 40 pips of open
Raw Data

Open–Close Range Distribution (Pips)

Range (Pips)Days% of TotalDistributionRolling %

Rolling % = cumulative probability of closing at least that far above open on a bullish day.

Probability Curve

Cumulative Distribution

87% of bullish days: close within 60 pips
96.3% of bullish days: close within 100 pips
Frequency Chart

Range Distribution Histogram

2,798 bullish sessions

1.0–10.0 pip range dominates at 23.12% — extremely tight closes, ideal for scalping strategies.

Observations

Key Trading Insights

Tight Closes

73% close within 40 pips

Low drift from open — bullish momentum rarely extends far intraday.

Peak: 1.0–10.0

23.12% — minimal follow-through

Often a reversal sign; quick profit-taking advised after small gains.

87% below 60.0

Scalper’s dream

High probability of small gains; take profits quickly and avoid holding for large moves.

Stable King

Only 1.72% over 150 pips

Extremely stable day-end drift, ideal for mean reversion around close.

Strategy Framework

Trading Application

Lock profits fast — drift is minimal. Capitalize on low volatility structure.

Take profits fast

Every 10.0–20.0 pips

Given 23% of days close <10 pips, lock in gains early — scale out aggressively.

Fade moves past 50 pips

Mean reversion towards close

Only 13% exceed 50 pips — selling extended bullish moves has high success.

Hold overnight?

Tiny gap risk

Ultra-low drift reduces overnight slippage; but beware NFP/CPI gaps.

Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Watch NFP & CPI releases. Avg true range (ATR) correlation: moderate stability.
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