Consecutive Lower Low Analysis · 1,387 Bearish Data Points

EUR/USD Consecutive
Lower Low Day Statistics

Professional EUR/USD Daily lower low streak analytics designed to reveal hidden bearish momentum cycles, reversal thresholds, and statistically significant exhaustion zones.

Updated Apr 3, 2026 n = 1,387 lower low Daily TF
Sample
1,387
Total lower low data points
Base Rate
44.77%
Single day bearish probability
Reversal Signal
87.03%
Reversal probability after 3 lower lows
Streak Analysis

Consecutive Lower Low Probabilities

Bearish Streaks
Downside Continuation

Streak Breakdown

1,387 obs.
StreakOccurrencesContinue %Reversal %
1 Day64244.77%55.23%
2 Day37326.91%73.09%
3 Day Signal18612.97%87.03%
4 Day1178.16%91.84%
5 Day584.04%95.96%
6 Day322.23%97.77%
7 Day110.77%99.23%
8 Day80.56%99.44%
9 Day40.28%99.72%
10 Day20.14%99.86%
13 Day10.07%99.93%

Streaks of 11, 12, 14+ days: 0 occurrences. Max recorded streak: 13 days.

Frequency

Lower Low Streak Distribution

Occurrences

Frequency of consecutive lower low days. Most streaks end within 2–3 days.

Mean-Reversion

Reversal Probability by Streak

Reversal %

Likelihood of upward reversal increases sharply with streak length. After 3 days, odds exceed 87%.

Visual Breakdown

Continuation vs Reversal at Each Streak

Range Behaviour

Volatility Insights: Daily Price Range

Key Metrics

Range Stats

72.6
Avg Daily Range (pips)
Wednesday
Most Volatile Day
94.3
Avg Range After 3-Day Lower Low

After 3 consecutive lower lows, average daily range expands by +29.9% vs baseline.

Intraday Volatility

Avg Daily Range by Day of Week

Pip Range

Wednesday historically delivers the widest intraday ranges for EUR/USD — key for targeting larger directional moves.

Observations

Key Trading Insights

Insight 1

Single Day Lower Lows Below 45%

After one lower low, only 44.77% continue — 55.23% reverse. Downside persistence is weaker than a coin flip.

Insight 2

Two-Day Streaks Resist Continuation

After 2 lower lows, 26.91% continue — 73.09% reverse. Downward momentum stalls quickly.

Insight 3 · Key Signal

Three Days Signals High Reversal

After 3 lower lows, 87.03% reverse. Only 12.97% continue — powerful mean-reversion trigger for long setups.

Insight 4

Extended Downward Streaks Are Rare

Only 8.16% of streaks last 4+ days. Beyond 5 days, reversal odds exceed 95%. Longest recorded: 13 days.

Potential Trading Application

EUR/USD resists extended downside runs. After 3+ consecutive lower lows, reversal probability exceeds 87%. Consider:

Scaling into longs after 3+ lower lows due to high reversal probability
Taking profits on shorts after 2-day lower low runs
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Combine with technical/fundamental analysis.
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Frequency and success rate of consecutive daily lower lows forming across tracked history.

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