USD/JPY Bearish Range
Distribution
Comprehensive analysis of how far USD/JPY closes below the daily open on bearish sessions. Based on 5,418 bearish days spanning 24+ years.
Open–Close Range Distribution
| Range (Pips) | Days | % of Total | Distribution | Rolling % |
|---|
Rolling % = cumulative probability of closing at least that pip range on a bearish day.
Open-Close Cumulative Distribution
Close Range Distribution Histogram
10–100 pip range dominates at 15.54% — prime net profit zone on bearish days.
Key Trading Insights
43% within 200 pips
The first 200 pips (0–10, 10–100, 100–200) account for 42.97% of closes, showing consistent net bearish follow-through.
64.4% beyond 400 pips
The close reaches or exceeds 400 pips on 64.4% of days — reliable threshold for daily profit taking.
6.74% >1500 pips
Large 6.74% of bearish days close more than 1500 pips lower — powerful one-way follow-through possible.
90.6% within 1100 pips
Most bearish days close within 1100 pips of the open — effective final target range for swing shorts.
Trading Application — Open to Close
How to deploy net range data for end-of-day planning & profit targets on bearish USD/JPY sessions.
Target 250–350 pips
Covers 54% to 64% of closes (54.78% at 300 pips). High probability zone.
Scale-out: 800–900 pips
~87% coverage (85.04% at 800 pips). Balance between trend extension and probability.
Exit in 400–600 pip zone
Majority of closes concentrate; 64–77% probability. Let profits run with trailing stop.
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Explore Our USD/JPY Datasets
Dive deeper into specific aspects of USD/JPY price action.
Bearish Day Open – Low Range Frequency
Distribution of how far price falls from the daily open to the session low on bearish days.
Bearish Day Open – High Range Frequency
How far price pushes above the daily open before reversing on bearish days — rejection percentile distributions.
Consecutive Lower Low Streaks
Frequency and success rate of consecutive daily lower lows forming across tracked history.
USD/CAD Bearish Open – Close Range
Compare bearish open-close range distributions on USD/CAD — a highly correlated USD pair.
USD/CHF Bearish Open – Close Range
Compare bearish open-close range distributions on USD/CHF — the direct EUR strength cross.
USD/JPY Data Hub
The full USD/JPY dataset library — streaks, ranges, calendars, and key statistics in one place.