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Open — Low Statistics · Bullish Day Analysis

EUR/USD Range
Tight Pullback Profile

Comprehensive analysis of how far EUR/USD trades below the daily open on bullish sessions. Based on 3,243 bullish days spanning 24 years of price history.

Updated 30 Mar 2026 n = 3,243 24yr dataset
View Range Probabilities Explore Trading Insights Open Source Data
Sample
3,243
Bullish days analysed
Peak Zone
23.93%
10.0–20.0 pip range · most common
Avg Range
27.17
Average open → low pips
Cumulative
79.7%
Lows within 40 pips of open
Raw Data

Open–Low Range Distribution

Range (Pips)Days% of TotalDistributionRolling %

Rolling % = cumulative probability of reaching that pip depth on a bullish day.

Probability Curve

Cumulative Distribution

91.2% of bullish days: low within 60 pips
97.4% of bullish days: low within 100 pips
Frequency Chart

Range Distribution Histogram

3,243 bullish sessions

10–20 pip range dominates at 23.93% — prime zone for stop-loss placement below the open.

Observations

Key Trading Insights

Tight Dips

79% within 40 pips

Rock-solid support zone: nearly 4 out of 5 bullish days stay within 40 pips of open. Ideal for precision stops.

Peak: 10–20 Pips

23.93% density

Highest concentration zone — common stop placement area below open that balances probability and risk.

91% within 60 pips

Micro-risk Scalps

Majority of dips are shallow, allowing for efficient risk management and quick recovery of long positions.

Rare Blowouts

1.20% over 150 pips

Tail risk is minimal. Extreme dips >150 pips occur only ~1 in 83 bullish sessions. Tight risk parameters work.

Strategy Framework

Trading Application

Protect longs. Pullbacks are shallow — structure stops accordingly.

Stop Placement

8.0–15.0 pips below open

Aligns with the 10–20 & 20–30 peak zones. Captures 70%+ of natural retracements.

Trail Stops

Trail under 30 pips on momentum

79% of days stay under 40 pips; tighten trailing stops to lock gains before rare extensions.

Reversion Entry

Buy dips 20–30 pips

Historic mean-reversion edge: shallow pullbacks on bullish days offer favorable risk/reward.

Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Watch NFP & CPI releases. ECB/FOMC correlation: moderate
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Data Hub

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The full EUR/USD dataset library — streaks, ranges, calendars, and key statistics in one place.

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Tip: Layer multiple datasets for edge — e.g., combine Consecutive Higher High Streaks with Bullish Close Probability Calendar. Upgrade to Pro · unlock all datasets →
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© 2026 SmartFinanceData. All data is historical and does not guarantee future performance.