Open — Low Statistics · Bearish Day Analysis

GBP/NZD Bearish
Open → Low Range

Comprehensive analysis of how far GBP/NZD trades below the daily open on bearish sessions. Based on 3,183 bearish days spanning extensive historical data.

Updated 02 Nov 2025 n = 3,183 Long-term dataset
Sample
3,183
Bearish days analysed
Peak Zone
52.59%
>1500 pip range · dominant extreme
Avg Range
1,357.7
Average open → low pips
Cumulative Edge
97.14%
Lows beyond 200 pips from open
Raw Data

Open–Low Range Distribution

Range (Pips)Days% of TotalDistributionRolling %

Rolling % = cumulative probability of reaching at least that pip bucket on a bearish day.

Probability Curve

Cumulative Distribution (Bearish)

52.59% of bearish days: low extends >1500 pips
Only 2.86% stay within 400 pips — huge directional momentum
Frequency Chart

Open-Low Range Histogram

3,183 bearish sessions

The >1500 pip range dominates at 52.59% — GBP/NZD exhibits extreme extended bearish moves, validating aggressive profit targets.

Observations

Key Trading Insights

Extreme Volatility Target

>1500 pips in 52.59%

The largest single probability bucket: over half of all bearish days push beyond 1500 pips below open. Extremely extended bearish moves are the norm.

Low-Range Avoidance

<400 pips: only 2.86%

The low forms within 400 pips of the open on just 2.86% of days, confirming GBP/NZD rarely offers weak bearish moves.

Intermediate Target Zone

900–1200 pips: 16.10%

Second most likely cluster (900–1200) offers a reliable first profit target before letting runners extend to the >1500 zone.

Aggressive Expectations

97%+ beyond 200 pips

Almost all bearish days surpass 200 pips; tight targets will fail. Wide profit horizons are essential.

Strategy Framework

Trading Low Target Application (Open → Low)

The open-low range is vital for establishing realistic trailing stops or ultimate take-profit targets, confirming the overall bearish momentum potential for this highly directional pair.

Ultimate Target >1500 pips

High-probability objective

Over 52% of bearish days hit beyond 1500 pips — set aggressive final take-profit.

TP1: 900–1200 pips

Partial close zone

Second highest density (16.1%) — scale out first portion, then let runners ride.

Avoid Tight Targets

<400 pips occurs <3%

This pair demands wide profit targets; premature exits miss the dominant bearish extension.

Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Combine with technical/fundamental analysis. GBP/NZD: high volatility, divergent monetary policy.
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