Complete Analysis · 23 Years of Market History

NZD/USD Complete
Statistics & Probabilities

Comprehensive data insights from 5,687 trading days spanning 23 years of market history. Dataset covers 2001–2023 across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes.

Updated 02 Apr 2026 n = 5,687 days 2001–2023
Sample
5,687
Total trading days
Weekly
1,231
Total weeks analysed
Monthly
284
Total months in dataset
Coverage
23
Years of price history
Market Direction

Daily Close Bias

51.6% Bullish
48.3% Bearish
2,935 days 2,752 days
🟢 Bullish Day Structure 2,935 days
Higher High 70.49% 2,069 days
Higher Low 72.50% 2,128 days
Lower High 29.03% 852 days
Lower Low 27.26% 800 days
🔴 Bearish Day Structure 2,752 days
Lower High 70.68% 1,945 days
Lower Low 67.81% 1,866 days
Higher Low 32.01% 881 days
Higher High 28.71% 790 days
23-Year Distribution

Bull vs Bear Day Split

5,687 days
🟢 Bullish closes 51.6%
2,935
days out of 5,687
🔴 Bearish closes 48.3%
2,752
days out of 5,687
📅 Weekly bias 53.8%
Stronger bullish edge on the weekly timeframe — 659 bullish weeks vs 566 bearish weeks.
Dataset Overview

Historical Data Range

Start of range
27 Aug 2001
End of range
11 Aug 2023
Highest close
0.88086
11 Jul 2014
Lowest close
0.40235
24 Sep 2001
Largest gain
+4.31%
28 Oct 2008
Largest loss
−6.76%
24 Oct 2008
Avg daily volume
84,277
Peak volume day
753,566
04 Oct 2012
Statistical Distribution

Volatility Statistics

Daily returns · 5,687 obs.
0.004%
Mean
0.001%
Median
0.57%
Std Dev
0.008%
Std Error
2.61
Kurtosis
+0.11
Skewness
+3.35%
Max Gain
−3.93%
Max Loss

Return distribution: nearly symmetric (+0.11 skew) with moderate fat tails (kurtosis 2.61). NZD/USD shows one of the cleaner return profiles among commodity-linked majors. 7.29% total price change range over 23 years.

Observations

Key Trading Insights

Slight Bullish Bias

51.6% bullish vs 48.3% bearish

NZD/USD shows a consistent but narrow bullish daily close bias across 23 years of data — a useful directional lean for trend-following strategies.

Strong Bullish Momentum

70.49% higher highs on up days

On bullish days, over 7 in 10 sessions print a higher high — the strongest intraday momentum continuation of any pair in the SFD dataset.

Bearish Control

70.68% lower highs on down days

Bearish sessions are equally decisive — sellers cap price on 70.68% of red days, confirming clean market structure on both sides.

Weekly Bullish Edge

53.8% of weeks close bullish

The weekly timeframe amplifies the directional bias — 659 bullish weeks vs 566 bearish, giving swing traders a stronger structural edge.

Tame Fat Tails

Kurtosis of 2.61 — near-normal

With kurtosis well below 3, NZD/USD has some of the most normally distributed returns among major FX pairs — fewer extreme outlier days than NZD/USD or USD/CHF.

Contained Range

±3.9% max daily move over 23 years

Despite the GFC extremes of October 2008, NZD/USD's tails remain tighter than most G10 pairs — max gain of +4.31% and max loss of −6.76% define its outer bounds.

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