Explore GBP/CAD's daily high/low range behavior from August 4th, 2000, to January 1st, 2023. Uncover the frequency and probability of daily Highs and Lows forming at specific distances from the Open price, providing invaluable insights for informed trading decisions. These insights can help you set tighter, data-backed stops and assess the remaining potential of each days price movement based on historical patterns.
Set your stop loss 70 pips below the Open price on bullish days.
Given that 78.20% of bullish days form a low within 70 pips of the Open, this offers high chance (78.20%) your stop loss won't be hit, minimizing stop outs unnecessary exits. If you're comfortable with a slightly higher risk, consider setting your stop loss 60 pips below the Open. This provides a balance between protecting your capital and allowing the trade room to breathe.
The higher price rises, the less chance of further up-movement.
68.25% of bullish days form a high within 150 pips of the Open. This means buying after a 150 pip rise gives you only a 31.75% chance of profiting from any further up-movement during the day. If you're already holding a position open or trade intra-day, consider taking partial or full profits once price moves 150 pips or more from the open. Price is far more likely to retrace than continue rising.
Most large bullish price moves tail off and close beneath the daily high.
78.04% of bullish days close within 130 pips of the Open, but only 59.23% of days form a high within 130 pips of the open. So, price rises much further than it closes during bullish days. This data further highlights why taking profits at the peak of large bullish days is so important. It also means fading large rises can provide profitable bullish scalps.
The table above shows 68.25% of all bullish days form a high within 150 pips of the opening price. When price approaches or surpasses the 150 pip mark above the open on a bullish day, it suggests a significant portion of the day's upward potential may have been realized.
This doesn't mean price can't go higher, but the majority (68.25%) of bullish days have historically formed a high below 150 pips.
Key Trading Takeaways:
1) Use the 150 pip level as a potential profit-taking trigger on bullish days (only 25.84% of days close higher!)
2) Be cautious about chasing further gains if a high forms 150 pips from the open.
3) Consider adjusting profit targets or tightening stop-loss orders if price forms a high 150 pips away.
4) Use the distances to help time reversals at key technical points (SD Zones/Psychological Levels).
5) If price moves 110 pips from the open, the high holds around a 50/50 chance of breaking or holding (48.42%)
6) Don't secure profits unless price moves at least 60 pips from the Open: Only 15.27% of days form a high lower.
Set your stop loss 70 pips above the Open price on bearish days.
Given that 80.64% of bearish days form a high within 70 pips of the Open, this offers high chance (19.36%) your stop loss won't be hit, minimizing stop outs unnecessary exits. If you're comfortable with a slightly higher risk, consider setting your stop loss 60 pips above the Open. This provides a balance between protecting your capital and allowing the trade room to breathe.
The lower price falls, the less chance of further down-movement.
68.22% of bearish days form a low within 150 pips of the Open. This means selling after a 150 pip decline gives you only a 33.78% chance of profiting from any further down-movement during the day. If you're holding a position open or trade intra-day, consider taking partial or full profits once price moves 150 pips or more from the open. Price is far more likely to retrace than continue falling.
Most large bearish price moves tail off and close above the daily low.
71.54% of bearish days close within 110 pips of the Open, but only 49.21% of days form a low within 110 pips of the open. So, price falls much further than it actually closes during bearish days. This data further highlights why taking profits at the peak of large bearish days is so important. It also means fading large declines can provide profitable bearish scalps.
The table above shows 68.22% of all bearish days form a Low within 150 pips of the opening price. When price approaches the 150 pip mark below the open on a bearish day, it suggests a significant portion of the day's downward potential may have been realized.
While further downside movement is possible, 68.22% of bearish days historically establish their low within 150 pips of the open.
Key Trading Takeaways:
1) Profit Taking: Consider taking profits on bearish days when price reaches 150 pips below the open.
2) Be wary of chasing further downside once price hits 150 pips below the open.
3) If a low forms 150 pips away from the open, consider tightening your stop-loss or adjusting profit targets.
4) Use these distances to anticipate reversals at key technical levels like S&D zones or psychological numbers.
5) At 110 pips from the open, the odds of price falling further vs forming a low are almost even.
6) Avoid taking profits until price moves at least 60 pips from the open: 18.07% of days form a low higher than 400.
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