Usd/Jpy Daily Close Probability (All Days)

Uncategorized
February 29, 2024

USD/JPY: Daily Close Probability (%)

The table below provides a detailed breakdown of the historical closing probability for all trading days on USD/JPY, organized by month and day. The data also includes the number of times each day closed bullish or bearish, validating our analysis and probability figures.

Use these insights to help you time your trades, align your lower timeframe strategies with each days closing odds, and boost your overall success trading USD/JPY.

Dataset Overview

Average Trading Volume: 68980
Start Of Data Range: 03 June, 1980
End Of Data Range: 01 January, 2023
Highest Closing Price: 05 March 1985 (2.9222)
Lowest Closing Price: 09 August 2011 (0.72068)
Day With Largest Gain: 06 September 2011 (8.73%)
Day With Largest Loss: 15 January 2015 (-21.52%)
Day With Highest Volume: 04 October 2012 (1,455287)
Day With Lowest Volume: 01 January 2018 (5289)

Average Trading Volume: 68980
Start Of Data Range: 03 June, 1980
End Of Data Range: 01 January, 2023
Highest Closing Price: 05 March 1985 (2.9222)
Lowest Closing Price: 09 August 2011 (0.72068)
Day With Largest Gain: 06 September 2011 (8.73%)
Day With Largest Loss: 15 January 2015 (-21.52%)
Day With Highest Volume: 04 October 2012 (1,455287)
Day With Lowest Volume: 01 January 2018 (5289)

Key Links/Files

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DON’T FORGET: For a comprehensive understanding of the figures behind our high-probability days, explore our “Occurrences” datasets. We’ve compiled the dates and price information (Open, High, Low, Close) for every bullish and bearish occurrence contributing to a high-probability day, ensuring complete transparency in our analysis and probabilities.

Month	Day	Closed Bullish	Closed Bearish	Total	Bullish Day Probability	Bearish Day Probability
January	1	26	2	28	92.86%	7.14%
January	2	16	13	29	55.17%	44.83%
January	3	16	13	29	55.17%	44.83%
January	4	19	12	31	61.29%	38.71%
January	5	13	14	27	48.15%	51.85%
January	6	15	13	28	53.57%	46.43%
January	7	17	11	28	60.71%	39.29%
January	8	18	12	30	60.00%	40.00%
January	9	15	16	31	48.39%	51.61%
January	10	12	16	28	42.86%	57.14%
January	11	15	13	28	53.57%	46.43%
January	12	11	20	31	35.48%	64.52%
January	13	13	15	28	46.43%	53.57%
January	14	11	17	28	39.29%	60.71%
January	15	13	15	28	46.43%	53.57%
January	16	16	12	28	57.14%	42.86%
January	17	15	13	28	53.57%	46.43%
January	18	15	13	28	53.57%	46.43%
January	19	11	15	26	42.31%	57.69%
January	20	14	14	28	50.00%	50.00%
January	21	12	19	31	38.71%	61.29%
January	22	17	11	28	60.71%	39.29%
January	23	13	14	27	48.15%	51.85%
January	24	15	13	28	53.57%	46.43%
January	25	10	18	28	35.71%	64.29%
January	26	16	15	31	51.61%	48.39%
January	27	17	11	28	60.71%	39.29%
January	28	16	11	27	59.26%	40.74%
January	29	16	12	28	57.14%	42.86%
January	30	10	17	27	37.04%	62.96%
January	31	12	16	28	42.86%	57.14%
Febuary	1	14	12	26	53.85%	46.15%
Febuary	2	13	13	26	50.00%	50.00%
Febuary	3	18	10	28	64.29%	35.71%
Febuary	4	12	16	28	42.86%	57.14%
Febuary	5	10	12	22	45.45%	54.55%
Febuary	6	16	11	27	59.26%	40.74%
Febuary	7	18	10	28	64.29%	35.71%
Febuary	8	13	15	28	46.43%	53.57%
Febuary	9	11	20	31	35.48%	64.52%
Febuary	10	16	12	28	57.14%	42.86%
Febuary	11	15	11	26	57.69%	42.31%
Febuary	12	16	12	28	57.14%	42.86%
Febuary	13	13	15	28	46.43%	53.57%
Febuary	14	6	21	27	22.22%	77.78%
Febuary	15	15	13	28	73.68%	26.32%
Febuary	16	12	14	26	46.15%	53.85%
Febuary	17	14	14	28	50.00%	50.00%
Febuary	18	18	10	28	64.29%	35.71%
Febuary	19	15	13	28	53.57%	46.43%
Febuary	20	18	10	28	64.29%	35.71%
Febuary	21	19	8	27	70.37%	29.63%
Febuary	22	9	19	28	32.14%	67.86%
Febuary	23	9	16	25	36.00%	64.00%
Febuary	24	15	13	28	53.57%	46.43%
Febuary	25	9	18	27	33.33%	66.67%
Febuary	26	14	14	28	50.00%	50.00%
Febuary	27	11	17	28	39.29%	60.71%
Febuary	28	14	14	28	50.00%	50.00%
Febuary	29	3	3	6	50.00%	50.00%
March	1	16	11	27	59.26%	40.74%
March	2	17	11	28	60.71%	39.29%
March	3	11	17	28	39.29%	60.71%
March	4	17	10	27	62.96%	37.04%
March	5	16	11	27	59.26%	40.74%
March	6	13	14	27	48.15%	51.85%
March	7	13	15	28	46.43%	53.57%
March	8	19	9	28	67.86%	32.14%
March	9	17	11	28	60.71%	39.29%
March	10	12	16	28	42.86%	57.14%
March	11	14	13	27	51.85%	48.15%
March	12	15	12	27	55.56%	44.44%
March	13	14	14	28	50.00%	50.00%
March	14	12	15	27	44.44%	55.56%
March	15	11	17	28	39.29%	60.71%
March	16	10	18	28	35.71%	64.29%
March	17	13	15	28	46.43%	53.57%
March	18	17	11	28	60.71%	39.29%
March	19	16	11	27	59.26%	40.74%
March	20	15	13	28	53.57%	46.43%
March	21	15	12	27	55.56%	44.44%
March	22	14	14	28	50.00%	50.00%
March	23	11	17	28	39.29%	60.71%
March	24	18	10	28	64.29%	35.71%
March	25	14	14	28	50.00%	50.00%
March	26	12	15	27	44.44%	55.56%
March	27	13	15	28	46.43%	53.57%
March	28	15	13	28	53.57%	46.43%
March	29	13	14	27	48.15%	51.85%
March	30	14	14	28	50.00%	50.00%
March	31	12	16	28	42.86%	57.14%
April	1	15	13	28	53.57%	46.43%
April	2	16	10	26	61.54%	38.46%
April	3	12	15	27	44.44%	55.56%
April	4	13	14	27	48.15%	51.85%
April	5	13	15	28	46.43%	53.57%
April	6	17	11	28	60.71%	39.29%
April	7	14	14	28	50.00%	50.00%
April	8	13	15	28	46.43%	53.57%
April	9	12	15	27	44.44%	55.56%
April	10	12	15	27	44.44%	55.56%
April	11	16	12	28	57.14%	42.86%
April	12	15	13	28	53.57%	46.43%
April	13	13	15	28	46.43%	53.57%
April	14	15	13	28	53.57%	46.43%
April	15	11	17	28	39.29%	60.71%
April	16	11	15	26	42.31%	57.69%
April	17	15	12	27	55.56%	44.44%
April	18	11	17	28	39.29%	60.71%
April	19	16	12	28	57.14%	42.86%
April	20	17	9	26	65.38%	34.62%
April	21	15	13	28	53.57%	46.43%
April	22	12	16	28	42.86%	57.14%
April	23	11	16	27	40.74%	59.26%
April	24	14	14	28	50.00%	50.00%
April	25	12	16	28	42.86%	57.14%
April	26	14	14	28	50.00%	50.00%
April	27	14	13	27	51.85%	48.15%
April	28	17	11	28	60.71%	39.29%
April	29	14	14	28	50.00%	50.00%
April	30	15	12	27	55.56%	44.44%
May	1	15	13	28	53.57%	46.43%
May	2	14	13	27	51.85%	48.15%
May	3	17	11	28	60.71%	39.29%
May	4	8	20	28	28.57%	71.43%
May	5	13	15	28	46.43%	53.57%
May	6	10	18	28	35.71%	64.29%
May	7	16	11	27	59.26%	40.74%
May	8	15	11	26	57.69%	42.31%
May	9	15	13	28	53.57%	46.43%
May	10	18	9	27	66.67%	33.33%
May	11	13	15	28	46.43%	53.57%
May	12	13	14	27	48.15%	51.85%
May	13	15	13	28	53.57%	46.43%
May	14	14	13	27	51.85%	48.15%
May	15	14	14	28	50.00%	50.00%
May	16	15	13	28	53.57%	46.43%
May	17	20	8	28	71.43%	28.57%
May	18	14	14	28	50.00%	50.00%
May	19	13	15	28	46.43%	53.57%
May	20	11	17	28	39.29%	60.71%
May	21	17	10	27	62.96%	37.04%
May	22	20	8	28	71.43%	28.57%
May	23	9	19	28	32.14%	67.86%
May	24	14	14	28	50.00%	50.00%
May	25	18	10	28	64.29%	35.71%
May	26	14	13	27	51.85%	48.15%
May	27	16	12	28	57.14%	42.86%
May	28	13	13	26	50.00%	50.00%
May	29	15	13	28	53.57%	46.43%
May	30	15	12	27	55.56%	44.44%
May	31	15	12	27	55.56%	44.44%
June	1	15	12	27	55.56%	44.44%
June	2	12	16	28	42.86%	57.14%
June	3	17	11	28	60.71%	39.29%
June	4	18	8	26	69.23%	30.77%
June	5	16	11	27	59.26%	40.74%
June	6	12	16	28	42.86%	57.14%
June	7	12	16	28	42.86%	57.14%
June	8	15	13	28	53.57%	46.43%
June	9	16	12	28	57.14%	42.86%
June	10	11	16	27	40.74%	59.26%
June	11	15	12	27	55.56%	44.44%
June	12	17	11	28	60.71%	39.29%
June	13	13	15	28	46.43%	53.57%
June	14	11	17	28	39.29%	60.71%
June	15	13	15	28	46.43%	53.57%
June	16	10	16	26	38.46%	61.54%
June	17	11	17	28	39.29%	60.71%
June	18	13	14	27	48.15%	51.85%
June	19	12	14	26	46.15%	53.85%
June	20	16	12	28	57.14%	42.86%
June	21	17	11	28	60.71%	39.29%
June	22	17	11	28	60.71%	39.29%
June	23	12	14	26	46.15%	53.85%
June	24	11	17	28	39.29%	60.71%
June	25	10	17	27	37.04%	62.96%
June	26	14	14	28	50.00%	50.00%
June	27	16	12	28	57.14%	42.86%
June	28	19	9	28	67.86%	32.14%
June	29	13	15	28	46.43%	53.57%
June	30	15	12	27	55.56%	44.44%
July	1	16	12	28	57.14%	42.86%
July	2	12	15	27	44.44%	55.56%
July	3	14	12	26	53.85%	46.15%
July	4	14	13	27	51.85%	48.15%
July	5	18	10	28	64.29%	35.71%
July	6	12	16	28	42.86%	57.14%
July	7	13	15	28	46.43%	53.57%
July	8	16	12	28	57.14%	42.86%
July	9	13	14	27	48.15%	51.85%
July	10	12	16	28	42.86%	57.14%
July	11	13	14	27	48.15%	51.85%
July	12	10	18	28	35.71%	64.29%
July	13	16	12	28	57.14%	42.86%
July	14	15	13	28	53.57%	46.43%
July	15	13	15	28	46.43%	53.57%
July	16	12	14	26	46.15%	53.85%
July	17	15	13	28	53.57%	46.43%
July	18	12	16	28	42.86%	57.14%
July	19	14	14	28	50.00%	50.00%
July	20	15	13	28	53.57%	46.43%
July	21	11	16	27	40.74%	59.26%
July	22	17	11	28	60.71%	39.29%
July	23	17	10	27	62.96%	37.04%
July	24	10	18	28	35.71%	64.29%
July	25	16	12	28	57.14%	42.86%
July	26	13	15	28	46.43%	53.57%
July	27	13	15	28	46.43%	53.57%
July	28	12	16	28	42.86%	57.14%
July	29	17	11	28	60.71%	39.29%
July	30	14	13	27	51.85%	48.15%
July	31	11	17	28	39.29%	60.71%
August	1	12	16	28	42.86%	57.14%
August	2	11	17	28	39.29%	60.71%
August	3	12	15	27	44.44%	55.56%
August	4	20	8	28	71.43%	28.57%
August	5	14	13	27	51.85%	48.15%
August	6	16	11	27	59.26%	40.74%
August	7	13	15	28	46.43%	53.57%
August	8	13	15	28	46.43%	53.57%
August	9	12	16	28	42.86%	57.14%
August	10	13	15	28	46.43%	53.57%
August	11	12	16	28	42.86%	57.14%
August	12	13	15	28	46.43%	53.57%
August	13	13	14	27	48.15%	51.85%
August	14	12	15	27	44.44%	55.56%
August	15	14	13	27	51.85%	48.15%
August	16	13	12	25	52.00%	48.00%
August	17	12	15	27	44.44%	55.56%
August	18	11	16	27	40.74%	59.26%
August	19	14	14	28	50.00%	50.00%
August	20	11	16	27	40.74%	59.26%
August	21	13	14	27	48.15%	51.85%
August	22	16	10	26	61.54%	38.46%
August	23	9	18	27	33.33%	66.67%
August	24	16	11	27	59.26%	40.74%
August	25	19	8	27	70.37%	29.63%
August	26	17	10	27	62.96%	37.04%
August	27	9	18	27	33.33%	66.67%
August	28	15	12	27	55.56%	44.44%
August	29	16	11	27	59.26%	40.74%
August	30	17	10	27	62.96%	37.04%
August	31	14	13	27	51.85%	48.15%
September	1	10	17	27	37.04%	62.96%
September	2	15	13	28	53.57%	46.43%
September	3	12	15	27	44.44%	55.56%
September	4	16	9	25	64.00%	36.00%
September	5	18	9	27	66.67%	33.33%
September	6	13	14	27	48.15%	51.85%
September	7	11	16	27	40.74%	59.26%
September	8	18	9	27	66.67%	33.33%
September	9	13	15	28	46.43%	53.57%
September	10	20	7	27	74.07%	25.93%
September	11	17	10	27	62.96%	37.04%
September	12	15	12	27	55.56%	44.44%
September	13	13	14	27	48.15%	51.85%
September	14	11	16	27	40.74%	59.26%
September	15	14	12	26	53.85%	46.15%
September	16	16	12	28	57.14%	42.86%
September	17	13	13	26	50.00%	50.00%
September	18	15	12	27	55.56%	44.44%
September	19	11	15	26	42.31%	57.69%
September	20	10	17	27	37.04%	62.96%
September	21	15	12	27	55.56%	44.44%
September	22	14	13	27	51.85%	48.15%
September	23	16	12	28	57.14%	42.86%
September	24	12	15	27	44.44%	55.56%
September	25	16	11	27	59.26%	40.74%
September	26	16	10	26	61.54%	38.46%
September	27	18	9	27	66.67%	33.33%
September	28	13	14	27	48.15%	51.85%
September	29	15	12	27	55.56%	44.44%
September	30	18	10	28	64.29%	35.71%
October	1	9	18	27	33.33%	66.67%
October	2	15	12	27	55.56%	44.44%
October	3	15	12	27	55.56%	44.44%
October	4	13	14	27	48.15%	51.85%
October	5	15	12	27	55.56%	44.44%
October	6	10	16	26	38.46%	61.54%
October	7	12	16	28	42.86%	57.14%
October	8	11	16	27	40.74%	59.26%
October	9	13	14	27	48.15%	51.85%
October	10	14	13	27	51.85%	48.15%
October	11	14	12	26	53.85%	46.15%
October	12	11	16	27	40.74%	59.26%
October	13	14	13	27	51.85%	48.15%
October	14	15	13	28	53.57%	46.43%
October	15	11	16	27	40.74%	59.26%
October	16	15	11	26	57.69%	42.31%
October	17	12	15	27	44.44%	55.56%
October	18	13	14	27	48.15%	51.85%
October	19	14	13	27	51.85%	48.15%
October	20	18	9	27	66.67%	33.33%
October	21	16	12	28	57.14%	42.86%
October	22	16	11	27	59.26%	40.74%
October	23	16	11	27	59.26%	40.74%
October	24	9	18	27	33.33%	66.67%
October	25	14	12	26	53.85%	46.15%
October	26	11	8	19	57.89%	42.11%
October	27	8	19	27	29.63%	70.37%
October	28	11	17	28	39.29%	60.71%
October	29	17	10	27	62.96%	37.04%
October	30	15	12	27	55.56%	44.44%
October	31	18	9	27	66.67%	33.33%
November	1	12	14	26	46.15%	53.85%
November	2	13	14	27	48.15%	51.85%
November	3	19	8	27	70.37%	29.63%
November	4	16	11	27	59.26%	40.74%
November	5	14	13	27	51.85%	48.15%
November	6	15	12	27	55.56%	44.44%
November	7	10	17	27	37.04%	62.96%
November	8	11	16	27	40.74%	59.26%
November	9	15	12	27	55.56%	44.44%
November	10	13	13	26	50.00%	50.00%
November	11	9	19	28	32.14%	67.86%
November	12	13	13	26	50.00%	50.00%
November	13	16	11	27	59.26%	40.74%
November	14	12	14	26	46.15%	53.85%
November	15	17	10	27	62.96%	37.04%
November	16	19	8	27	70.37%	29.63%
November	17	11	16	27	40.74%	59.26%
November	18	19	9	28	67.86%	32.14%
November	19	13	14	27	48.15%	51.85%
November	20	16	11	27	59.26%	40.74%
November	21	13	14	27	48.15%	51.85%
November	22	11	16	27	40.74%	59.26%
November	23	16	11	27	59.26%	40.74%
November	24	14	13	27	51.85%	48.15%
November	25	15	13	28	53.57%	46.43%
November	26	12	15	27	44.44%	55.56%
November	27	12	15	27	44.44%	55.56%
November	28	12	13	25	48.00%	52.00%
November	29	18	9	27	66.67%	33.33%
November	30	11	16	27	40.74%	59.26%
December	1	12	15	27	44.44%	55.56%
December	2	17	11	28	60.71%	39.29%
December	3	8	19	27	29.63%	70.37%
December	4	14	13	27	51.85%	48.15%
December	5	16	11	27	59.26%	40.74%
December	6	14	14	28	50.00%	50.00%
December	7	15	12	27	55.56%	44.44%
December	8	14	12	26	53.85%	46.15%
December	9	11	17	28	39.29%	60.71%
December	10	16	12	28	57.14%	42.86%
December	11	13	15	28	46.43%	53.57%
December	12	16	12	28	57.14%	42.86%
December	13	17	10	27	62.96%	37.04%
December	14	13	15	28	46.43%	53.57%
December	15	18	9	27	66.67%	33.33%
December	16	8	20	28	28.57%	71.43%
December	17	6	22	28	21.43%	78.57%
December	18	17	11	28	60.71%	39.29%
December	19	16	10	26	61.54%	38.46%
December	20	13	15	28	46.43%	53.57%
December	21	14	14	28	50.00%	50.00%
December	22	13	14	27	48.15%	51.85%
December	23	10	17	27	37.04%	62.96%
December	24	16	12	28	57.14%	42.86%
December	25	20	6	26	76.92%	23.08%
December	26	17	10	27	62.96%	37.04%
December	27	17	11	28	60.71%	39.29%
December	28	15	13	28	53.57%	46.43%
December	29	10	17	27	37.04%	62.96%
December	30	12	16	28	42.86%	57.14%
December	31	15	13	28	53.57%	46.43%
Month	Day	Closed Bullish	Closed Bearish	Total	Bullish Day Probability	Bearish Day Probability

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QUICK TIP: Use the filters above or the search bar at the top to quickly locate and sort the probabilities associated with specific months and days. This allows you to easily find the data you need for making informed decisions.

FAQ: Your Top Questions Answered!

Find answers to your top questions about our USD/JPY dataset below. Need more in-depth help about the charts and datasets presented? Contact us directly – we’re always happy to support your trading journey!

“Occurrences” or “Events” simply mean the number of times a specific pattern or event happened in our historical price data.

Examples:

Consecutive Days: If you see “545 occurrences for three consecutive bullish days,” it means we found 545 instances where the price went up for three days in a row, then went down on the fourth day.

Specific Patterns: If a candlestick pattern, like a “pin bar,” has 720 occurrences, it means that pattern showed up 720 times in our data.

Why it Matters:

The more occurrences we see (the larger the sample size), the more reliable the associated probabilities and insights are, as we have more data to base our conclusions on.

The probability percentages tell you how likely a specific outcome is according to how often it happened in the past.

Think of it like flipping a coin:

If Monday holds a 76% probability of closing bullish, that means the market should close bullish roughly 76 times out of every 100 Mondays, based on historical data. Just like a coin has a 50/50 chance of landing heads or tails, these probabilities help you “weigh” the odds for different market scenarios.

A higher percentage means a greater chance of that particular event happening again.

Our current analysis primarily focuses on the daily timeframe, with each data point representing a single trading day. However, we’re continuously expanding our research and are excited to soon offer insights from shorter timeframes, such as 1-hour and 5-minute charts.

Expect even more granular data and potential trading opportunities.

Stay tuned for updates!

Our foundational data is sourced from Barchart Premium, a recognized industry leader in market information, ensuring the accuracy and reliability of our analysis.

We then apply rigorous internal quality checks to further validate our findings.

You’ll often notice high occurrence counts for high-probability events in our analysis. This is a testament to the extensive amount of price data we process, underscoring the robustness and reliability of our statistical insights.

Rest assured: Our data-driven conclusions are always backed by thorough analysis.

We update our analysis at the beginning of each year to ensure you’re always working with the most relevant market data.

While you might notice frequent updates for high-probability events, adjustments to probabilities require more time. This is because we rely on a substantial sample size to ensure any changes are statistically significant and not just random fluctuations.

Our goal is to provide trustworthy insights that give you a true edge. Sometimes, that means waiting for enough new data to make meaningful updates to those core probabilities.

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Get ready for a weekly dose of trading insights!

We’re constantly expanding our arsenal of game-changing charts, datasets, and probability figures to enhance your trading. Stay tuned for exciting updates that will revolutionize your analysis and decision-making.

The charts and datasets you see now are just the beginning of what we plan to offer.

Here’s a sneak peek of what’s coming soon:

Scalping & Intraday Strategies:
High-probability setups and market events revealed on the 1-hour and 5-minute charts, allowing you to further capitalize on short-term moves.

Pin Bar Mastery:
Dive into pin bar probabilities, understanding how time of day, wick size, and market conditions impact success rates.

Profit From Extreames:

Strategies tailored around unique events like new 30-day highs/lows, increasing your chances of catching significant moves.

We’re committed to providing the most comprehensive probability-based FX analysis suite.

Stay tuned for updates!