Bullish Day Open – High Statistics

USD/CAD Range
Open → High

Comprehensive analysis of how far USD/CAD trades above the daily open on bullish sessions. Based on 5,474 bullish days spanning 24 years.

Updated 31 Mar 2026, 15:55 n = 5,474 24yr dataset
Sample
5,474
Bullish days analysed
Peak Zone
14.45%
400–500 pip range · most common
Avg Range
630.3
Average open → high pips
Cumulative
52.9%
Highs within 500 pips of open
Raw Data

Open–High Range Distribution

Range (Pips)Days% of TotalDistributionRolling %

Rolling % = cumulative probability of reaching at least that pip bucket on a bullish day.

Probability Curve

Cumulative Distribution

81.3% of bullish days: high within 1000 pips
92.6% of bullish days: high within 1500 pips
Frequency Chart

Range Distribution Histogram

5,474 bullish sessions

400–500 pip range dominates at 14.45% — prime upside momentum zone for USD/CAD.

Observations

Key Trading Insights

Loonie Surge

41% exceed 400 pips — oil rally!

Over 41% of bullish days extend 400+ pips from open, driven by crude oil correlation (WTI ~ -0.71).

Peak: 400-500

14.45% — momentum zone

Highest density bucket (400-500 pips). Ideal for trailing stops or partial profit targets.

93%+ Above 1400

Trend-friendly

Over 92.6% of bullish days stay within 1500 pips. Strong trending environment without excessive tail risk.

Controlled Vol

4.13% over 1500 pips

Only 4.13% exceed 1500 pips — rare macro spikes, mostly linked to Fed/BoC divergence.

Strategy Framework

Trading Application

Ride crude rallies and US macro strength. USD/CAD bullish days offer steady upside.

Target Zones

600–1200 pips

Over 50% of bullish days hit this band. Align with crude breakouts.

Scale Out

500 & 900 pips

Partial profit at 500 pips (first high-density zone) and 900 pips before tail risk increases.

Ride Crude Rallies

WTI + USD/CAD correlation

Enter on WTI breakouts; USD/CAD typically follows with 300–700 pip extensions.

Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Watch WTI crude & US yields.WTI correlation: -0.71 (significant)
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