USD/JPY Consecutive
Lower Low Day Statistics
Data-focused USD/JPY Daily lower low streak research uncovering the relationship between consecutive bearish sessions, declining momentum strength, and increasing mean reversion probability.
Consecutive Lower Low Day Probabilities
Lower Low Breakdown
| Streak (Lower Lows) | Occurrences | Continue % | Reversal % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Day | 1290 | 49.31% | 50.69% |
| 2 Day | 717 | 27.41% | 72.59% |
| 3 Day Signal | 309 | 11.81% | 88.19% |
| 4 Day | 159 | 6.08% | 93.92% |
| 5 Day | 79 | 3.02% | 96.98% |
| 6 Day | 32 | 1.22% | 98.78% |
| 7 Day | 19 | 0.73% | 99.27% |
| 8 Day | 8 | 0.31% | 99.69% |
| 9 Day | 2 | 0.08% | 99.92% |
| 10 Day | 1 | 0.04% | 99.96% |
| 11+ Day | 0 | 0.00% | 100.00% |
Maximum recorded streak: 10 consecutive lower lows. Beyond 5 days, reversal probability exceeds 96%.
Lower Low Streak Distribution
Most lower low streaks end within 2 days; longer streaks become increasingly rare.
Reversal Probability by Lower Low Streak
After 3 consecutive lower lows, reversal probability exceeds 88% — a high-confidence mean-reversion signal.
Lower Low Continuation vs Reversal
Key Trading Insights
Single-Day Lower Lows Are Most Common
1,290 occurrences — reflecting the choppy price action of USD/JPY. A single lower low provides no strong directional edge.
Two-Day Lower Lows Resist Continuation
After 2 lower lows, only 27.41% continue — 72.59% reverse. Weak bearish persistence.
Three Days Signals Very High Reversal
After 3 lower lows, 88.19% reverse. Only 11.81% continue — powerful mean-reversion trigger for long entries.
Extended Downward Streaks Are Rare
Only 6.08% of streaks last 4+ days. Beyond 5 days, reversal >96%. Maximum observed: 10 days.
Extended streaks of consecutive lower lows demonstrate increasing bearish momentum but also exhaustion. After 3+ lower lows, reversal probability exceeds 88%. Consider:
Explore Our USD/JPY Datasets
Dive deeper into specific aspects of USD/JPY price action.
Bearish Day Streak Probability
How likely a bearish close follows another — probability distributions for consecutive bearish daily candle streaks.
Bearish Day Open – Low Range Frequency
Distribution of how far price falls from the daily open to the session low on bearish days.
Bearish Day Open – Close Range Frequency
How far from the daily open price closes on bearish days — range percentile distributions.
USD/CHF Lower Low Streaks
Compare consecutive lower low streak probabilities on USD/CHF — the direct EUR strength cross.
USD/CAD Lower Low Streaks
Compare consecutive lower low streak probabilities on USD/CAD — a highly correlated USD pair.
USD/JPY Data Hub
The full USD/JPY dataset library — streaks, ranges, calendars, and key statistics in one place.