Consecutive Lower Low Analysis · 1,382 Bearish Data Points

GBP/NZD Consecutive
Lower Low Day Statistics

Comprehensive GBP/NZD Daily lower low streak statistics focused on upside continuation dynamics, momentum sustainability, and historical reversal tendencies after prolonged bearish expansion.

Updated Apr 4, 2026 n = 1,382 lower lows Daily TF
Sample
1,382
Total lower low data points
Base Rate
42.55%
Single day bearish probability
Reversal Signal
85.95%
Reversal probability after 3 lower lows
Streak Analysis

Consecutive Lower Low Probabilities

Bearish Continuation

Lower Low Streak Breakdown

1,382 obs.
StreakOccurrencesContinue %Reversal %

Max recorded streak: 16 consecutive lower lows.

Frequency

Streak Distribution

Occurrences

Frequency of each consecutive lower low streak length. Most streaks end within 2–3 days.

Mean-Reversion

Reversal Probability by Streak

Reversal %

Likelihood of upward reversal increases sharply after 3 consecutive lower lows — odds exceed 85%.

Visual Breakdown

Continuation vs Reversal at Each Streak

Range Behaviour

Volatility Insights: Daily Price Range

Key Metrics

Range Stats

112.3
Avg Daily Range (pips)
Wednesday
Most Volatile Day
141.7
Avg Range After 3-Day Lower Low

After 3 consecutive lower lows, average daily range expands by +26.2% vs baseline.

Intraday Volatility

Avg Daily Range by Day of Week

Pip Range

Wednesday offers the widest intraday ranges — key for targeting reversals after extended bearish streaks.

Observations

Key Trading Insights

Insight 1

Single-Day Lower Lows Are Most Common

580 occurrences — reflecting the choppy price action of GBP/NZD and frequent one-off bearish days.

Insight 2

Two-Day Lower Lows Resist Continuation

After 2 lower lows, only 26.93% continue — 73.07% reverse. Momentum quickly fades.

Insight 3 · Key Signal

Three Days Signals Very High Reversal

After 3 lower lows, 85.95% reverse. Only 14.05% continue — powerful mean-reversion trigger.

Insight 4

Extended Downward Streaks Are Rare

Only 7.12% of streaks last 4+ days. Beyond 5 days, reversal exceeds 95%.

Potential Trading Application

Consecutive days of lower daily lows often signal sustained downward momentum but extended streaks show increasing reversal odds. Consider:

Scaling into longs after 3+ lower lows due to high reversal probability
Taking profits on shorts after 2-day lower low runs
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Combine with technical/fundamental analysis.
Data Library

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Consecutive Lower Low Streaks

Frequency and success rate of consecutive daily lower lows forming across tracked history.

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Distribution of how far price travels from the daily open to the session low on bearish days.

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Retracement distribution from daily open to session high on bearish days — key for stop placement.

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Data Hub

GBP/NZD Data Hub

The full GBP/NZD dataset library — streaks, ranges, calendars, and key statistics in one place.

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