Open — High Statistics · Bearish Day Analysis

NZD/USD Bearish
Open–High Range

Comprehensive analysis of how far NZD/USD trades above the daily open on bearish sessions. Based on 2,730 bearish days spanning 24 years of price history.

Updated 02 Nov 2025 n = 2,730 24yr dataset
Sample
2,730
Bearish days analysed
Peak Zone
27.22%
10–100 pip range · most common
Avg Range
203.0
Average open → high (pips)
Cumulative
77.14%
Highs within 300 pips of open
Raw Data

Open–High Range Distribution

Range (Pips)Days% of TotalDistributionRolling %

Rolling % = cumulative probability of high forming within that range on a bearish day.

Probability Curve

Open–High Cumulative Distribution

96.17% of bearish days: high within 600 pips
99.79% of bearish days: high within 1100 pips (near‑total coverage)
Frequency Chart

Open–High Range Histogram

2,730 bearish sessions

10–100 pip range dominates at 27.22% — prime zone for initial resistance and stop placement above entry.

Observations

Key Trading Insights

Peak Retracement Zone

10–300 pips = 69.82%

The primary cluster for the day's high is the 10–300 pip range, accounting for 69.82% of all retracements — high-confidence zone for stop-loss placement.

Ultra-High Coverage

99.79% ≤ 1100 pips

A stop-loss placed just beyond 1100 pips offers near-absolute historical coverage for short entries in NZD/USD.

Initial Continuation Bias

34.54% within 100 pips

Price continues bearish immediately (high within 100 pips) on over 34% of days, indicating strong initial directional bias.

75% Coverage Threshold

77.14% ≤ 300 pips

A stop-loss 300 pips from open covers 77% of historic highs, confirming the pair's low-volatility initial pullback.

Stop‑Loss Framework

Trading Application: Open–High Risk Management

Optimize short entries on bearish NZD/USD days using data-driven stop placement above the open.

Conservative Stop

400–500 pips above entry

Covers 93.19% of historical highs — tight but high-probability risk management.

Reactive Entry Zone

10–300 pip cluster (69.82%)

If price enters this zone and rejects, it confirms highest probability high-of-day.

Max Coverage Stop

1100+ pips buffer

Near-total historical coverage (99.79%) — ideal for wide strategies or hedging.

Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Combine with technical/fundamental analysis. NZD sensitivity: RBNZ policy & dairy prices
Raw Dataset

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Full dataset — every trading day since 2000
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Reversal / pattern analysis by streak length
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