Open — Low Statistics · Bullish Day Analysis

NZD/USD Range
Kiwi Pullback Profile

Comprehensive analysis of how far NZD/USD trades below the daily open on bullish sessions. Based on 2,942 bullish days spanning 24 years of price history.

Updated 31 Mar 2026 n = 2,942 24yr dataset
Sample
2,942
Bullish days analysed
Peak Zone
30.63%
10–100 pip range · most common
Avg Range
197.0
Average open → low pips
Cumulative
65.1%
Lows within 200 pips of open
Raw Data

Open–Low Range Distribution

Range (Pips)Days% of TotalDistributionRolling %

Rolling % = cumulative probability of reaching that pip depth on a bullish day.

Probability Curve

Cumulative Distribution

96.0% of bullish days: low within 600 pips
99.1% of bullish days: low within 1000 pips
Frequency Chart

Range Distribution Histogram

2,942 bullish sessions

10–100 pip range dominates at 30.63% — ultra-tight dips, ideal for precision entries.

Observations

Key Trading Insights

Kiwi Shallow

65% within 200 pips

Majority of pullbacks are contained within 200 pips — dairy calm, RBNZ steady.

Peak: 10–100 Pips

30.63% density

Highest concentration zone — ultra-tight dips provide exceptional risk/reward for scalpers and swing traders.

97% Within 700 Pips

Scalper's dream

Only 3% of bullish days exceed 700 pips — allows for extremely efficient risk management.

Rare Blowouts

0.10% over 1500 pips

Extreme tail events are exceptionally rare. Only ~1 in 1,000 bullish sessions sees a blowout dip beyond 1500 pips.

Strategy Framework

Trading Application

Protect longs. Kiwi calm = shallow dips. Structure stops based on statistical density.

Stop Placement

80–180 pips below open

Aligns with 10–100 & 100–200 peak zones. Captures 58%+ of natural retracements.

Trail Stops

Trail under 300 pips on momentum

88% of days stay under 400 pips; tighten trailing stops to lock gains before rare extensions.

Reversion Entry

Buy dips 150+ pips

Historic mean-reversion edge: 150–300 pip dips on bullish days offer favorable risk/reward.

Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Watch Fonterra auctions & US yields. RBNZ/Fed divergence: key driver
Raw Dataset

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Pro Access

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Complete dataset · Percentile tables · CSV export
Full dataset — every trading day since 2000
Percentile distribution: 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, 95th, 99th
Volatility regime breakdown (low/med/high volatility periods)
Reversal / pattern analysis by streak length
One-click CSV export for backtesting and statistical modeling
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