THE PROBLEM:
Seasoned traders know the truth...
A well-timed exit is just as important as a strategic entry for generating consistent profits from forex trading – don't let the gurus fool you!
It's a frustrating trap:
Exit too soon, and you leave potential gains behind.
Cling too long, and a winner can quickly become a loser.
Sound familiar?
What if you could take the guesswork out of profit-taking?
THE SOLUTION: Take Profits Using Weekday High/Low Failure Probabilities
We analyzed decades of price data to determine the probability of each Weekdays high or low holding until the weekend.
What we found is pretty eye-opening:
Wednesday and Thursday highs/lows are statistically more likely to hold than other weekdays, often with a minimum 70% probability (odds vary by pair).
This is huge!
By understanding each days holding odds, you can take profits in-line with the historical probabilities, instead of relying on gut feelings or subjective technical analysis. If Wednesday's low has an 76.39% chance of holding until the weekend, that indirectly suggests further gains in the next few days, making it prime time to take profits before the weekend.
Key Benefits To Expect:
1) No More Guesswork: Base your exits on reliable statistical patterns.
2) Avoid Premature Exits: Weekday highs/lows protect your profits.
3) Trade with Confidence: Always exit with the odds on your side.
4) Preserve Your Capital: Eliminate emotional decisions.
5) Boost Your Confidence: Trust the data, not your gut.
Still fuzzy on how this works?
Let's break it down...
You're in the middle of a trade, and starting to wonder...
'Should I exit now, or wait for more profit?'
Does this thought haunt you, too?
Relying on gut feelings in a constantly shifting market is a recipe for second-guessing, missed trading opportunities, and ultimately, self-sabotage. However, by leveraging our Weekday High/Low Failure Data, you can base your profit-taking decisions on rock-solid probabilities, rather than gut feelings.
Example: AUD/CAD (2001 - 2023)
After a bearish close by more than -0.5%, Wednesdays and Thursdays hold a minimum 75.38% and 81.01% chance of maintaining their highs or lows until the weekend.
Bearish Close*
Wednesday High = 75.38% (147/195 events)
Thursday High = 81.01% (145/179 events)
The result?
Wednesdays and Thursdays are critical times to lock-in profits!
Historical data shows both days offer a statistically significant chance of holding their highs or lows until the weekend. By taking partial profits, you're protecting yourself against any retracements or reversals that might occur as risk appetite dwindles towards the end of the week.
It's like the market is whispering,
"Quick, cash in while you can!"
Another Example: GBP/USD (1980 - 2023).
GBP/USD was cruising lower, then BAM!
Better-than-expected economic figures sent the market (and your short trade) into profit. Now you're sitting on a sweet gain...
But when's the right time to cash in?
Should you:
A) Grab your profits now and run?
B) Wait for more price confirmation?
C) Ride the wave and hope for the best?
...Feeling stuck?
The answer might surprise you: None of the above!
Instead, open the GBP/USD Weekday High/Low Break dataset and check the odds for each day's high or low holding until the weekend.
Here's the insight:
If Wednesday closes bullish by +0.5% or more, there's only a 29.82% chance the low will be broken before Friday's close. This hints at a high probability of seeing a retracement or even a reversal of the current rise before the week closes.
It's time to secure some profits before the market takes them back!
Let's see how this plays out...
Well, well, well! ...
Talk about a turn of events!
Despite the unexpected Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) figures shaking things up, the market ultimately respected Wednesday's high and quickly reversed course.
And you?
You smartly locked in profits, just as the market nosedived.
See how Weekday High/Low Break probabilities can act like an early warning system, helping you anticipate and react to potential reversals before they happen.
While conventional wisdom might have also suggested taking profits, checking GBP/USD's Weekday High/Low Failure dataset provided a statistical edge far beyond anything technical or fundamental analysis advises.
Suppose you entered a GBP/USD long trade on Monday (December 13th, 2023).
As Wednesday and Thursday close with high bullish momentum (+0.5%), their Weekday Low Break probabilities (70.18% and 83.53%, respectively) come into play.
What's your next move?
It's time to lock in those profits!
Here's Your Options:
A) Option 1: Secure Partial Profits (Recommended):
This is the conservative approach.
Given the holding probability for Wednesday and Thursday lows, price will probably now retrace until the market closes for the weekend. Locking in profits ensures you capture the gains but also leaves some of your position open for any further down-movement.
ACTION: Close 50% of your buy position to secure half-profits while leaving the remaining portion open for the chance of greater gains.
B) Option 2: Maximize Potential Gains (Riskier)
If you're feeling bold and the market signals are still screaming "bearish," you could close the entire buy position. However, be warned: Taking profits might offer peace of mind, but it also means
missing further gains if the trend continues.
ACTION: Exit your buy position by taking profits at the current market price. Doing this finalizes your profit and removes any chance of reversals snatching profits before Friday.
Wednesdays and Thursdays usually boast the highest holding probabilities, but don't underestimate the impact of Mondays and Tuesdays.
Powerful closes (above 0.5%) can significantly influence the week's price action.
Market Boundaries: Closes above 0.5% can set the week's highs or lows.
High-Probability Setups: Some days can present opportunities with tighter stop-loss.
Closes above 0.5% or even 0.8% on Mondays or Tuesdays can sometimes be like whispers of the future. There's a high chance their highest or lowest prices hold until Friday's close, giving you an
early peek at the weeks high or low.
Talk about market boundaries!
Monday/Tuesday closes can also be the key to unlocking some sweet trades.
Example: EUR/USD (1999 - 2023)
Tuesday's Low displays a 71.00% chance (71/100 Occurences) of holding until the weekend after a bullish close above +0.5%.
Here's the holding probabilities for bullish Tuesday lows:
(Any % Close) - 49.92% (309/619 Events).
(+0.5% Close) - 65.53% (135/206 Events).
(+0.8% Close) - 71.00% (71/100 Events).
The data suggests a clear trend:
The stronger the bullish close on Tuesday (especially, above +0.5%), the higher the probability of the low holding until the weekend.
EUR/USD's chart from April 2nd to 5th, 2024, reveals Tuesday's low remained unbroken throughout the week, providing many valuble insights.
Identifying Potential Entries:
After Tuesday closes bullish (above +0.5%), the newly established low becomes a critical point of interest (POI) for the rest of the week.
Your next task?
Look for buying opportunities around the low.
Tuesday's low has a (71.00%) probability of holding throughout the week, so buying anywhere near the low can provide low-risk long setups with excellent risk-to-reward ratios. Since price is
highly unlikely to break the low, you can place a tight stop-loss right below this level.
The CLOSER your entry to Tuesday's low, the BETTER your risk-to-reward ratio.
Cool, eh?
Setting Stop-Loss Levels:
After entering a long trade during the week, place a stop-loss 3 - 6 pips below Tuesday's low.
This strategic placement acts as a buffer against sudden price spikes while also accounting for the statistical likelihood that price will not retrace significantly, giving your trade more room to breathe and potentially develop into a profitable position.
Remember, consistent profitability often lies in unearthing the unexpected.