Explore NZD/USD's daily high/low range behavior from August 27th, 2001, to January 1st, 2023. Uncover the frequency and probability of daily Highs and Lows forming at specific distances from the Open price, providing invaluable insights for informed trading decisions. These insights can help you set tighter, data-backed stops and assess the remaining potential of each days price movement based on historical patterns.
Set your stop loss 70 pips below the Open price on bullish days.
Given that 80.55% of bullish days form a low within 70 pips of the Open, this offers high chance (80.55%) your stop loss won't be hit, minimizing stop outs unnecessary exits. If you're comfortable with a slightly higher risk, consider setting your stop loss 60 pips below the Open. This provides a balance between protecting your capital and allowing the trade room to breathe.
The higher price rises, the less chance of further up-movement.
71.64% of bullish days form a high within 150 pips of the Open. This means buying after a 150 pip rise gives you only a 28.36% chance of profiting from any further up-movement during the day. If you're already holding a position open or trade intra-day, consider taking partial or full profits once price moves 150 pips or more from the open. Price is far more likely to retrace than continue rising.
Most large bullish price moves tail off and close beneath the daily high.
75.93% of bullish days close within 120 pips of the Open, but only 59.30% of days form a high within 120 pips of the open. So, price rises much further than it closes during bullish days. This data further highlights why taking profits at the peak of large bullish days is so important. It also means fading large rises can provide profitable bullish scalps.
The table above shows 71.64% of all bullish days form a high within 150 pips of the opening price. When price approaches or surpasses the 150 pip mark above the open on a bullish day, it suggests a significant portion of the day's upward potential may have been realized.
This doesn't mean price can't go higher, but the majority (71.64%) of bullish days have historically formed a high below 150 pips.
Key Trading Takeaways:
1) Use the 150 pip level as a potential profit-taking trigger on bullish days (only 28.36% of days close higher!)
2) Be cautious about chasing further gains if a high forms 150 pips from the open.
3) Consider adjusting profit targets or tightening stop-loss orders if price forms a high 150 pips away.
4) Use the distances to help time reversals at key technical points (SD Zones/Psychological Levels).
5) If price moves 110 pips from the open, the high holds around a 50/50 chance of breaking or holding (54.17%)
6) Don't secure profits unless price moves at least 50 pips from the Open: Only 12.44% of days form a high lower.
Set your stop loss 60 pips above the Open price on bearish days.
Given that 80.33% of bearish days form a high within 60 pips of the Open, this offers high chance (80.33%) your stop loss won't be hit, minimizing stop outs unnecessary exits. If you're comfortable with a slightly higher risk, consider setting your stop loss 50 pips above the Open. This provides a balance between protecting your capital and allowing the trade room to breathe.
The lower price falls, the less chance of further down-movement.
67.48% of bearish days form a low within 150 pips of the Open. This means selling after a 150 pip decline gives you only a 32.52% chance of profiting from any further down-movement during the day. If you're holding a position open or trade intra-day, consider taking partial or full profits once price moves 150 pips or more from the open. Price is far more likely to retrace than continue falling.
Most large bearish price moves tail off and close above the daily low.
70.23% of bearish days close within 100 pips of the Open, but only 44.39% of days form a low within 100 pips of the open. So, price falls much further than it actually closes during bearish days. This data further highlights why taking profits at the peak of large bearish days is so important. It also means fading large declines can provide profitable bearish scalps.
The table above shows 67.48% of all bearish days form a Low within 150 pips of the opening price. When price approaches the 150 pip mark below the open on a bearish day, it suggests a significant portion of the day's downward potential may have been realized.
While further downside movement is possible, 67.48% of bearish days historically establish their low within 150 pips of the open.
Key Trading Takeaways:
1) Profit Taking: Consider taking profits on bearish days when price reaches 150 pips below the open.
2) Be wary of chasing further downside once price hits 150 pips below the open.
3) If a low forms 150 pips away from the open, consider tightening your stop-loss or adjusting profit targets.
4) Use these distances to anticipate reversals at key technical levels like S&D zones or psychological numbers.
5) At 100 pips from the open, the odds of price falling further vs forming a low are almost even.
6) Avoid taking profits until price moves at least 50 pips from the open: 12.56% of days form a low higher than 50.
Find answers to your top questions about our NZD/USD dataset below. Need more in-depth help about the charts and datasets presented? Contact us directly – we're always happy to support your trading journey!
"Occurrences" or "Events" simply mean the number of times a specific pattern or event happened in our historical price data.
Examples:
Consecutive Days: If you see "545 occurrences for three consecutive bullish days," it means we found 545 instances where the price went up for three days in a row, then went down on the fourth day.
Specific Patterns: If a candlestick pattern, like a "pin bar," has 720 occurrences, it means that pattern showed up 720 times in our data.
Why it Matters:
The more occurrences we see (the larger the sample size), the more reliable the associated probabilities and insights are, as we have more data to base our conclusions on.
The probability percentages tell you how likely a specific outcome is according to how often it happened in the past.
Think of it like flipping a coin:
If Monday holds a 76% probability of closing bullish, that means the market should close bullish roughly 76 times out of every 100 Mondays, based on historical data. Just like a coin has a 50/50 chance of landing heads or tails, these probabilities help you "weigh" the odds for different market scenarios.
A higher percentage means a greater chance of that particular event happening again.
Our current analysis primarily focuses on the daily timeframe, with each data point representing a single trading day. However, we're continuously expanding our research and are excited to soon offer insights from shorter timeframes, such as 1-hour and 5-minute charts.
Expect even more granular data and potential trading opportunities.
Stay tuned for updates!
Our foundational data is sourced from Barchart Premium, a recognized industry leader in market information, ensuring the accuracy and reliability of our analysis.
We then apply rigorous internal quality checks to further validate our findings.
You'll often notice high occurrence counts for high-probability events in our analysis. This is a testament to the extensive amount of price data we process, underscoring the robustness and reliability of our statistical insights.
Rest assured: Our data-driven conclusions are always backed by thorough analysis.
We update our analysis at the beginning of each year to ensure you're always working with the most relevant market data.
While you might notice frequent updates for high-probability events, adjustments to probabilities require more time. This is because we rely on a substantial sample size to ensure any changes are statistically significant and not just random fluctuations.
Our goal is to provide trustworthy insights that give you a true edge. Sometimes, that means waiting for enough new data to make meaningful updates to those core probabilities.
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