TradeInsight

Forex Kelly Criterion Calculator

Optimize your position sizing with the Kelly Criterion formula to maximize long-term account growth while managing risk based on your win rate and risk-reward ratio.

Risk Management Position Sizing Money Management

Calculate Optimal Position Sizing using Kelly Criterion

%

Your historical win percentage (e.g., 60 for 60%)

R

Average profit/loss ratio (e.g., 2 means average win is twice the average loss)

$
%

How much of your account you typically risk per trade

%

Percentage of the full Kelly to use (fractional Kelly)

Results

Full Kelly %

20.00%

Mathematically optimal but risky

Fractional Kelly %

10.00%

Recommended position size

Amount to Risk Per Trade

$1,000.00

Comparison to Current Risk

You should increase your risk by 8.00%

Expected Growth Rate

+2.6% per trade

Results are theoretical and assume your win rate and reward-risk ratio remain consistent.

Understanding the Kelly Criterion

  • The full Kelly formula is: K% = W - [(1-W)/R] where W is win rate and R is reward-to-risk ratio.
  • Most professional traders use a fractional Kelly (e.g., Half-Kelly) to reduce volatility.
  • The Kelly strategy maximizes logarithmic utility and long-term growth rate.
  • This approach assumes your edge (win rate and reward-risk ratio) remains consistent.