USD/JPY: Daily High/Low Range Figures
Explore USD/JPY's daily high/low range behavior from January 8th, 1980, to January 1st, 2023. Uncover the frequency and probability of Highs and Lows forming at specific distances from the Open price, providing invaluable insights for informed trading decisions. These insights can help you set tighter, data-backed stops and assess the remaining potential of each days price movement based on historical patterns.
Dataset Overview
- Average Trading Volume: 68400
- Start Of Data Range: 09 January, 1980
- End Of Data Range: 01 January, 2023
- Highest Closing Price: 30 September 1982 (277.46)
- Lowest Closing Price: 28 October 2011 (75.784)
- Day With Largest Gain: 28 October 2008 (5.24%)
- Day With Largest Loss: 07 October 1998 (-8.12%)
- Week With Largest Gain: 13 October 2008 (5.84%)
- Week With Largest Loss: 13 October 2008 (5.84%)
- Day With Highest Volume: 18 October 2012 (1542744)
- Day With Lowest Volume: 01 January 2018 (3369)
Volatility Statistics
- Mean: 0.006%
- Median: -0.001%
- Mode: 0.000%
- Standard Error: 0.08%
- Standard Deviation: 0.60%
- Sample Variance: 0.004%
- Kurtosis: 4.91
- Skewness: -0.05
- Range: 9.58%
- Minimum Price Change: -3.97%
- Maximum Price Change: 5.60%
General Probabilities
- Daily Close Bullish Probability: 51.6% (5761/11179 Days
- Daily Close Bearish Probability: 48.3% (5418/11179 Days
- Daily Lower Low Probability: 26.89% (1549/5761 Days)
- Daily Higher Low Probability: 71.67% (4129/5761Days)
- Daily Lower High Probability: 33.66% (1939/5761 Days)
- Daily Higher High Probability: 65.39% (3767/5761 Days)
- Daily Lower Low Probability: 64.38% (3488/2752 Days)
- Daily Higher Low Probability: 34.77% (1884/2752 Days)
- Daily Lower High Probability: 69.60% (3771/2752 Days)
- Daily Higher High Probability: 28.92% (1567/2752 Days)
Numbers Breakdown
- Total Bullish Days In Dataset: 5761/11179
- Total Bearish Days In Dataset: 5418/11179
- Number Of Bullish Weeks: 650 (650/1230)
- Number Of Bearish Weeks: 580 (580/1230)
- Number Of Bullish Months: 144 (144/284)
- Number Of Bearish Months: 140 (140/284)
- Total Number Of Days: 111799
- Total Number Of Weeks: 1230
- Total Number Of Months: 284
- Total Number Of Years: 43
Bullish Day Open-Low/High Range
The tables below outline the probability of bullish days forming a High or Low within a specific pip distance from the Open. Use the Open - Low Range to set effective stops and the Open - High Range to gauge the remaining potential of daily price moves. Check the "% Rolling" column to see the probability of price forming a Low or High under a given range from the Open.
How Can I Use The Data?
Set your stop loss 40 pips below the Open price on bullish days.
Given that 78.43% of bullish days form a low within 40 pips of the Open, this offers high chance (78.43%) your stop loss won't be hit, minimizing stop outs unnecessary exits. If you're comfortable with a slightly higher risk, consider setting your stop loss 30 pips below the Open. This provides a balance between protecting your capital and allowing the trade room to breathe.
How Can I Use The Data?
The higher price rises, the less chance of further up-movement.
72.35% of bullish days form a high within 100 pips of the Open. This means buying after a 100 pip rise gives you only a 27.65% chance of profiting from any further up-movement during the day. If you're already holding a position open or trade intra-day, consider taking partial or full profits once price moves 100 pips or more from the open. Price is far more likely to retrace than continue rising.
How Can I Use The Data?
Most large bullish price moves tail off and close beneath the daily high.
72.10% of bullish days close within 70 pips of the Open, but only 51.73% of days form a high within 70 pips of the open. So, price rises much further than it closes during bullish days. This data further highlights why taking profits at the peak of large bullish days is so important. It also means fading large rises can provide profitable bullish scalps.
Key Trading Insights (Bullish Days)
The table above shows 72.35% of all bullish days form a high within 100 pips of the opening price. When price approaches or surpasses the 100 pip mark above the open on a bullish day, it suggests a significant portion of the day's upward potential may have been realized.
This doesn't mean price can't go higher, but the majority (72.35%) of bullish days have historically formed a high below 100 pips.
Key Trading Takeaways:
1) Use the 100 pip level as a potential profit-taking trigger on bullish days (only 27.65% of days close higher!)
2) Be cautious about chasing further gains if a high forms 100 pips from the open.
3) Consider adjusting profit targets or tightening stop-loss orders if price forms a high 100 pips away.
4) Use the distances to help time reversals at key technical points (SD Zones/Psychological Levels).
5) If price moves 70 pips from the open, the high holds around a 50/50 chance of breaking or holding (51.73%)
6) Don't secure profits unless price moves at least 30 pips from the Open: Only 12.87% of days form a high lower.
Bearish Day Open-High/Low Range
The tables below outline the probability of bearish days forming a High or Low within a specific pip distance from the Open. Use the Open - High Range to set effective stops and the Open - Low Range to gauge the remaining potential of daily price moves. Check the "% Rolling" column to see the probability of price forming a Low or High under a given range from the Open.
How Can I Use The Data?
Set your stop loss 40 pips above the Open price on bearish days.
Given that 81.27% of bearish days form a high within 60 pips of the Open, this offers high chance (81.27%) your stop loss won't be hit, minimizing stop outs unnecessary exits. If you're comfortable with a slightly higher risk, consider setting your stop loss 30 pips above the Open. This provides a balance between protecting your capital and allowing the trade room to breathe.
How Can I Use The Data?
The lower price falls, the less chance of further down-movement.
74.40% of bearish days form a low within 110 pips of the Open. This means selling after a 110 pip decline gives you only a 25.60% chance of profiting from any further down-movement during the day. If you're holding a position open or trade intra-day, consider taking partial or full profits once price moves 110 pips or more from the open. Price is far more likely to retrace than continue falling.
How Can I Use The Data?
Most large bearish price moves tail off and close above the daily low.
71.15% of bearish days close within 70 pips of the Open, but only 49.46% of days form a low within 70 pips of the open. So, price falls much further than it actually closes during bearish days. This data further highlights why taking profits at the peak of large bearish days is so important. It also means fading large declines can provide profitable bearish scalps.
Key Trading Insights (Bearish Days)
The table above shows 74.40% of all bearish days form a Low within 110 pips of the opening price. When price approaches the 110 pip mark below the open on a bearish day, it suggests a significant portion of the day's downward potential may have been realized.
While further downside movement is possible, 74.40% of bearish days historically establish their low within 110 pips of the open.
Key Trading Takeaways:
1) Profit Taking: Consider taking profits on bearish days when price reaches 110 pips below the open.
2) Be wary of chasing further downside once price hits 110 pips below the open.
3) If a low forms 110 pips away from the open, consider tightening your stop-loss or adjusting profit targets.
4) Use these distances to anticipate reversals at key technical levels like S&D zones or psychological numbers.
5) At 70 pips from the open, the odds of price falling further vs forming a low are almost even (49.46%)
6) Avoid taking profits until price moves at least 30 pips from the open: 12.42% of days form a low higher than 30.
FAQ: Your Top Questions Answered!
Find answers to your top questions about our USD/JPY dataset below. Need more in-depth help about the charts and datasets presented? Contact us directly – we're always happy to support your trading journey!