NZD/USD
Bearish Range Distribution
Comprehensive analysis of how far NZD/USD closes below the daily open on bearish sessions. Based on 2,730 bearish days spanning 24 years of price history.
Open–Close Range Distribution
| Range (Pips) | Days | % of Total | Distribution | Rolling % |
|---|
Rolling % = cumulative probability of closing at least that far below the open on a bearish day.
Cumulative Distribution
Range Distribution Histogram
100–200 pip range dominates at 16.95% — core net profit zone for bearish targets.
Key Trading Insights
16.95% in 100–200 Pips
The single highest outcome for net daily close. Ideal take-profit zone for short-term bearish trades.
400–500 Pips Benchmark
Median net close falls in 400–500 pip range. Standard expected bearish move: ~450 pips.
61.8% Within 500 Pips
Over 61% of bearish days close at least 400–500 pips lower. Reliable net downside.
>1500 Pips: 0.51%
Extreme closures beyond 1500 pips are extremely rare. Focus on targets ≤1100 pips for 93% coverage.
Trading Application: Open → Close
Set high-probability end-of-day targets or define expected reward for bearish swing trades.
Target 100–500 pips net profit
Covers >61% of bearish closes. Core zone for conservative take-profit orders.
400–500 pips from open
Historical median net movement; ideal standard take-profit for swing shorts.
Avoid targets >1100 pips
93% of closes are ≤1100 pips. Extreme outliers (0.5%) not reliable for strategy.
Explore Our NZD/USD Datasets
Dive deeper into specific aspects of NZD/USD price action.
Bearish Day Open – Low Range Frequency
Distribution of how far price falls from the daily open to the session low on bearish days.
Bearish Day Open – High Range Frequency
How far price pushes above the daily open before reversing on bearish days — rejection percentile distributions.
Consecutive Lower Low Streaks
Frequency and success rate of consecutive daily lower lows forming across tracked history.
AUD/USD Bearish Open – Close Range
Compare bearish open-close range distributions on AUD/USD — a highly correlated USD pair.
AUD/NZD Bearish Open – Close Range
Compare bearish open-close range distributions on AUD/NZD — the direct EUR strength cross.
NZD/USD Data Hub
The full NZD/USD dataset library — streaks, ranges, calendars, and key statistics in one place.