Open — High Statistics · Bearish Day Analysis

GBP/NZD Bearish
Range Dynamics

Comprehensive analysis of how far GBP/NZD rallies above the daily open on bearish sessions. Based on 3,183 bearish days covering extensive historical price action.

Updated 02 Nov 2025 n = 3,183 24yr dataset
Sample
3,183
Bearish days analysed
Peak Zone
10.78%
200–300 pip range · most frequent
Avg High Range
638.2
Average open → high pips
Coverage
90.2%
Highs within 1500 pips from open
Raw Data

Open–High Range Distribution

Range (Pips)Days% of TotalDistributionRolling %

Rolling % = cumulative probability of reaching at least that pip bucket on a bearish day (Open → High).

Probability Curve

Cumulative Distribution

78.8% of bearish days: high within 900 pips
90.2% exceed 1500 pips stop covers most volatility
Frequency Chart

Range Distribution Histogram

3,183 bearish sessions

200–300 pip range leads at 10.78% — prime retracement zone for short entries & stop placement.

Observations

Key Trading Insights

Peak Retracement

10.78% in 200–300 Pips

Most frequent zone for daily high on bearish days. Ideal for limit short entries after initial pullback.

High-Confidence Stop

>1500 pips covers 90%

Only 9.89% exceed 1500 pips — placing stops beyond this level offers exceptional historical coverage for shorts.

Initial Pullback

94%+ move >10 pips

Price almost always rallies at least 10 pips after open — avoid immediate market orders.

75% Coverage

900-pip threshold

Stop at 900 pips covers 74.2% of moves — a moderate, high-frequency level for tighter risk.

Strategy Framework

Stop-Loss & Entry Application (Open–High)

On bearish GBP/NZD days, the open-high range guides optimal stop placement for short entries and identifies high-probability retracement zones.

Conservative Stop

1500–1600 pips above entry

Covers >90% of historical open-high moves — high confidence for swing shorts.

Ideal Entry Zone

100–500 pip cluster (47.8%)

Highest density for day's high — wait for price to reach this zone before initiating short.

Moderate Stop

900 pips (74% coverage)

Balanced risk-reward for active intraday traders.

Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Use with technical/fundamental analysis. GBP/NZD: high volatility, rate divergence between BoE & RBNZ.
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