Bullish Day Open → Close Statistics

NZD/USD Range
Drift Analysis

Comprehensive analysis of how far price moves from the open on bullish days in NZD/USD. Based on 2,942 bullish sessions.

Updated 01/04/2026 n = 2,942 24yr dataset
Sample
2,942
Total bullish days
Peak Zone
16.49%
100–200 pip range · most common
Avg Range
386.2
Average open → close pips
Cumulative
61.3%
Close within 400 pips of open
Open → Close

Range Distribution (Pips)

Range (Pips)Days% of TotalDistributionRolling %

Rolling % = cumulative probability of closing within that bucket on a bullish day.

Probability Curve

Cumulative Distribution

79.9% of bullish days close within 500 pips
95.1% close within 900 pips · tight drift
Frequency Chart

Range Distribution Histogram

2,942 bullish sessions

100–200 pip range dominates at 16.49% — limited follow-through after initial drift.

Observations

Key Trading Insights

Tight Drift

61% within 400 pips

Over 6 out of 10 bullish days close within 400 pips from open — low noise, clean mean reversion zone.

Peak: 100-200

16.49% — minimal follow-through

Highest density bucket shows NZD/USD tends to stall after initial 100–200 pip rally on bullish days.

98% below 1300

Scalper's heaven

Only 2% of bullish days exceed 1300 pips. Ideal for quick profit-taking & range trading strategies.

Stable minor

0.99% over 1500 pips

Extreme tail risk is negligible — NZD/USD rarely experiences blowout bullish gaps beyond 1500 pips.

Strategy Framework

Trading Application

Lock profits fast. Minimal drift favors scalping and fade strategies.

Take profits

every 200–300 pips

High-density zone at 100–200, second peak at 200–300: scale out incrementally.

Fade moves

past 500 pips

After 500 pips, probability of continuation drops sharply — ideal fade entry on exhaustion.

Hold overnight

tiny gaps

Low tail risk means carrying bullish positions overnight is historically low-risk in NZD/USD.

Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Watch Fonterra auctions & US yields.AUD/NZD correlation: +0.72
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Data Hub

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Tip: Layer multiple datasets for edge — e.g., combine Consecutive Higher High Streaks with Bullish Close Probability Calendar. Upgrade to Pro · unlock all datasets →