Open — Close Statistics · Bullish Day Analysis

GBP/NZD Range
Bullish Close Distribution

Comprehensive analysis of how far GBP/NZD moves from the daily open on bullish sessions. Based on 2,971 bullish days spanning 24 years of price history.

Updated 31 Mar 2026 n = 2,971 24yr dataset
Sample
2,971
Bullish days analysed
Mega Drift
29.92%
>1500 pip closes · massive trend
Avg Range
963.2
Average open → close pips
Cumulative
70.1%
Closes within 1400 pips of open
Raw Data

Open–Close Range Distribution

Range (Pips)Days% of TotalDistributionRolling %

Rolling % = cumulative probability of closing at least that far above open on a bullish day.

Probability Curve

Cumulative Distribution

70.1% of bullish days: close within 1400 pips
29.9% exceed 1500 pips — extreme follow-through
Frequency Chart

Range Distribution Histogram

2,971 bullish sessions

29.92% of bullish days close beyond 1500 pips — exceptional drift.

Observations

Key Trading Insights

Huge Drift

29.92% >1500 pips

Exceptional trend potential — almost 1 in 3 bullish days exceed 1500 pips from open.

Balanced Drift

Closes 100–600 pips

~35% of days close in 100–600 range, providing steady trend entries.

70% Above 1400

Massive follow-through

Once price moves 1400 pips from open, 70% probability of staying strongly bullish — exceptional extension.

Peak: 100-200

6.53% — common close

Highest density bucket aligns with early momentum; ideal for partial profit taking.

Strategy Framework

Trading Application

Lock big wins. Drift is huge — let winners run with evidence-backed milestones.

Take profits

Every 500 pips

Scale out at 500, 1000, 1500 pips — aligns with density clusters and huge drift.

Trail above 1200

Trail stops above 1200 pips

70% of days close within 1400 pips; once above 1200, use trailing stops to capture extended runs.

Hold for 2000+

Dairy / risk crashes

Nearly 30% exceed 1500 pips — hold partial position when macro favours NZD weakness or GBP strength.

Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Watch milk prices, UK retail sales & BoE/RBNZ policy divergence. AUD/NZD correlation: +0.58 | GBP volatility premium
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Data Hub

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