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STRATEGY: How To Trade High Probability Days (Above 64%)

CORE: High Probability Days (Above 64%)

We’ve spent years digging through market data, and guess what?

We’ve unearthed a massive list of trading days with a seriously high chance (above 64%!) of closing bullish or bearish every single year: 2081 bullish and bearish days across 22 popular currency pairs,
ensuring you never run out of profitable setups.

No more guesswork…

Just solid stats to guide your decisions:

64% – 70% Chance: 1214 days.
70% – 80% Chance: 710 days.
80% – 90% Chance: 120 days.
90% – 99% Chance: 37 days.

Whether you’re a hands-on day trader or prefer a more relaxed ‘set-and-forget’ approach, our Advanced Entry and Standard Entry systems cater to your individual trading style and lifestyle.

Advanced Entry – (Active Traders)
Standard Entry – (Set-And-Forget)

Both methods leverage high-probability days but cater to your individual trading and lifestyle preferences.

Key Benefits To Expect:

1) Minimized Risk Exposure.
2) Simplified Trading Routine.
3) Streamlined Trade Management.
4) Increased Confidence in Trading Decisions.
5) Enhanced Growth Potential for Smaller Accounts.

Ready to trade with confidence, knowing your decisions are backed by data?

Strategy Overview

  • Skill Level: Beginner

  • Timeframe: Daily/1-Hour

  • Supported Pairs: 22 Pairs

  • Entry Time: 12 AM GMT

  • Exit Time: 12 AM GMT

  • Standard Holding Time: 1-Day

  • Advanced Holding Time: +1-Day

  • Number Of Trades Per Day: 1 – 5

  • Number Of Trades Per Year: (Coming Next Week)

  • Average Risk Per Trade: 30 – 70

  • Average Yearly W/L Ratio: (Coming Next Week)

  • Trading Style: Swing/Day Trading

  • Profit Per Trade: (See Backtesting Stats)

  • Skill Level: Beginner

  • Timeframe: Daily/1-Hour

  • Supported Pairs: 22 Pairs

  • Entry Time: 12 AM GMT

  • Exit Time: 12 AM GMT

  • Standard Holding Time: 1-Day

  • Advanced Holding Time: +1-Day

  • Number Of Trades Per Day: 1 – 5

  • Number Of Trades Per Year: (Coming Next Week)

  • Average Risk Per Trade: 30 – 70

  • Average Yearly W/L Ratio: (Coming Next Week)

  • Trading Style: Swing/Day Trading

  • Profit Per Trade: (See Backtesting Stats)
Backtesting Stats

  • Winning Trades Profit: (Coming Next Week)

  • Winning Trades Profit: (Coming Next Week)

  • Losing Trades Loss: (Coming Next Week)

  • Net Profit: (Coming Next Week)

  • Total Trades: (Coming Next Week)

  • Winning Trades: (Coming Next Week)

  • Losing Trades: (Coming Next Week)

  • Win Percentage: (Coming Next Week)

  • Largest Winning Trade: (Coming Next Week)

  • Largest Losing Trade: (Coming Next Week)

  • Average Winning Trade: (Coming Next Week)

  • Average Losing Trade: (Coming Next Week)

  • Max Drawdown: (Coming Next Week)

  • Winning Trades Profit: (Coming Next Week)

  • Winning Trades Profit: (Coming Next Week)

  • Losing Trades Loss: (Coming Next Week)

  • Net Profit: (Coming Next Week)

  • Total Trades: (Coming Next Week)

  • Winning Trades: (Coming Next Week)

  • Losing Trades: (Coming Next Week)

  • Win Percentage: (Coming Next Week)

  • Largest Winning Trade: (Coming Next Week)

  • Largest Losing Trade: (Coming Next Week)

  • Average Winning Trade: (Coming Next Week)

  • Average Losing Trade: (Coming Next Week)

  • Max Drawdown: (Coming Next Week)

Table of Contents



START HERE: Open the Bullish or Bearish High Prob Days List

Start by opening your pairs High Probability Days pages:

NZD/USD Bullish High Prob Days (64+): 1059
NZD/USD Bearish High Prob Days (64+): 1022

(Pro Tip: Bookmark the links for quick insights!)

The High Probability Days (Bullish/Bearish) lists are your guide to identifying trading opportunities for your chosen pair.

We’ve analyzed years of historical data to pinpoint specific dates that exhibit a statistical bias toward closing bullish or bearish every year. By understanding the behavior of these days, you can find high-probability entry points that align with your trading style and risk management.

Each date includes detailed historical statistics, allowing you to manually verify our findings and gain confidence in the data before making any trades.

What You’ll Find:

1) High-probability trading days for your chosen pair.
2) Detailed historical closing statistics for each day.
3) Essential insights to help you refine your strategies.

Let’s open NZD/USD’s Bullish High Probability Days…

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Don’t forget: Check the “Occurences” dataset for a complete list of historical closes behind each pairs high probability days, including (Open/High/Low/Close, etc) information for transparency.

Each entry contains key data, including:

Currency Pair: Focus on your preferred pairs.
Time & Date: Pinpoint the exact day for alerts or backtesting.
Closing Probability: Gauge the potential strength of the move.
Historical Closes: Check the setup’s past performance for transparency.

To manually confirm the probability figures, check ‘Historical Closes‘.

Example: AUD/USD April 1st (1992 – 2023)

Number of Bullish Closes: 14
Number of Bearish Closes: 5
Total Daily Closes: 19

Bullish Close Probability: 71.43%
Bearish Close Probability: 28.57%

Still a skeptic?

Dig into the data yourself!

Open the ‘AUD/USD Bullish Occurrences‘ dataset to explore the raw data (Open/High/Low/Close, etc) of each historical close behind a high-probability day.

(Example: The table above shows every bullish/bearish instance of April 1st from 1992 – 2023).

Let’s tally up the results:

Number of Bullish Closes: 14
Number of Bearish Closes: 5

Total Daily Closes: 19

Bullish Close Probability: 71.43%
Bearsh Close Probability: 28.57%

See how the numbers match our data?

NEXT STEP: Discovering Setups for the Upcoming Month

To uncover the top trading opportunities for the next month, simply:

1) Filter by Month: Select the desired month from the table’s filter options.
2) Sort by “Order”: Arrange the results in chronological order based on the “Day” column.

All high-probability days should now display in order of calendar appearance, letting you schedule any opportunities for the upcoming week or month.

Got it now?

STANDARD ENTRY: Aud/Usd Sell Trade (March 9 – 2024)

OVERVIEW: Standard Entry simplifies high-probability days by focusing on the daily time-frame, helping you avoid intraday noise and time commitments. It’s perfect for busy traders or those
wanting to streamline their approach without sacrificing potential profits.

Trading Overview:

Holding Time: 24 Hours.
Entry/Exit Time: 12 am GMT.
Trades Per Day: 1 – 5.

Standard Entry Benefits:

1) Designed for those with full-time jobs.
2) 12am entry and exit times every day.
3) Zero screen time during the trading day.
4) Easy-to-follow stop-loss placement.

That’s it – easy as pie!

Let’s run through an example together…

AUD/USD: July 12th (1992 – 2023)

Number of Bearish Closes: 5
Number of Bullish Closes: 18
Total Daily Closes: 23

Probability of Bearish Close: 21.74%
Probability of Bullish Close: 78.26%

According to 31 years of historical data, July 12th holds an impressive 78.26% chance of closing bullish every year on AUD/USD.

Score!

Now, let’s perfect your timing…

NEXT STEP: Timing Your Entry for Optimal Results

Here’s the golden rule:

Enter/Exit All Trades Around 12 AM GMT (Midnight).

Why 12 AM GMT?

Our backtesting and probability calculations use daily open and close data, which starts and ends at Midnight (12 AM GMT). By aligning your entries and exits with this timeframe, you’re replicating the conditions our strategies were proven successful during backtesting.

Key Takeaway: Consistent timing keeps your trades in sync with our data.

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IMPORTANT: We’re actively researching ways to shorten the entry/exit window for traders in the UK, Europe, and beyond. Stay tuned for an upcoming update where we’ll reveal our solutions and how to implement them for more flexible trading.

NEXT STEP: Define Your Stop-Loss Using AUD/USD’s Ideal Range

Forget arbitrary stop-loss levels!

Instead, use our Bullish Ideal Range (Above) to check the probability of bullish day lows exceeding specific pip distances on bullish. Armed with these figures, you can calculate the distance of each day’s bullish low, and set stop orders which accurately reflect historical probabilities.

Still unsure?

Let’s break it down with an example:

In 31 years of AUD/USD price history, only 173 bullish days (out of 4204!) closed with a Low 50 pips from the days open.

Total Bullish Days AUD/USD: 4204 (1999-2023)
Bullish Days With Low 400 Pips Below Open: 173
Days With O/L Range ABOVE 400 Pips: 2.43%
Days With O/L Range BELOW 400 Pips: 93.72%

Historical data reveals a striking trend: On bullish days, the LOW has a 93.72% chance of staying within 40 pips of the Open.

Bet you didn’t know that!

So, what’s the big deal?

By using a 40 pip stop-loss, your chance of being stopped out sits at a miniscule 6.28%!

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IMPORTANT: Market volatility fluctuates over time, affecting the High/Low ranges for different currencies. Before setting a stop-loss using the Ideal Range Dataset strategy, always check the specific figures and probabilities for your chosen currency pair.

FINALLY: Time to Relax.

After entering, hands off!

Resist the urge to constantly monitor or tinker with your trade.

Close your trading platform, disconnect from the charts, and enjoy your day – anything that helps you detach from the market’s minute-by-minute fluctuations. Let the trade run until Midnight (12 AM GMT) the following day (July 13th – 24 Hours), and then close to secure your winnings.

Your Zen Trading Plan:

1) Enter your trade around 12 AM GMT.
2) Set your stop-loss using the ideal range.
3) Close your charts and go for tea and biscuits!
4) Reclaim your peace of mind and let the market do its thing.
5) Open your charts at Midnight (12 AM GMT) to close the trade.

It’s that simple!

Remember: By stepping back, you’re not just reducing stress—you’re also allowing the probabilities chance to work in your favor.

ADVANCED ENTRY: Aud/Jpy Buy Trade (May 9 – 2024)

OVERVIEW: The Advanced Entry system is designed for experienced traders seeking tighter entries, lower risk, and the potential for amplified profits.

While the Standard Entry offers a user-friendly approach, the Advanced Entry caters to active traders who crave a more hands-on experience. By strategically entering high-probability days using the lower timeframes (1-hour & 30-minute) and employing tighter stop-losses, you can simultaneously decrease risk and boost your potential profit on each trade.

This requires more active market monitoring and timing using our proprietary “WAVE” system for pinpointing entry locations.

WAVE System Breakdown:

1) Watch for reversal signs during the first few trading sessions.
2) Anticipate reversals using nearby technical POIs (points of interest).
3) Verify the reversal after a medium/high impact news announcement.
4) Enter only after seeing a significant candle aligned with the day.

Sound interesting?

(Wait till you see it in action!)

Don’t Forget: The WAVE system also works seamlessly alongside your existing technical strategies, not just the data-driven insights on our site.

You can apply its structured approach to any setup/trading style.

Top Benefits:

1. Perfect for active traders who stay engaged with the market.
2. Better entry price increases potential for higher profits.
3. Can incorporate technical analysis into your strategy.
4. Tighter entry and lower overall risk per trade.

Now, let’s break down the trading plan:

1. Start by finding a high-probability day in our dataset.
2. Enter on the 1-hour chart using our “WAVE” system.
3. Set a stop-loss based on the Ideal Range.
4. Exit at 12 am GMT the following day.

Coming Up:

We’ll explain how to use our “WAVE” system to identify and time entry points on the 1-hour timeframe.

NEXT STEP: Timing Your Entry Using WAVE System

May 9th holds a 68.75% probability of closing bullish every year on AUD/JPY.

Number of Bearish Closes: 5
Number of Bullish Closes: 11
Total Daily Closes: 16

Probability of Bullish Close: 68.75%
Probability of Bearish Close: 31.25%

To time the reversal, let’s use the WAVE entry:

Watch: Look for wicks/reversal signs during the first few trading sessions.
Anticipate: Identify any nearby technical analysis POIs (points of interest).
Verify: Check for a reversal after a medium/high-impact news announcement.
Enter: Look for a significant large-range candle aligned with the day to enter.

Simple enough, eh?

Let’s zoom in to the 1-hour timeframe for a better look…

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IMPORTANT: Seek confirmation before entering on lower timeframes. While candlestick patterns, indicators, and other concepts can help pinpoint potential turning points, wait for a significant directional candlestick to align with the days expected closing direction before entering.

May 9th opens with a short rise, following the bearish price movement from the day before.

Prices begin falling during the Austrialian session (12am – 7am GMT), but find support around the 102.250 round number during the Tokyo trading session. Suddenly – boom! – negative JPY news hits, kicking off a rise which ultimately leads to May 9th closing bullish.

Coincidence?

Think again!

Our WAVE system dissects it perfectly:

1) Reversals often happen during the first session (Watch)
2) The nearby presence of the 102.250 round number (Anticipate)
3) High-impact news events often act as catalysts for reversals (Verify)
4) The appearance of a large bullish candlestick initiates the move (Enter)

WAVE offers a proven, repeatable framework for identifying the highest-probability reversal setups using the lower timeframes.

Use these steps for entering Advanced Entry trades.

Another example:

January 23rd initially opens bearish as market liquidity dries up after midnight.

Price continues falling until the European session begins at 6 AM GMT, and that’s when the fireworks start! European traders pile back into the market, causing price to suddenly jump higher, before bearish price action causes price to reverse again and form multiple bearish entry signals.

What triggered this unexpected move?

Let’s break it down with the WAVE system:

1) Reversals often unfold during the first two major trading sessions of the day (Watch).
2) The 1.79000 level acted as resistance, boosting bearish momentum (Anticipate).
3) Euro figures provided bearish confirmation, fueling the down-move (Verify).
4) Bearish engulfing patterns initated the reversal from demand (Entry).

That’s the power of WAVE!

It keeps you focused on the most important market factors, even when the broader price action and technical analysis appear confusing.

NEXT STEP: Stop-Loss Placement (Ideal Range)

Advanced Entry allows for tighter stop placement compared to the Standard Entry.

Lower timeframes (e.g., 1-hour or 30-minute charts) offer precise entries closer to the day’s high or low, minimizing stop distance and increasing your potential gains.

It’s a win-win!

Placement Strategy:

1) Find the Bullish Ideal Range of your pair (AUD/JPY).
2) Place the initial stop-loss at the Ideal Range distance.
3) Gradually tighten the stop-loss as price moves in your favor.

Let’s check an example…

First Things First: Secure Your Trade!

Use the Ideal Range dataset to set an initial wide stop loss.

(Psst… check out the data right here)

Checking the Ideal Range for AUD/JPY reveals 91.26% of all bullish days close with an Open – Low range below 50 pips:

Dataset Range: 21 Years
Total Bullish Days: 3032

Bullish Days With O/L Range ABOVE 500 Pips: 378
Bullish Days With O/L Range BELOW 500 Pips: 2654

Probability of Bullish Day Closing Below 500 Pips: 90.04%!

(This is where it gets interesting!)

Your Next Mission: Calculate the Stop-Loss

1) Consult the Ideal Range dataset to reveal the Ideal Range for your chosen pair.
2) Calculate how many pips your entry price is from the 50-pip mark on your chart.
3) Place a stop-loss 3-6-pips beyond the 50-pip Ideal Range mark for protection.

Adjusting Your Stop Loss as the Trade Progresses

Hands Off!

Don’t tinker with your day trades.

It might feel counterintuitive, but messing with your trades disrupts and undermines the probabilities behind our strategy. Tweaking your stop-loss orders, prematurely exiting positions, or chasing quick profits introduces uncertainty and can actually harm your results.

Why trust the process?

Our strategy’s strength lies in its consistent parameters:

Entry Time/Price: 12 AM (or lower timeframe).
Exit Time/Price: 12 AM the following day.
Stop-Loss: Ideal range distance.

…and that’s it!

Trust the process, stick to the plan, and let the market do its thing.

Think long-term, not short-term!

🛎️ PRO TIP: High-Prob Trades Are Time-Sensitive!

Want the best chance of success with our strategy?

Timing is EVERYTHING.

Here’s the Key Rule:

Aim to Enter/Exit at Midnight (12 AM GMT – 12 AM GMT).

Our backtesting results use daily Open and Close prices, which always run from Midnight (12 AM – 12 AM) GMT. By aligning your trades with this window, you’ll be in sync with the data-driven insights that underpin our strategy, increasing your chances of success.

Overnight Holds: Proceed with Caution!

Overnight markets can be unpredictable, introducing new variables and risks that may not align with your initial analysis or probabilities.

If your chosen pairs Daily Close Probability Dataset (All Days) indicates a minimum 64% chance that the following day will close in the same direction as your current trade, holding the position overnight might be worth considering.

Just remember: Check the next days closing probability BEFORE holding.

The Daily Close Probability (All Days) Dataset reveals the likelihood of all trading dates closing bullish or bearish for your chosen currency pair.

How to Harness the Dataset:

1) Find Your Month: Type the current month into the search box.
2) Analyze the Odds: Examine the probabilities for the upcoming days.
3) Align Your Trades: Hold overnight if a continuation seems likely.

Notice a high probability of continuation for the next day?

Seize the opportunity!

If the dataset indicates a strong likelihood of another similar close the following day, consider holding overnight to capture additional gains. Remember to secure profits & tighten stops as the day goes on to manage risk.

(Important: Continuation days should hold minimum 70% closing odds)

Reversal looking likely?

If the data indicates a high probability of a reversal, it’s wise to close your position before the end of the day (around 12 AM GMT) to avoid potential losses.

Don’t change the recipe if you want consistent results!

🚨PRO TIP: Boost Win Rate With Confirmation

Just because a traffic light turns green doesn’t mean you blindly accelerate across the road without a care in the world, right?

You check for oncoming traffic first!

It’s the same entering using lower timeframes:

You NEED confirmation before pulling the trigger.

Enter too early… you might get in at a worse price.
Wait for confirmation… you increase the odds of a successful trade.

So, what’s your trading “green light”?

Wait for a decisive, large candlestick to align with your high-probability day.

Example: February 5th GBP/USD (76.19% Bearish Close)

Imagine you’ve followed our WAVE system to determine a possible sell entry. Eyes glued to the price action, suddenly a massive red candlestick forms.

Boom!

That’s your confirmation, my friend!

“But what if I miss the move?“
“What if the market takes off without me?“

Feeling FOMO creeping in?

Relax, it’s nothing to fear…

Even without immediate confirmation, you can still profit from the day’s expected bullish close:

Simply enter your trade on any subsequent candlestick and place your stop-loss a few pips above the pair’s Ideal Range. Placing your stop here ensures it won’t be prematurely taken out by minor dips and fluctuations, and allows you to capture the bulk of the day’s movement.

(Note: Any candlestick can now technically serve as a valid entry, but waiting for a large, decisive candlestick to confirm the bearish momentum still offers an advantage)