USD/CAD Bearish Range
Downside Distribution
Comprehensive analysis of how far USD/CAD trades below the daily open on bearish sessions. Based on 5,567 bearish days spanning decades of price history.
Open–Low Range Distribution (Pips)
| Range (Pips) | Days | % of Total | Distribution | Rolling % |
|---|
Rolling % = cumulative probability of reaching at least that pip bucket on a bearish day.
Cumulative Distribution (Open → Low)
Range Distribution Histogram
300–400 pip range dominates at 14.50% — key downside target zone for short entries.
Key Trading Insights
200–500 pips = 39.5%
Nearly 40% of bearish days drop 200–500 pips below open — high-probability take-profit zone for swing shorts.
55.7% exceed 500 pips
Majority of bearish days extend beyond 500 pips, reflecting CAD strength bursts and oil volatility.
3.75% exceed 1500 pips
Massive outlier moves occur ~1 in 27 bearish days — trail stops to capture black swan extensions.
900 pips covers 83.5%
Only 16% of bearish days exceed 900 pips — ideal level for scaling out or trailing stops.
Trading Target Application
Realistic take-profit & stop levels based on historical downside distributions.
300–600 pips below open
Covers ~39% of all bearish moves — high-probability take-profit area.
1000+ pips for top 10%
Only 9.66% of days extend beyond 1000 pips — ideal for runners.
After 900 pips, protect gains
83.5% of moves finish within 900 pips; beyond that, tighten stops to capture 3.75% monsters.
Explore Our USD/CAD Datasets
Dive deeper into specific aspects of USD/CAD price action.
Bearish Day Open – Close Range Frequency
How far from the daily open price closes on bearish days — range percentile distributions.
Bearish Day Open – High Range Frequency
How far price pushes above the daily open before reversing on bearish days — rejection percentile distributions.
Consecutive Lower Low Streaks
Frequency and success rate of consecutive daily lower lows forming across tracked history.
USD/CHF Bearish Open – Low Range
Compare bearish open-low extension distributions on USD/CHF — a highly correlated USD pair.
USD/JPY Bearish Open – Low Range
Compare bearish open-low extension distributions on USD/JPY — the direct EUR strength cross.
USD/CAD Data Hub
The full USD/CAD dataset library — streaks, ranges, calendars, and key statistics in one place.